AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Shortstop
Fangraphs Depth Charts projects the Blue Jays as the 5th best team in the AL, making them the projected front-runner for the second wild card. Their main competition for that spot are most likely the Angels, Twins, Rangers, and Mariners. The Rays and Athletics are darkhorse contenders. Continuing The Daily Jay's look at the depth charts position by position we will take a look at the shortstops. I am basing the projections on the Fangraphs Depth Charts, which rely on the Steamer and Zips projection systems.
So far we have covered catcher, first base and second base.
The Angels have the best shortstop situation among wild card contenders. Andrelton Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the game and in 2017 he had his best offensive season since he was a rookie. Fangraph's Depth Charts have Simmons projected for 3.8 fWAR next season. The combined projections see Simmons' bat regressing part way toward his career norms. His career wrc+ is 89 and the projection sees him producing 92, down from the 103 he posted last year. The Angels also have newly acquired Zack Cozart on hand in case Simmons misses time. Cozart will play third base for the Angels, but he is a solid shortstop in his own right. The Angels are set up very well at shortstop.
The Blue Jays come project to receive 2.6 fWAR at shortstop. Steamer sees a major bounceback season from Tulowitzki. After being worth 0.0 fWAR in 2017, Steamer sees him producing 2.2 fWAR in 2018. The projections don't see Tulo repeating last year's 78 wrc+. Last year was the first time in 8 seasons that Tulowitzki had a wrc+ below league average and projections see him getting closer to average with a 97 wrc+. Aledmys Diaz also figures into the SS equation with 91 plate appearances worth 0.3 fWAR. Yangervis Solarte, Richard Urena and Lourdes Gurriel could also factor into the Jays shortstop situation. The Blue Jays are in a much better place than they were at this point last season with much more depth. However, the 2.6 fWAR projection feels very optimistic. Tulo did not hit the ball well last year and his xwOBA supports the stats that say he had a weak bat. Injuries may have contributed to his decline. Hopefully Tulo has more left in the tank otherwise the Jays may struggle to get value at the shortstop position.
Fangraphs sees the Athletics receiving 2.4 fWAR at shortstop. Marcus Semien has been consistent with the bat over the past 3 seasons with wrc+ totals of 97,98 and 96. Depth Charts sees the power he had in 2016 returning and project him to have his first above average season at the plate with a 102 wrc+. Semien showed above average power as a minor leaguer so it isn't unreasonable to think he could do it again in the majors. Franklin Barreto is behind Semien on the depth chart and is decent insurance in case of injury. Barreto projects for a modest 77 wrc+ but has upside to do much more than that. Jorge Mateo is another prospect who could have an impact in the majors soon, but he will need some seasoning in AAA first.
The Rangers got excellent production from Elvis Andrus last season, but Depth Charts isn't seeing a repeat of last year's 4.1 fWAR. Andrus is projected for 2.1 fWAR and the Rangers as a whole are expected to produce 2.2 fWAR at SS. Steamer isn't buying Andrus' power breakout. After hitting 20 home runs and a .174 ISO in 2017, Steamer sees 12 home runs and a .133 ISO. Zips forecasts similar results. Backing up Andrus is Jurickson Profar. The former top prospect has struggled with injuries, but had an excellent year in AAA and will still be just 25 years old this season. If Andrus goes down with injury the Rangers will have a talented young player with something to prove taking his place.
The Twins project to receive 2.1 fWAR due to Jorge Polanco's breakout in the second half of 2017. Polanco was worth 1.6 fWAR in 2017, but Depth Charts sees him being worth 1.8 in 2018. Steamer sees Polanco's bat approaching league average with a 99 wrc+ to go along with passable defence. Zips disagrees and sees Polanco producing a 88 wrc+. Ehire Adrianza is a strong defender with just enough bat to be a borderline starter. Much of the Twins production at shortstop will rely on Polanco's late season gains carrying through the entire season of 2018. If Zips is correct then the Twins will receive below average production at shortstop.
The Mariners traded for Jean Segura last offseason and he didn't disappoint in his first year with the team. Segura produced 2.9 fWAR and projects at 2.0 in 2018. Most of the decline is because the projections do not see a repeat of the .339 BABIP that he had last year. Segura is not a particularly strong defender so his bat will have to do most of the heavy lifting if he hopes to be a valuable player. He is speedy, but he had a poor base running season in 2017. Behind Segura on the depth chart is Zach Vincej, Taylor Motter and Andrew Romine. Motter has the most upside of the trio, but he has yet to produce at the major league level. The Mariners have the potential to have a strong shortstop situation, but the floor is also low.
For the Rays Adeiny Hechavarria is currently the projected starter. He is a solid defender, but provides next to nothing with the bat. Depth Charts sees him producing a 77 wrc+ and 1.2 fWAR. In case Hechavarria doesn't work out they have Christian Arroyo, Daniel Robertson, Matt Duffy and Willy Adames on hand. Overall, the group projects to produce 1.4 fWAR in 2018. The projections are low for the Rays in the infield, but they have multiple options and will be able to go with whoever is producing the most. They could be a disaster in the infield, or they could outproduce their projections significantly if someone steps up and has a breakout season.
The Blue Jays sit second among these wild card contenders at shortstop, but they are anything but solid there. If the Tulo we saw in 2017 is what we can expect going forward, the Jays could be in trouble. Fortunately the front office went out and got some upside with the Aledmys Diaz trade. It's hard to be confident in the team's shortstops, but there is a definite possibility that it could be a productive position. However, the Jays are not alone. Aside from the Angels, all of the wild card contenders have a wide variance in what could possibly happen at the position.
