AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Relief Pitching
The Daily Jay continues to compare the teams most likely to compete for the AL 2nd wild card with relief pitching today. Click the links to find the write-ups on catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field, center field, right field, starting pitching part 1 and part 2. This series uses Fangraphs depth charts projections which rely on Steamer and Zips projection systems. The Blue Jays project as the second wild card team with 87 wins. The Angels, Twins, Rangers, and Mariners also project to be in the wild card conversation. The Rays and Athletics are dark horse candidates.
The Mariners have the best projected bullpen among 2nd wild card contenders with a 3.7 fWAR projection. Young fireballer Edwin Diaz accounts for 1.5 fWAR of that projection. Diaz was utterly dominant in his debut in 2016, and was still solid as a sophomore in 2017. Based on what we have seen from him so far, a 1.5 projection is very reasonable and if he regains some of his 2016 mojo he could end up as one of the very best relievers in baseball. Beyond Diaz are pitchers such as Juan Nicasio, Nick Vincent, David Phelps, James Pazos and Marc Rzepczynski. It's not a bullpen full of marquee names, but one that could be surprisingly effective despite a lack of star power. Nicasio quietly put up a 1.4 fWAR season as a reliever last season. Nick Vincent has a career 3.00 ERA as a control artist who rarely gives up home runs despite a flyball heavy approach. Phelps had a 1.9 fWAR season in the Marlins bullpen in 2016 and was solid again last year. James Pazos was apparently a pitcher that a lot of teams requested in trade talks with the Mariners, but they refused to give him up. As a pitcher who generates a lot of strikeouts and groundballs it's easy to see why they wanted to hang onto him. Tony Zych will probably miss the start of the season with an elbow issue, but he had a 2.66 ERA last season and could be a strong reinforcement once healthy. They aren't the flashiest bunch of relievers, but the Mariners have a lot of options to get outs late in the game.
The Twins fortified their bullpen this offseason with a number of veteran free agent signings and project to provide 3.0 fWAR. Fernando Rodney is currently slated as the team's closer. The soon-to-be 41 year old reliever still generates strikeouts and groundballs and was worth 1.4 fWAR last season. The projections see his strikeout rate declining and his home run rate more than doubling in 2018, yet his ERA will be slightly lower at 4.18. Rodney had a 61.1 LOB% last year and that led to a 4.23 ERA despite solid peripherals. Addison Reed has re-invented himself as one of the game's premiere strikeout to walk ratio pitchers. The projections may be a little low on him. He increased his swinging strike rate as well as his chase rate and actually saw his strikeout rate decline. The projections expect his strikeout rate to decline further, but if he maintains those swinging strike and chase rates I expect him to have a very good strikeout rate in 2018. I expect him to replace Rodney as the team's closer by mid-season. Trevor Hildenberger had a very good rookie season in 2017 and I expect him to be even better in 2018. The projections have him repeating last year's 0.8 fWAR. He mostly uses his sinker and changeup to generate loads of groundballs and he rarely walks batters. The Twins middle relievers include the likes of Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly, Taylor Duffey and Zach Duke. John Curtiss is a name worth watching as someone who could come into the bullpen at some point and make a difference for the Twins. Most of the value in this bullpen comes from their late inning relievers and if they falter the Twins may have trouble fielding a bullpen worthy of a contender.
The Angels also project at 3.0 fWAR. Cam Bedrosian and Blake Parker highlight Mike Scioscia's bullpen. Blake Parker is a name not a lot of people aside from Angels fans are aware of, but that could change soon. He was worth 1.6 fWAR last season and projects an excellent 1.2 in 2018. Bedrosian had a disappointing 4.43 ERA in 2017 after having a sparkling 1.12 the year before. LOB% was the culprit for both those ERAs and Bedrosian's true talent is that of a mid 3 ERA type of pitcher. He projects a solid 0.9 fWAR. Keynan Middleton has a very good fastball and should play an important role in this bullpen. Jim Johnson has one good season mixed in with 3 lousy ones. Jose Alvarez is an above average reliever who doesn't blow anybody away, but still gets the job done. Blake Wood had a 5.45 ERA last year, but is a solid bounce back candidate considering his strong peripheral numbers. Overall, this group of pitchers is talented and uninspiring at the same time.
