AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Right Field
- Mar 3, 2018
- 7 min read
The Daily Jay continues to look at the AL 2nd wild card contenders position-by-position. Click the links to read the write-ups for catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field. We continue the series with a look at the right field situations of the Blue Jays, Angels, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics and Rays.
The Angels have had one of baseball's most underrated right fielders for the past 4 seasons. Cole Calhoun doesn't have flashy skills, but he does everything well and has produced 13.5 fWAR over the past 4 years. Calhoun had a down 2017 due to his power dropping off and a career low .284 BABIP. Zips and Steamer projections see his power and BABIP rebounding and predict him to put up 2.5 fWAR in 2018. Behind Calhoun are Chris Young and Jabari Blash. If Blash is forced into regular playing time due to an injury to Calhoun he could be a breakout performer. He has monster power and draws a lot of walks so he could produce a very good wrc+. The problem so far in his professional career is that he fails to make enough contact to fully unleash his power potential. Chris Davis has managed to make a 30%+ k rate work and Blash could be the next high strikeout masher to emerge. Chris Young is best suited as a fourth outfielder, but the Angels may elect to give him a starting role if Calhoun goes down due to his experience and less downside compared to Blash. Rymer Liriano is a non-roster invite to spring training and he could also factor into the outfield situation at some point this year.
Mitch Haniger had a very fine rookie season for the Mariners last year and he will be looking to build off it in 2018. He was worth 2.5 fWAR in just 96 games last season. The projections are bearish on Haniger and project him for just 2.1 fWAR in 145 games. The projection systems do not see a repeat of his .338 BABIP and put him down for a closer to average .296. They also do not see a repeat of his power and forecast an ISO drop from .209 to .186. The projections feel reasonable, but the power output may be a bit low. Haniger broke out in 2016 and the projections may not be giving as much credit to his power as he deserves. If Haniger misses time the Maniers will likely turn to Guillermo Heredia. The Mariners likely 4th outfielder makes a good amount of contact, but offers little else offensively. He is a fine fielder and should be able to keep his head above water if given a shot at starting regularly, but his upside is limited.
The Blue Jays had one of the worst right field situations in baseball last year, after years of having one of the best. Jose Bautista is gone and in his place is the newly acquired Randall Grichuk. Grichuk has loads of power and could hit 30 home runs in full time duty. He doesn't walk a lot and is very strikeout prone, so his offensive production will rest solely on how many home runs he can hit. Grichuk is also an above average defender. Grichuk projects to produce 1.7 fWAR in right field and the team is expected to get 2.0 fWAR at the position due to added contributions from Curtis Granderson and Teoscar Hernandez. Grichuk's batting line projection is very similar to what he produced in 2017 when he put up his career worst numbers. Grichuk has shown that he is capable of more at the plate and could be a 3.0+ fWAR player if he were to find a way to cut down on his swinging strikes. He has average 3.16 fWAR per 600 plate appearances so far in his career, so the potential is definitely there. Granderson can fill in when needed, but is best used against right handed pitching only. Teoscar Hernandez had a big September last year, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game. He is best used in AAA to refine his hitting approach.
The Twins have had high hopes for Max Kepler for a while now, but he has yet to put together the season they have expected from him. During his first two seasons in the majors he has been worth 1.0 and 1.2 fWAR. The projections see him being worth 1.7 in 2018. Kepler has a pull heavy approach and doesn't hit many line drives and as a result his career BABIP is just .269. The projections see that number rising to .293 in 2018 accounting for most of the 0.5 rise in fWAR. Kepler can hold his own, but is likely nothing more than your average right fielder. Robbie Grossman gets on base, but does little else well. He is a very poor fielder and is best suited as a DH. The Twins lack outfield depth, so if Kepler can't play they may be forced to deal with Grossman's glove in right. The team projects to receive a total of 1.9 fWAR at the position.
The Rangers project for the same 1.9 fWAR as the Twins. Nomar Mazara is the team's starting right fielder and he projects to give them 1.8 fWAR. Surprisingly, Mazara has been worth only 1.6 fWAR in his career across 1184 plate appearances. He had a poor season defensively last year and produced only 92 wrc+ at the plate. It all added up to a disappointing 0.4 fWAR. The projections remain bullish despite his dreadful showing in 2017. They see an increase in power that will add 15 points to his wrc+. If Mazara's bat fails to produce an above average slash line it will be hard for him to be anything more than a 1 fWAR right fielder. Still, Mazara is only 22 and has a top prospect pedigree so it wouldn't be surprising to see him break out in a big way and become the most productive right fielder in this wild card group. There is a very wide variance in what we could see from the youngster. Shin-Soo Choo is best used as a DH at this point but can fill in in a pinch. Carlos Tocci and Drew Robinson are also on hand in case of injury, but neither has major upside and are more organizational depth at this point.
The Athletics went out and traded for Stephen Piscotty this offseason. Piscotty is projected to give the team 1.7 fWAR in right field, the same as the team's total projection at the position. Piscotty's first full season in 2016 was a major success and he was worth 2.8 fWAR. 2017 was another story and he was worth only 0.2 fWAR. On the bright side, his walk rate jump to a very nice 13.0%and his strikeout rate remained mostly the same at 21.7%. It was his power that nosedived. He dealt with one injury after another in 2017 and if he is healthy there's no reason to think his power can't return. If his power comes back to the .180+ ISO range and he maintains that high walk rate then Piscotty could put up a 3.0 fWAR season and be a steal for the A's. Fangraphs has Chad Pinder down to receive 105 plate appearances in right field for the A's but to perform at replacement level. The projections do not buy his power breakout in 2017 and he offers little else of value if the power isn't there. If Piscotty doesn't return to form the A's will be hard pressed to find production in right field and could find themselves sifting through the likes of Jake Smolinski, Brandon Moss and Mark Canha in hopes of finding lightning in a bottle.
The Rays signed Carlos Gomez as a free agent and he projects to give the team 1.3 of their projected 1.5 fWAR in right field. Once one of the game's best center fielders, Gomez is better suited in a corner now. He had a strong 2017 that was worth 2.3 fWAR. Most of that bounce back is thanks to his power returning. He had a .207 ISO after being at .153 and .154 the prior two seasons. Strikeouts are becoming a major issue for him and if his power numbers don't continue to be well above average then he is unlikely to provide much value at the plate. He can still run and field well so even without a strong season at the plate he should be a positive contributor for the Rays. His projected .239/.311/.406 batting line feels right in line with what to expect. Behind Gomez is Jake Bauers. The youngster can hit for average, but may be better suited at first base defensively. Denard Span could also see time in right. If the Rays are going to contend they will need a few of their position prospects to step up and play a significant role. One possible player is Justin Williams. Williams has some raw power in his bat, but nothing spectacular. A lack of walks will likely keep him from being a significant contributor in the majors, but he did have a career high 9.0% walk rate at AA last year so there could still be hope there.
Very little separates these teams in right field. The Rangers probably have the most upside at the position with Mazara, but they could also just as easily put up the least production at the position if he has another year like 2017. If the Mariners hope to contend they will need a good season from Haniger. Grichuk has yet to play a full season start-to-finish as a starter and could end up the most valuable right fielder in this group at the end of the year. If he goes down with an injury the team will likely turn to Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez will need to prove that last September was no fluke. The Jays have some depth at the position and are probably the deepest in right field out of all these teams. As we've seen throughout this series, the Jays have multiple major league quality options at every position.
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