AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Starting Pitching Part 2
The Daily Jay continues to compare the teams most likely to compete for the AL 2nd wild card with starting pitching today. Click the links to find the write-ups on catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field, center field, and right field. This series uses Fangraphs depth charts projections which rely on Steamer and Zips projection systems. The Blue Jays project as the second wild card team with 87 wins. The Angels, Twins, Rangers, and Mariners also project to be in the wild card conversation. The Rays and Athletics are dark horse candidates. You can find part 1 about starting pitching here
Rays 14.7 fWAR
Blue Jays 13.6 fWAR
Angels 11.6 fWAR
The Mariners have the 4th best projected rotation with 11.6 fWAR. James Paxton leads the team with a 4.2 projection. The big Canadian lefty has been very good over the past 2 seasons, but has failed to make it through either season healthy. Depth Charts sees him pitching a career high 172 innings in 2018 after setting a new career high of 136 in 2017. 2017's 4.6 fWAR is projected to come down due to the projection systems being skeptical that he can maintain a 10+ k/9 rate. If Paxton can make 32 starts he has the talent to put up 5+ fWAR and be a Cy Young candidate.
Mike Leake is projected as the Mariners' second best starting pitcher with a 2.4 fWAR. Leake is not a flashy pitcher that wows with awesome stuff, but he is consistent and can be counted on for 30 starts with an ERA around league average. His projection falls right in line with what he has down each year over the past half decade so there is no real reason to question it until something changes.
Felix Hernandez is no longer the dominant ace he once was. He remains a quality arm, but projects for just 1.9 fWAR rather than the 6 fWAR seasons we were used to seeing in his prime. Last season he was likely the victim of some unfortunate luck on flyballs that led to a 22.4% hr/fb. In 2018 he projects at a 4.30 ERA and given his recent peripheral numbers it feels about right. He has suffered from injuries the past 2 seasons and that may have played a large role in his declining stuff. It isn't unheard of for a veteran pitcher who appears on the decline to bounce back and become dominant again, so we can't write King Felix off just yet. If the Mariners are going to contend this year it's likely because they got yet another stellar season from Hernandez.
The back of the Mariners rotation tapers off quickly. Erasmo Ramirez is questionable for the start of the season and has been an inconsistent performer throughout his career. Ariel Miranda is slotted into the #5 spot of their rotation and will probably be hard pressed to do much more than be a replacement level pitcher. He is home run prone and has had terrible FIP numbers so far in his 2 MLB seasons. Hisashi Iwakuma was once one of the Mariners' most reliable pitchers, but he will turn 37 early in the season and has a lot of question marks surrounding the health of his shoulder. If he has one more healthy season in his arm it would be a major boost for a thin rotation.
Marco Gonzales and Andrew Moore are the Mariners upside pitchers. If one of them can step up and be a reliable mid-rotation starter it would help the Mariners playoff chances tremendously. Gonzales struggled mightily in his return from Tommy John surgery last year and Moore's rookie season yielded a disappointing 5.34 ERA and even worse supporting numbers.
The Twins project to receive 10.8 fWAR from their rotation in 2018. Ervin Santana led the team with 2.9 fWAR last season, but is expected to miss much of the first month of the season with a finger injury. Santana had a very good 3.28 ERA, but his 4.46 FIP and 4.77 xFIP suggest he could be a candidate for regression. The projections agree and have him down for a 4.46 ERA and 1.8 fWAR. He has a tendency of producing low-ish BABIP totals and the projections have him down for .302 in 2018 so there is a chance he could outperform his projections slightly if his BABIP comes in lower than that.
Jose Berrios is one of the top young arms in the game and he came through with a solid sophomore season after a disastrous 2016 rookie season. He was worth 2.8 fWAR in 2017 and the projections see him producing 2.6 in 2018. I would feel comfortable taking the over on that projection due to the numbers likely being low because of his dreadful 2016 performance. If Berrios strikes out more than a batter per inning he should have no problem putting up an ERA in the mid 3s.
In 2015 it looked like the Twins may have a pitcher that could lead their rotation in Kyle Gibson. After a solid 3.84 ERA in 2015 he has seen that number balloon to over 5 in each of the past 2 seasons. Fangraphs sees him bouncing back some and producing a 2.1 fWAR after having put up 1.1 fWAR in 2017. A key factor for Gibson will be whether he can lower his walk rate and get his home run rate to a better level. If he can get his groundball rate back up toward the mid-50s we could see him with another sub-4 ERA season.
The Twins didn't have to give up much to get Jake Odorizzi from the Rays. They are hoping he can bounce back from his 0.1 fWAR performance in 2017. The projection systems at Fangraphs seem to think he can and have him down for 1.3 fWAR. His ERA in 2017 was 4.14, but that number may have been due to quite a bit of good fortune. His 5.43 FIP suggests that it could have been a lot worse for the soon-to-be 28 year old. Even if his home run issues persist and his ERA catches up to his projected FIP he should be a decent enough back-end of the rotation arm for the Twins. With a career 3.83 ERA there is also upside for him to be more than just a back-end starter.
