AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Catcher
The Astros, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees appear to be a step ahead of the rest of the American League on paper. While anything can happen over 162 games, there is a good chance that those teams will make up 4 of the 5 playoff spots. This leaves one spot up for grabs and there is a large group of teams that have a shot at sneaking into the postseason. Fangraphs depth charts projections put the Blue Jays as the team most likely to win the 2nd wild card with a 86-76 record. The Angels currently project to finish runner up at 84-74. The Twins, Mariners, and Rangers also figure to compete for a playoff spot. The Rays and Athletics are dark horse candidates. I would like to break down these contenders position by position comparing them to one another starting with catcher.
Among wild card contenders the Blue Jays are in the best position to succeed at catcher. When Martin was on the field last year he was still among the game's best, averaging 2.96 fWAR/600 compared to the league average of 1.84 at catcher. Fangraphs projects the Jays to receive 3.1 fWAR based on a healthier season from Martin and strong contributions from rookie catcher Danny Jansen. The combination of Steamer and Zips projections tab Martin to produce 2.6 fWAR in 448 plate appearances. They also figure Jansen to contribute 0.5 fWAR in 160 PA. Luke Maile isn't factored much into the projections as Fangraphs thinks Jansen will get the bulk of back-up duties. Martin remains an above average catcher and if he remains healthy he should produce solid numbers for the Jays. If Martin is injured. the team has 3 prospects in the upper minors in Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire and Max Pentecost who could replace him. This is a nice luxury for the team to have because it means they won't have to rely on significant playing time from Luke Maile should Martin miss time. Maile will likely start the year as the team's back-up, but he shouldn't see significant playing time and could be replaced mid-season. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see him replaced with a waiver claim when the season starts as teams clear spots on their 40 man rosters.
The Mariners project as the second best catching situation with 2.7 fWAR. Mike Zunino started slowly in 2017 but broke out in a big way after being sent down to AAA and finished the year with 3.6 fWAR. The projection systems used by Fangraphs are taking the under on that 3.6 fWAR and projecting 2.4 fWAR due to a spotty track record. Zunino was so good down the stretch last season that a repeat of his 3.6 fWAR or better wouldn't be out of the question. With that said, much of Zunino's offensive breakout was propped up by a .355 BABIP that is very unlikely to be repeated. Even with regression, the Mariners figure to have a very strong catching situation in 2018. Personally, I would take the over on Zunino producing 2.4 fWAR. Should Zunino miss significant time they have Mike Marjama and David Freitas to fill in. Neither are outstanding options but both should be capable fill-ins should the need arise.
The Twins project for 2.6 fWAR, with Jason Castro making up the bulk of that production. Depth Charts are expecting a career high 576 plate appearances from Castro. His previous best is 512 and his best total in the past 3 years was last season's 407. Second in command is rookie Mitch Garver. Garver has been a good hitter throughout his entire minor league career and could be a breakout candidate if he continues to hit at the majors. There are likely to be growing pains for the rookie and as a result the Twins could receive below average production at the catching position. There is definite upside though. Willians Astudillo is a personal favorite of mine due to his incredibly unique hitting profile. He is the opposite of Adam Dunn and rarely ends a plate appearance with one of the three true outcomes (walk, strikeout, home run). In 2154 minor league plate appearances he has walked only 3.4% of the time, struck out 3.1% and hit 17 home runs. Astudillo hit an excellent .342/.370/..558 at AAA last year, although in only 36 games. He fits best defensively at first base and is unlikely to play a major role in the Twins catching situation.
The Rays are next in line with projected 2.5 fWAR because Steamer is expecting a return to form for Wilson Ramos. Ramos finally lived up to the promise he had shown his entire career when he became an All Star in 2016. Unfortunately, a serious knee injury ended his season early and caused him to miss much of 2017. Ramos' 2017 power, walk and strikeout percentages fell in line with his breakout 2016 so the 2.1 fWAR projection seems reasonable, perhaps even a bit light. If Ramos misses time and the Rays have to rely on Jesus Sucre for a large amount of time then their catching situation could go down the drain quickly. Sucre had his best season at the plate in 2017, but there is little in his MiLB or MLB track record that suggests a repeat is in store. His 85 wrc+ is likely a high mark for him, a number that still lagged behind the average MLB catcher. The Rays don't have an obvious reinforcement in the minors either. They will be relying heavily on a strong year from Wilson Ramos.
The Rangers have the next best catching situation with Robinson Chirinos figuring to get most of the catching duties. Chirinos has always been a good hitting catcher and produced a career best 127 wrc+ in 2017 and the second best fWAR of his career with 2.3. Among catchers with 300+ plate appearances Chirinos ranked 4th among all catchers in wrc+. Steamer is skeptical that he can repeat and projects him for 94 wrc+. Due to increased playing time Fangraphs figures he is good for 2.4 fWAR and for the entire Rangers catching unit to produce 2.4. Juan Centeno figures to see time as the team's back-up, and Brett Nicholas could also factor in. Centeno is a fairly good defensive catcher, but has never shown much with the bat as a professional. Nicholas has some seasons in the minors where he hit well, but with average at best defence he isn't likely to become anything more than a back-up.
Fangraphs projects the Athletics to receive 2.1 fWAR from their catchers. Bruce Maxwell is currently the team's starting catcher, but they are waiting to hear if he will face disciplinary action for allegedly pointing a gun at a food delivery person during the offseason. Fangraphs figures he will see about 416 plate appearances and provide 1.4 fWAR. Maxwell draws a lot of walks and is a strong defender, but his overall game adds up to only about league average production for a catcher. After very good seasons at AAA in 2013-2014 and a strong showing in the majors in 2015, Josh Phegley's bat has taken a big step backwards. The power that made him look like a potential starting catcher has not returned and he is looking more like a decent back-up at this point.
The Angels project to have the worst catching situation among the 2nd wild card contenders and project just 1.6 fWAR. Martin Maldonado is a defensive whiz, but has struggled to hit during his 6 years in the big leagues. Rene Rivera is another solid defensive catcher with an inconsistent bat. With Juan Graterol and Carlos Perez also under team control, the Angels have no shortage of back-up catchers, but lack a clear starter. Maldonado is the starter, mostly due to lack of a better option. The Angels don't have a prospect knocking down the door and may want to look outside the organization if they want to improve their catching situation. Manager Mike Scioscia has been known to disregard offensive production from his catchers, so he may be happy to roll with what they currently have.
Catching is one of the harder positions to project because you can never really predict who will get injured and few teams have a good back-up that can replace their starter. One major injury could decimate a team's production behind the plate. There is also the possibility of a surprise breakout. Every year at least one team seems to have a catcher come out of nowhere to become a strong contributor. Jonathan Lucroy remains on the free agent market and projects to be better than each of these team's starters except the Blue Jays and Mariners so there is still a chance one of these teams could improve their outlook at catcher.
The Blue Jays catching situation looks solid due to their high projection, but it is also a precarious position due to uncertainty over whether Martin can remain healthy all year. Fortunately the Jays have a number of high upside prospects in the upper minors who could fill in should Martin miss time. This is a luxury only the Jays have among the second wild card contenders. The Blue Jays ranked 3rd last in the majors for total catcher production last season. Better health from Martin and more production from the back-ups could result in the Jays having one of the best catching situations in baseball. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
