AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Starting Pitching Part 1
The Daily Jay continues to compare the teams most likely to compete for the AL 2nd wild card with starting pitching today. Click the links to find the write-ups on catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field, center field, and right field. This series uses Fangraphs depth charts projections which rely on Steamer and Zips projection systems. The Blue Jays project as the second wild card team with 87 wins. The Angels, Twins, Rangers, and Mariners also project to be in the wild card conversation. The Rays and Athletics are dark horse candidates.
The Rays project to have the best rotation among the wild card contenders and they will need it to perform up to expectations if they hope to have any chance at being a surprise contender for the wild card. Chris Archer leads a rotation that projects to contribute 14.7 fWAR. Archer is projected to be worth 4.8 fWAR. Archer was worth 4.6 fWAR in 2017 and has averaged 4.3 over the past 3 years. He has underperformed his peripherals the past 2 years, but if his ERA catches up to his xFIP he could be in Cy Young contention at the end of the year, especially if the Rays end up contenders.
Blake Snell had a very good finish in 2017 and projects to be worth 2.7 fWAR. Snell's projected 9.49 k/9, 4.08 bb/9 and 0.97 hr/9 all seem reasonable and there is even upside beyond that. If Snell tightens up his control he could give the Rays another 4 WAR pitcher to go with Archer.
Jake Faria, Nate Eovaldi and Matt Andriese round out the projected starting 5. They all project between 1.5 and 1.8 fWAR. Faria is a flyball pitcher so much of his success will depend on how well he does at limiting walks and keeping runners off base when the inevitable home runs are hit off him. Faria could be another young Rays pitcher capable of outperforming their projection. While Faria and Snell's projections may be underrating them a bit, Eovaldi and Andriese's projections may be a touch optimistic. Andriese will need his stellar walk rate to return. Eovaldi missed all of 2017 with injury, but had very strong peripherals from 2013-2015 before struggling in 2016 and going down with injury. Jose Deleon is on hand as a very good injury replacement and Yonny Chirinos is another solid depth arm. The Rays have a deep pitching staff with an excellent top of the rotation and plenty of upside.
The Blue Jays lack the depth of the Rays system, but project for 13.6 fWAR from their starters. Marcus Stroman leads all Blue Jays pitchers with a 4.3 fWAR projection. Stroman was worth 3.4 fWAR in 2017 and the projections see him striking out a slightly higher number of batters, while walking a few less. The projection is aggressive, but easily attainable based on his skill set. Stroman remaining healthy will be one of the keys to the Jays staying in contention this year. A few missed starts wouldn't destroy the team's chances, but missing the entire season would be a big blow.
JA Happ is the team's 2nd best projected starter with 2.9 fWAR. This forecast sees him regressing a little bit. He was worth 2.9 last season in just 25 starts and worth 3.2 and 3.4 the previous 2 seasons. Happ had the second best k rate of his career in 2017 with 8.79 k/9. Fangraphs depth charts have him down for 8.01 k/9 in 2018 and that would be a positive outcome considering he has only topped that mark twice in his career.
Marco Estrada is projected for a 1.6 fWAR, down from 2.6 last season. The projections see his home run issue continuing and his strikeout rate dropping. The biggest factor that led to his successful 2015 and 2016 seasons was his ability to generate a low BABIP. As an extreme flyball pitcher it's not out of the ordinary for him to run a low BABIP, but even by flyball pitcher standards his 2015-2016 numbers were unusually low. The projections see him with a .289 BABIP in 2018, but if he can have something closer to his career rate of .263 he should be able to have a fairly productive season and outperform his projected fWAR.
Aaron Sanchez's 1.9 fWAR projection stands out. Depth charts only has him down for 130 innings, but they also see him being less productive while on the mound. Sanchez really struggled in 2017 and those numbers really drag his projection down. If we are to chalk up his struggles to dealing with a blister issue and if those issues are behind him it's easy to expect that Sanchez should outperform his projection. Sanchez has never had very good k/bb numbers and instead has relied on weak contact to limit runs. Projections are not very kind to those types of pitchers because it is rare for a pitcher to sustain success if they're walking a lot of batters and not striking many out. If Sanchez is going to be a top of the rotation arm he will need to get his groundball numbers back to his previous elite levels instead of the 47.5% he produced last year. He will also have to show that he is capable of limiting walks like he did in 2016. If the blister issue in behind him, Sanchez should be able to beat his projections and if he and Stroman are healthy the Jays will have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball.
