AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Left Field
I have set about comparing the teams most likely competing for the AL 2nd Wild Card position-by-position using Fangraphs Depth Charts projections. So far I have covered catcher, first base, second base, shortstop and third base. Today I will take a look at the projections in Left Field for the Blue Jays, Angels, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics and Rays.
The Angels brought Justin Upton back to solidify their left field position. The 11-year veteran is still only 30 years old and coming off the second best season of his career. The power hitting right hander was worth 5.0 fWAR in 2017 after a down year in 2016 when he was worth 1.3 fWAR. Depth Charts see him being worth 2.5 fWAR across 630 plate appearances. Upton has been a bit on an iron-man, having reached 620 or more plate appearances each of the past 7 seasons. I could see Upton topping his projection, mostly due to the fact that it has him down for a .305 BABIP when his career BABIP is .327. Only once in his career has he had a BABIP lower than .305 across a full season of at bats. The strikeout, walk, power and defence projections all seem reasonable. Regardless of what he does with BABIP, he should be an above average contributor in left. Behind Upton on the depth chart are Chris Young and Jabari Blash. Young is a very capable back-up who provides some pop and passable defence. Blash has monster power, but strikeout issues will likely keep him from producing at the game's highest level. He is already 28 years old, but if he can get the strikeouts below 30% there's a good chance he could be a legitimate threat at the plate. The Angels have a great starting situation in left field and a steady back-up as well as a lottery ticket with powerful upside.
The Rangers will be counting on Willie Calhoun in left and Fangraphs projects him to contribute 1.9 fWAR. The team, as a whole, is projected to get 2.0 fWAR in left. Calhoun is a converted second baseman who got his first taste of left field last season. Calhoun features a rare hitting profile as a power hitter who rarely strikes out. Calhoun's 11.4% k rate ranked 10th in the Pacific Coast League last year. Of the 9 hitters ahead of him, the highest ISO was .150. Calhoun's ISO was .272. The projections see him putting up a 110 wrc+ as a rookie in 2018. Behind Calhoun is Carlos Tocci, and Drew Robinson. Center fielder Delino Deshields and right fielder Nomar Mazara are also projected to see some time in left. Tocci is a solid fielding contact hitter with no power. Robinson is essentially the exact opposite. If Calhoun misses time or struggles, there is a possibility that neither sees time in left and the Rangers instead opt to move Shin-Soo Choo back into the outfield from DH. The Rangers brought Destin Hood into the organization and he too could factor in to the outfield mix. The Rangers have a good group of starting outfielders and plenty of not great, but decent options in case anybody misses time.
The Twins got a strong season out of Eddie Rosario last year and the young slugger was worth 2.5 fWAR. The projections see him producing 1.9 fWAR in 2018. Rosario's strikeouts dropped to 18.0% in 2017 after being at 25.7% the year before. The projections are skeptical that he can repeat his low k total and have him down for 20.4%. Rosario doesn't walk often, so he will have to rely on keeping his strikeouts down while maintaining solid power numbers. The 1.9 fWAR feels like a fair compromise based on his potential risks and upside. There is a wide variance in possibilities for Rosario in 2018. Robbie Grossman could see some time in left field. He is a very poor fielder, but gets on base at a very good clip. Zack Granite may make the team as the 4th outfielder, a role he is perfectly suited for. He has a lot of speed, can play all 3 outfield positions well and he rarely strikes out. If pressed into starting duty he should be able to at least hold his own and produce a positive fWAR. Lamonte Wade could also play himself into the playing time conversation. He walks a lot and doesn't strike out very often. He doesn't have a lot of upside, but neither do most of the outfield prospects the Twins currently feature in the upper minors.
The Blue Jays rank 4th in the left field projections among 2nd wild card contenders. The team is likely to start with a platoon of Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce. Both veterans hit their platoon very well and Granderson will be able to substitute for Pearce defensively late in games. The team projects to receive 1.6 fWAR from the platoon, and an extra 0.1 fWAR from Grichuk in limited left field duty. Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith Jr are on hand in case one or both of the veterans is injured or fails to produce. Hernandez has produced reverse splits in his minor league career, so despite being right handed, he probably isn't a better option than Pearce to face lefties. Hernandez has a major strikeout issue that needs to be addressed if he hopes to be an above average bat in the majors for more than a month at a time. One of Alford's most valuable assets is his defence so he would be less valuable in left than if he were playing center. Still, he draws a lot of walks and could be an average overall player in left until a spot opens up for him in center. Dwight Smith Jr has quietly climbed the minor league ranks with unspectacular tools, but good results. He may amount to nothing more than a 4th outfielder, but there is some chance he could be a satisfactory starting left fielder. The upside for the Jays in left field in 2018 is rather low, but they should be able to remain competent no matter who they trot out there.
It's a drop of almost a full fWAR from the Blue Jays to the A's. Led by Matt Joyce, the A's project to receive just0.8 fWAR in left field. Joyce had an excellent 2017 worth 2.4 fWAR in a career high 544 plate appearances. Fangraphs doesn't see Joyce repeating that much playing time and has him down for just 350 plate appearances. The majority of the remaining playing time in left is expected to go to Chad Pinder. Pinder had a strong rookie season and hit for a lot of power that the projection systems just don't see him repeating. If Pinder cuts down the strikeouts while maintaining some of the power there's a chance he could be a decent platoon with Matt Joyce. Mark Canha has been a major disappointment the past 2 seasons, but he remains on hand as a possibility in left. He had a strong year in AAA in 2017. Dustin Fowler is currently looking like the team's starting center fielder, but he could also factor into the left field mix if Boog Powell proves capable of starting in center. The A's have a lot of players they can move around the outfield, but not a lot of high upside players who could make a real impact.
The Rays project for just 0.7 fWAR in left field. Mallex Smith projects to receive the most playing time, with Denard Span and Jake Bauers also getting a not insignificant amount of time in left. Smith has loads of speed and is an exciting player to watch, but the overall package is that of a below average left fielder. Span is now 34 years old and no longer the speedster he used to be. He is a poor fielder, but still has a league average bat. Bauers is primarily a first baseman and if he sees time in left it will be because they are looking to get him plate appearances in the majors. Daniel Robertson, Joe McCarthy, Micah Johnson, Johnny Field and Justin Williams could also see time in left. As is the common theme for the Rays in this series of articles, they have a lot of options, but no clear favorite. The best case scenario for them would be if Justin Williams forces his way into the role and runs with it.
The Mariners have one of the worst left field situations in baseball and project to receive just 0.6 fWAR. Ben Gamel is at the top of the depth chart. Gamel got off to a hot start last year, but faded as the season went on. Even with a .340 BABIP he was only able to muster a 99 wrc+. The projections see the BABIP coming down to .313 and bringing his wrc+ down with it to 87. As a sub-par defender and with little speed on the bases Gamel's value depends heavily on his bat. He doesn't walk a lot and his strikeouts are around average and his power is below average. The outlook isn't good. Guillermo Heredia is next on the depth chart, but his outlook isn't all that much brighter. The Mariners don't have any young players knocking on the door.
The Blue Jays left field situation is fairly average. The upside is limited due to the fact that they are relying so heavily on a couple of ageing players. They have some youngsters who could make an impact, but for one reason or another those youngsters are unlikely to be extremely valuable in left. The teams they are in most direct competition for the wild card with have much more upside at the position and if the Jays are going to separate themselves from them then they will probably have to do it elsewhere on the diamond.
