AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Center Field
Fangraphs Depth Charts project the Toronto blue Jays to finish with a 87-75 record and take the 2nd wild card. The Daily Jay is taking an in-depth look at every position and how the most likely wild card contenders stack up against one another. So far The Daily Jay has covered catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base and left field. Today we will look at the center field situations of the Blue Jays, Angels, Twins Mariners, Rangers, A's and Rays.
It should come as a surprise to nobody that the Angels have the best center field situation of every team in baseball, let alone the wild card contenders. Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball since his rookie season and last year he took a step forward with the bat. His walks were at a career high 18.5% and he cut his strikeouts below the league average to 17.8%. As if that wasn't enough, he took his power to new levels and hit an absurd .323 ISO. Trout's projected 8.2 fWAR is twice that of any other center fielder in the game. Trout missed a quarter of the season with a thumb injury and was still worth 6.9 fWAR. If Trout misses significant time again in 2018, it would be a major blow to the Angels playoff chances. Behind Trout on the depth chart is the newly acquired Chris Young. Young is a fine fourth outfielder at this stage of his career, but if he were to be counted on as a starter he would likely provide below average production. Michael Hermosillo has made improvements over the past 2 seasons that could make him a major league quality player, but if he were to be pushed into playing time for the Angels in 2018 he would likely struggle to be much more than a replacement level player. It's hard to see the Angels competing without a healthy season from Trout.
If the Rays are going to have any hope of surprising people and competing for the playoffs they will need a big season from Kevin Kiermaier. Kiermaier is the second highest projected center fielder behind Trout with 4.1 fWAR. Kiermaier's otherworldly glove took a big step backwards in 2017, but he did provide his finest season with the bat. He has been worth at least 3.0 fWAR in each of his 4 major league seasons and has been one of the game's most valuable players when on the field. But therein lies the problem. Kiermaier has missed significant time each of the past 2 seasons. Mallex Smith and Carlos Gomez are both capable of playing center field, but they are currently the starters in the corners, so the Rays would still have to find someone to play one of the corners in Kiermaier's absence. As much as the Angel's playoff hopes rely on a healthy season for Trout, the same can be said for the Rays and Kiermaier.
The Twins finally got the breakout season they had been waited for from Byron Buxton. The toolsy speedster turned his raw talent into production and took home the AL center field gold glove. Buxton will struggle to be anything more than a below average hitter as long as his strikeout rate hovers around 30%. The projections see him producing 3.5 fWAR, equal to last year's total. His wrc+ is projected to improve 4 points to 94. If Buxton somehow manages to cut the strikeouts down to the low-to-mid 20s then lookout! Buxton has the power to be a 7 fWAR player if he manages to make more contact and reach base more often. Regardless of whether he can cut the Ks, his elite defence and base running ensure he will be a well above average center fielder for the foreseeable future. Behind Buxton is Zack Granite. Granite has excellent speed, but major league pitchers can knock the bat out of his hands. He is most likely headed to a career as a fourth outfielder/ pinch runner. Granite's very low strikeout rate could give him just enough offensive upside to be a half decent starting center fielder, but he would have to maximize his other tools.
The Blue Jays project to receive 3.0 fWAR at center field due to a slight bounce back from Kevin Pillar and positive part-time contributions from Randall Grichuk and Curtis Granderson. Pillar projects to provide 2.7 fWAR over 630 plate appearances. His bat is expected to improve slightly on last years 85 wrc+, up to 89. Pillar doesn't walk or hit for enough power to be considered among the game's best center fielders, but he makes elite contact and that keeps his bat from being completely worthless. If he can somehow improve his plate discipline or get lucky and benefit from a fortunate BABIP he could find himself producing his first ever above average batting line. With neither of those scenarios being very likely we are stuck with the current version of Pillar which is more than adequate. His elite defence provides most of his value and if the Jays can get 2.7 fWAR from him they can consider his season a success. Randall Grichuk can fill in for Pillar if he goes down with injury and Grichuk would likely put up similar fWAR results to Pillar, just doing it more through power. Anthony Alford will be waiting for his chance in AAA and could be a true leadoff hitter who gets on base and causes problems on the basepaths. Dalton Pompey is a bit of a forgotten man in the Jays system, but he is still only 25 and has a track record of excellent defence, good OBP and great base running. If Pillar misses time or fails to produce, the Jays are well positioned to have someone capable of getting the job done.
The Mariners decided to be bold and traded for Dee Gordon as their new center fielder. Gordon has not played center field in the major leagues, but due to his elite speed the Mariners are willing to take a chance on him. It's a risk worth taking and due to Gordon's speed I expect him to be a success there. Gordon's projected 84 wrc+ is probably close to accurate, but his 1.9 fWAR may be light. Gordon could provide as much as a full win more than his projection. Guillermo Heredia is on hand as Gordon's back-up and he should provide average defence in center but a weak bat. Cam Perkins made his MLB debut last year after a strong minor league career at the plate, but Perkin's bat fell flat at the highest level. Mitch Haniger is capable of filling in at center in a pinch, but that would then open up a hole in right field. The Mariners outfield depth could be their Achilles heel this year. Jon Jay remains on the free agent market and he would be a wise target for the Mariners.
The Rangers got a strong 2.3 fWAR season from Delino Deshields Jr last season, but Fangraphs projects him for only 1.1 fWAR in 2018. The drop is mostly due to Steamer and Zips projections not buying into last year's .358 BABIP. The projections may be light on his defence due to his very poor 2015 in the field. Deshields takes a lot of walks, which ensures he has a solid on base percentage and can take advantage of his blistering speed. 1.1 fWAR projection is probably low for Deshields, but last year's 2.3 fWAR is probably his ceiling unless there's a major shift in either his power or contact skills. We also can't write off his 55 wrc+ from 2016 which made him basically a replacement level player. Behind Deshields is Carlos Tocci and Drew Robinson. Robinson's power bat gives him some upside that could make him a surprising contributor for the Rangers. Most likely though, Robinson and Tocci would probably struggle to provide even 1 fWAR if pushed into a starting role.
The Athletics have a lot riding on Dustin Fowler's recovery from his freak knee injury in his MLB debut last year. He is slated as their starting center fielder. The A's are projected to receive just 1.1 fWAR from the position, with 0.6 coming from Fowler and 0.4 from Boog Powell. Jake Smolinski is projected to contribute the remaining 0.1 fWAR in limited playing time. Defensively, Fowler is probably better suited in a corner, but the A's lack options in center so he will probably receive the lion's share of playing time. Fowler has some power and should strike out below the league average, but a lack of walks limits him offensive upside. The overall package is that of a below average center fielder. Boog Powell is more of a true center fielder defensively and has the on base skills that could make him force his way into the starting role. He has no power to speak of and his strikeouts jumped in is major league debut last year so his offensive production could be susceptible to the whims of BABIP. He has run high BABIPS throughout his minor league career and was at .349 in his rookie season last year. If the A's find themselves in contention ate in the season it could be in part because of above average production from Powell in center field. Along with Chapman and Olson, Powell could be a key to their contention.
In center field the Blue Jays are middle of the pack among wild card contenders. They have more depth than any other team, so their playoff hopes don't rest on the health of one player in the way they do with the Angels and Rays. The Jays' upside is limited at the position, but they should at the very least receive average production there.