The Blue Jays project to have a 2.9 fWAR bullpen. Roberto Osuna leads the way with a 1.6 projection. Osuna is an elite strikeout to walk ratio pitcher, but due to his tendency to give up a lot of flyballs he will be susceptible to home runs. If he manages to give up more solo shots than 3 run homers he should have a very good ERA at the end of the season. Ryan Tepera emerged as an important member of the bullpen last year and the prjections see him repeating most of what he did last year. The projections like Danny Barnes' chances of increasing his strikeout rate and lowering his walk rate. However, as a flyball pitcher the projections also foresee him giving up a lot of home runs. The projections see him being a roughly average relief pitcher. Aaron Loup gets a bad rap for not being a typical lefty and for having a couple down seasons in 2015-2016. However, Loup has a career ERA well below league average and he showed a return to form last season with an ERA 23% below league average. He has the peripheral numbers to back up the low ERAand the projections see another strong season in store for Loup. The projections are not a fan of Carlos Ramirez. The projections see a pitcher with very bad control who also gives up a lot of home runs. The projections are right about the home runs, but they may be missing some of the picture in regards to the walks. Ramirez is a converted position player and his early years as a pitcher saw him produce poor walk totals. The projections factor those numbers in without the knowledge that he is a much less experienced pitcher compared to most. Ramirez had very good walk totals last season and was very successful as a result. If Ramirez indeed is a pitcher with poor control, then yeah, he's going to be very bad. Keep an eye on that walk rate if you want to know what quality of pitcher he will be. Seung Hwan Oh is a pitcher that the two projection systems used by Fangraphs do not agree on. Steamer has OH being a replacement level pitcher with a 4.62 ERA, while Zips sees him being worth 0.8 fWAR with a 3.39 ERA. Let's hope Zips wins this one. Tyler Clippard has not been added to the Blue Jays depth chart, but once he is the Blue Jays projected bullpen fWAR should be equal or even leap frog those of the Angels and Twins. Overall, this is a quality bullpen with lots of options for John Gibbons.
The Athletics Bullpen projects 2.7 fWAR. Blake Treinen is an underrated reliever. He was worth 1.3 fWAR last year and projects 1.1 in 2018. He is one of the better groundball pitchers in the league which means he doesn't give up a lot of home runs. His career best ERA is 2.28 and his worst mark was the 3.93 he produced last season. Considering his worst is still above average and his best is borderline elite, he is a reliever that deserves quite a bit of respect. Yusmeiro Petit has been underrated his entire career and was extremely effective last season as a long reliever for the Angels. He produced 2.2 fWAR and a 2.76 ERA in 91.1 innings. Liam Hendriks' ERA has yet to catch up to his terrific FIP as a reliever. If his results start to fall in line with his peripheral numbers he should be a very valuable part of Oakland's bullpen. The rest of the bullpen consists of pitchers who project to be around league average such as Chris Hatcher, Santiago Casilla, Emilio Pagan and Ryan Buchter. Daniel Coulombe and Frankie Montas both project to be above average. This isn't a particularly good bullpen, but it does contain a few interesting pitchers and they could end up better than their projected 22nd rank in baseball. They probably lack the upside to be top 10 though.
The Rays are projected to receive 2.5 fWAR from their bullpen. Considering 1.5 of that projects to come from Alex Colome and Dan Jennings, a couple pitchers who probably won't even finish the season with the Rays, the less I say about this bullpen the better.
The Rangers project to receive 2.4 fWAR from their bullpen. 1.1 fWAR of that comes from Alex Claudio. Claudio is not really a name you think of when you think of shutdown relievers, but he has a 2.66 career ERA. He's not your typical strikeout machine reliever, but instead gets by with an elite groundball rate and giving out few walks. It's not the most exciting profile for a reliever, but it's a great way to be consistent. Jake Diekman missed a lot of last season. When healthy he is a good reliever and he could end up closing games for the Rangers if they don't end up going with Claudio. Keone Kela is another great arm in this Rangers bullpen. He had a 2.79 ERA last season and it's easy to see him back around that number again in 2018. The Rangers may use Matt Bush as a starter this season. If he doesn't make the rotation he could have the inside track to being the Rangers closer. He has been a successful reliever the past 2 seasons. Tim Lincecum signed with the Rangers, so there's that.
Bullpens are extremely volatile which makes them very difficult to project. All relievers deal in small sample sizes so their season numbers can get thrown off with a couple bad appearances or a run of bad luck. Failed starters often emerge as elite relievers, or nobodies suddenly become somebodies. The best thing a team can do is give themselves plenty of options to choose from and let the cream rise to the top. The Blue Jays have a decent amount of depth in the bullpen. Ideally they would have more proven arms to choose from. Comparing them to the other teams in the hunt for the second wild card they sit in a fairly good position. When it comes to the back end of the bullpen they're as good as anyone with Roberto Osuna. It's hard to be as confident with their set-up relievers. Tepera was great last year, but will need to prove he can do it again. Oh was an elite reliever in 2016, but so-so in 2017. There is potential for it to be a strength, but it could also be a weak spot for Toronto. As for the middle relievers, Toronto is as deep as any of these other teams. The bullpen looked like a weak spot for Toronto heading into last season and it ended up being one of the few bright spots. It's hard to know what to expect.
