AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Third Base
Today we'll look at the third base situations of the teams most likely to be in the AL second's wild card hunt and how the Toronto Blue Jays Stack up using Fangraphs Depth Charts projections. The Daily Jay has already covered catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop
Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays have the best third base situation among the second wild card contenders. Not only that, they have the best third base situation in all of baseball. They are projected to receive 6.4 fWAR at the hot corner. Josh Donaldson is expected to produce 6.2 fWAR with Yangerivs Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and interestingly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr each chipping in 0.1 fWAR. Donaldson's projection seems fair, with a slight drop in strikeouts and walks. The Bringer of Rain missed 49 games last season, but was healthy the previous 4. Depth Charts has him down for 644 plate appearances in 2018. The position is deep and Donaldson provides elite upside. Should Donaldson go down with injury the Jays are well covered.
The Mariners are projected to get 3.9 fWAR at third base due to an expected 3.8 from the underrated Kyle Seager. Seager has been worth at least 3.5 fWAR each of the past 6 seasons, with a high of 5.5 fWAR in 2016. 2017 was Seager's worst full season at the plate and the projections see him bouncing back with a 118 wrc+. Since much of Seager's down 2017 at the plate was due to a low BABIP it's reasonable to expect a bounceback. Behind Seager are Taylor Motter, Andrew Romine and Ryon Healy. None of them are an ideal replacement for various reasons. Motter has yet to show he can hit in the majors and doesn't have the glove to make up for a weak bat. Romine is more of a utility infielder type of player and Healy is not a good defender at third base. There isn't a third base prospect knocking on the door either. The Mariners third base production rests on Seager.
The Rangers come in third here with 3.8 fWAR due to the ageless wonder Adrian Beltre being projected for 3.4 fWAR. Beltre missed nearly half of 2017, but was still able to produce 3.1 fWAR. The future hall of famer still has an elite strikeout rate and above average power. He even produced a career high walk rate last season. If Beltre plays the majority of the season he should be able to match or surpass his projected fWAR. If Beltre has more injury trouble in 2018 the Rangers have Jurickson Profar on hand. Profar is out of options so he has to make the team out of spring training or be put through waivers where he is likely to be picked up by another team. Profar is a former top prospect so I expect the Rangers to give him every chance to earn a spot this spring. Joey Gallo is currently tabbed as the team's first baseman, but he has experience at third base and could fill in if they need him to.
The Angels brought in Zack Cozart to play third. He is an excellent defender at shortstop and had a breakout year with the bat in 2017. Fangraphs tabs him for 3.2 fWAR and the Angels crew as a whole at 3.6 fWAR. Whether Cozart can continue to hit as well as he did last year remains to be seen. He has always had a good strikeout rate, but he really improved his walks and power numbers. Before producing a 141 wrc+, Cozart had a career wrc+ of 80. His shift into a powerful force at the plate came out of nowhere. The projections at Fangraphs expect the bat to regress to a 102 wrc+. He should still provide excellent defence and be a valuable player whether his bat produces or not. Behind him on the depth chart is Luis Valbuena. Valbuena is a below average fielder at third. He has good power and takes a lot of walks, but a high number of infield flies and flyballs in general keep his batting average low. If Cozart goes down with an injury or has to shift to shortstop due to an Andrelton Simmons injury then Valbuena should be an adequate fill-in. Caleb Cowart and Jefry Marte are also in the organization as depth. Marte is the worse fielder of the two, but he also has more upside with the bat.
The Twins come in just behind the Angels with 3.5 fWAR. Miguel Sano figures to provide the bulk of their value at third base with 3.2 fWAR. There remains some uncertainty around Sano as we wait to hear whether he will face disciplinary action for an alleged sexual assault. Sano is one of the premier power hitters in the game. He dealt with injuries at the end of 2017 and had surgery to fix a leg issue. If he is healed he should provide a solid performance for the Twins. He is projected for a 120 wrc+. If he can manage to cut down on his career strikeout rate of 35.8% he would take a huge step forward and become a truly elite hitter. Behind Sano on the depth chart is Eduardo Escobar. Escobar is unspectacular, but he has quietly put up decent seasons in 3 of the past 4 years. Utilityman Ehire Adrianza could also see some time at third for the Twins. TJ White had a good season in AA last year and could work his way into the mix if a spot opens up and he proves that last year's power spike is for real.
The Athletics have Matt Chapman at third base and project to receive 3.2 fWAR from him. The Athletics as a team project to receive 3.4 at the hot corner. Strikeout issues limit Chapman's upside with the bat, but he is an elite defender and will provide value with his glove no matter what his bat does. If he can cut his strikeouts down from 28.2% he could be a force with the bat as well. Chapman is one of the most exciting sophomore's in baseball. If Chapman is injured or suffers from a sophomore slump the A's have another power hitting youngster in Renato Nunez. Nunez doesn't have the defensive prowess that Chapman does, so if he is going to be valuable he will need to do it with the bat.
The Rays experimental infield continues at third base. Fangraphs has Matt Duffy receiving the lions share of at bats at third. Ryan Schimpf, Daniel Robertson, and Christian Arroyo also figure to see a decent amount of time at third. The group is projected to produce 1.4 fWAR. They are a funny team to try and project because they have some good players on the roster and a lot of question marks. They have multiple options at every position and for that reason they could surprise a lot of people if a few players take a step forward and outperform their projections. This team will be interesting to follow if only to see how their playing time situation shakes out and whether a team with a couple stars and a bunch of not great , but not bad players can compete.
Jays fans should feel confident with their third base situation. Donaldson is a weapon that no other team fighting for the wild card has. The Blue Jays also feature the best back-up with Yangervis Solarte. If the Jays get below average production at third base this year it would be a surprise. If Donaldson misses a lot of time the Jays will probably be outperformed by most of these teams, but at the very least they shouldn't have a black hole at the position.