Anibal Sanchez's days as a quality starting pitcher seem to be over after 3 straight disappointing seasons, but that didn't stop the Twins from bringing him on as a potential option for their #5 spot. He has still had very good k/bb numbers, but in 2015 he suddenly became very homer prone. If he can get the home run issue under control he could be a surprising contributor to this rotation.
Adalberto Mejia was an adequate 5th starter last season and the Twins are hoping he can continue to make improvements in his second season. His walk rate was an issue as a rookie and it will need to come down if he wants to stick around. His minor league numbers suggest he should be capable of lowering his walk total to a more acceptable level.
The Trevor May rotation experiment may be over, especially now that he is set to miss nearly half the season with an elbow injury. However, if the Twins decide to give him one more go as a starter there's a chance that he could finally figure things out in the rotation and give the team another quality starter. It will be interesting to see what they decide to do with him when he returns and he could end up giving the rotation a nice mid-season boost.
Stephen Gonsalves is not well liked by the projections, but he could be an arm that outperforms those numbers and helps this Twins rotation be better than they appear on paper. He dominated the minor leagues before struggling in AAA last season. Keep an eye on him. Fernando Romero is another youngster who could make an impact in the Twins rotation this year.
After Cole Hamels the Rangers have a rotation full of back-end starters and project for 10.0 fWAR. Hamels had a career low 1.5 fWAR last season and at age 34 we have to begin wondering if this is the start of the decline phase for one of baseball's most consistent pitchers over the past decade. Fangraphs sees a rebound to 2.7 fWAR in 2018. His strikeout rate dropped 6.5% and the projections see it recovering 2% in 2018. That along with an extra 50 innings pitched account for most of the increased projected WAR.
Martin Perez has settled in as a league average inning eater. He has been dealing with some elbow issues but is probable for the start of the season. Fangraphs depth charts have him down for 23 starts and a 1.6 fWAR.
Doug Fister's strikeout rate per 9 innings was a career high 8.27 in 2017, but his walk rate was also his highest mark at 3.79. FIP liked his work and had him at 3.98, but his ERA was 4.88 due to issues stranding runners. LOB% often regresses to the mean so if last year's 63% returns to a more normal 70% we could see Doug Fister with an ERA in the low 4s and outproducing his projected 1.5 fWAR.
Matt Moore's star has faded after a very promising start to his career. The Rangers traded for him in hopes that he can rediscover what made him one of the top pitching prospects in the game. The projections are not optimistic and see him with another ERA over 5.
Mike Minor had a phenomenal return to the majors as a reliever last year and the Rangers signed him to start in 2018. If he can remain healthy and stick in the rotation he has top of the rotation potential. He was one of the game's top young starters in 2013 before injuries derailed his career.
Matt Bush could get a look as a starter this year. If he can make the transition and Minor remains healthy the Rangers could have a quality rotation. The Rangers have question marks at every single spot of their rotation and there aren't many high level prospects in the upper minors. There is a lot of upside for this rotation and it's not hard to see them outproducing their projected fWAR, but there is also a lot of downside that could see them struggle to field a quality starter on a daily basis.
The Athletics project just 9.6 fWAR from their rotation, but it features a lot of young arms who could breakout and give the A's more value than expected.
Kendall Graveman is a mid-rotation arm that isn't likely to do much more than 1.5-2 fWAR. He won't hurt the team when on the mound, but is unlikely to be the reason they contend.
Sean Manaea is a former top prospect who now has 2 quality seasons under his belt. He is projected for a 4.35 ERA and 2.2 fWAR and it wouldn't be surprising to see that ERA dip into the upper 3s with a fWAR over 2.5.
Daniel Mengden had a very good 3.14 ERA in 7 starts last year, but projections aren't buying his 1.88 BB/9and see him at a 4.76 ERA over a full season. If Mengden can keep his walks in the 2-2.5 per 9 range he could be a low 4 ERA pitcher and a quality arm in the middle of Oakland's rotation.
Andrew Triggs is yet another mid to low 4 ERA pitcher in Oakland's rotation. He is a converted reliever and he generates a lot of groundballs so he should do a good job keeping the ball in the park. If he can find a way to generate more strikeouts he could have an ERA under 4 and be a very strong starter for Oakland.
Jharel Cotton has the most upside in the A's rotation. He had very good k/bb numbers in the minors that have yet to translate to the majors. If he can find a way to strike out more than a batter per inning he could be very valuable.
Paul Blackburn has consistently put up ERAs in the low 3s in the minors and has a 3.22 ERA as a rookie last year in 10 starts despite a ludicrously low 3.38 k/9. He keeps the ball on the ground and limits the walks so even without the high strikeout numbers he can suppress runs. If the A's are going to be this year's surprise contenders they will need pitchers like Blackburn, Cotton and Manaea to pitch to their full potential.
The Blue Jays feature fewer question marks in their starting 5 than pretty much any other serious wild card contender. It's after their starting 5 that things could get dicey for Toronto. Minnesota has a lot of upside and if their rotation performs to their full potential it could be difficult for the Blue Jays to keep pace with them. The Angels will need everything to go right in their rotation and they could be undone by injuries very easily. If the Blue Jays are able to acquire a quality swingman like Trevor Cahill I would feel much more confident in their rotation's ability to carry the team this year.