Jaime Garcia is a very good 5th starter and in projected for 1.5 fWAR. He has topped that mark 2 of the past 3 seasons and the year that he failed to top it he had 1.2 fWAR. The projections see him allowing more home runs than last season and that may actually be underrating his abilities as a groundball pitcher. The 1.26 hr/9 projection is likely due to the 1.36 he had in 2016. However, that year he had an unusually high 20.2% hr/fb. If that number is closer to his career rate of 12% he should easily outperform his projection, so long as he can remain healthy.
Joe Biagini is likely the team's 6th starter and should begin the season in AAA. He struggled as a starter last year, but was thrown into the job without proper preparation. His peripheral numbers as a starter were much better than his ERA would suggest and that is reflected in his projections. Fangraphs depth charts have him producing 1.1 fWAR in 85 innings as a starter. There is a good chance he will see that much playing time in the rotation and if he can produce at that level it would be a major win for the team. The strikeout, walk and home run numbers expected of him are easily within reach. The Jays lack major league ready rotation depth and they will need Biagini stretched out and properly prepared, because it's only a matter of time before he will be called upon.
Beyond Biagini on the depth chart are Ryan Borucki, Taylor Guerrieri and Thomas Pannone. That trio has combined for just 3 starts at AAA so it's easy to see why the team is stretching Biagini out to be a starter. There are still some major league quality depth pieces available on the free agent market and hopefully the Blue Jays will be able to bring one aboard. The team has a lot of firepower in their rotation, but they are vulnerable to poor performance if/when injuries strike.
The Angels feature the next best rotation with a projected 11.7 fWAR. Shohei Ohtani was the big addition for the Angels this offseason and he leads the team's starters with a projected 3.1 fWAR in 148 innings. Recent Japanese pitchers who have made the transition to the Majors have done so successfully so it is reasonable to expect this project to have merit. Ohtani has looked very good in spring training and there is a good possibility that he could outperform this projection.
Garrett Richards has struggled to stay on the mound, but he is a top-of-the-rotation starter when healthy. Fangraphs has him down for 136 innings and a 2.3 fWAR. If he is able to pitch a full season's worth of starts he should be able to provide the Angels with 3+ fWAR.
Tyler Skaggs is another talented pitcher in the Angels system that struggles to remain healthy. Fangraphs has him down for a career high 152 innings and a 2.1 fWAR. It is difficult to predict whether a player will remain healthy, but if Skaggs makes the 26 starts he is projected for it's reasonable to think he can be the 4.10 ERA pitcher he is projected to be. If all 3 of these Angels pitchers can stay healthy, they will have a very solid 1-2-3 punch.
Andrew Heaney and Matt Shoemaker are two more injury prone pitchers, but they lack the upside of the other 3 Angels starters. Heaney has strong minor league numbers and was good in 18 starts in 2015, but he was lit up in 5 starts last year and has yet to establish himself in the majors. Shoemaker had excellent k/bb rates from 2014 to 2016 and was looking like a very good middle of the rotation pitcher before injuries derailed his 2017 season. His walk rate jumped and he gave up a career high hr/9. He is homer prone so he will need to maintain a strong k/bb if he hopes to keep his ERA down.
JC Ramirez is a converted reliever who had a fine season in the Angels rotation last year. His 4.15 ERA was not supported by FIP or xFIP and the projections see him regressing to a 4.63 ERA. Parker Bridwell and Nick Tropeano had ERAs of 3.64 and 3.56 but the underlying numbers suggest those numbers will be tough to repeat. The Angels lack quality depth for their rotation and they are relying heavily on 5 pitchers who have a long list of injuries. Their rotation features a lot of upside, but it is also a ticking time bomb that could blow up in their face and ruin any chance of the wild card.
As you can see, the Blue Jays rotation compares favorably to those of the other wild card contenders. They feature the second highest projection, and the Rays are a long shot contender to begin with. The Angels project well, but there are way more question marks surrounding the health of their starting five. They do however have more MLB ready pitching talent, even if it doesn't have the same upside as the Jays pitchers. Tomorrow I will go over the remaining wild card contenders and see what kind of starting pitching depth they have.
