Taking A Look At The Spring Training Stats That Actually Matter...A Little - Pitchers Edition
Yesterday I took a look at some of the Blue Jays hitters' spring training stats and whether there were signs of a change in their skillset that could carry over into the regular season. Today I'll take a look at some of the team's pitchers. I want to reiterate that spring training stats are to be taken with a grain of salt, however, there is some research that suggests changes in strikeout and walk rates could point to potential skill changes. I generally don't really like to look at spring numbers, but it's a fun little peek to see if there are any signs of improvement or warning signs.
Deck McGuire has had an excellent spring training and has not given up a single earned run. His strikeout rate has been an excellent 11.0 K/9. He has also limited walks to 0.8 BB/9. Improved strikeout and walk numbers last season led to his best season yet as a pro and even earned him his first major league call-up. It's a positive sign that he is continuing to strike batters out in spring, while significantly lowering his walks. He still needs to prove that he can repeat what he did in AA last year, but if he goes down to AAA and shows similar strikeout and walk totals we could be seeing Deck as part of the Blue Jays rotation should a spot open up.
John Axford's biggest flaw during his career has been the high amount of walks he gives up. In 8 innings this spring he has allowed just 2 free passes. It's vital that he reduces his number of walks, because his walk rates in recent seasons simply won't cut it.
Aaron Sanchez has some of the filthiest stuff in baseball. That's why it is very encouraging that he has allowed just 2 walks through 17.2 spring innings. If Sanchez can run a well below average walk rate he should be in contention for the Cy Young Award at the end of the season. He keeps the ball on the ground, so he shouldn't give up many home runs, and if he's limiting walks there just aren't many ways opposing teams can generate offence against him. Sanchez's spring performance is very encouraging.
Al Alburquerque is unlikely to have earned a spot on the opening day roster, but he has shown a skillset that should make him one of the first pitcher's called upon when an opportunity arises. His 12/1 K/BB over 8 innings is fantastic. He has never shown this type of control in his career so it's worth watching his walk rate in AAA. If he can demonstrate a new ability to throw consistent strikes I really like him as a key piece of the Blue Jays bullpen.
Joe Biagini has had a bloated 6.50 ERA in 18.0 spring innings while being stretched out as a starter. After last season's struggles in the rotation, his spring performance probably isn't inspiring much faith among the fanbase. However, his 9.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 suggest that he has the underlying skills to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Biagini generates too many groundballs for his 2.5 HR/9 to continue over the long term.
Danny Barnes has been crushed in spring training, giving up 4.3 HR/9 and a 7.56 ERA. As a flyball pitcher Barnes is susceptible to the long ball. In order for him to succeed he will need to run a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate. He has an excellent minor league track record in that regard, and has been adequate during his time in the majors. This spring he has shown a positive 14.0 K/9. I would prefer to see a lower walk rate than 3.2 BB/9, however.
Aaron Loup has been excellent this spring after a resurgent 2017 season. His 14.1 K/9 suggests he should have another season as an above average strikeout pitcher. Loup's walks spiked in 2017 so it's a positive sign to see him at 2.3 BB/9 this spring.
Ryan Tepera's spring numbers are a bit concerning. He has issued 4.5 BB/9 in his 8 innings. Tepera's walk numbers have been on the edge between acceptable and too high for most of his major league career. If his walk numbers were to spike, he likely would have trouble repeating as one of the Blue Jays' strongest relievers.
Again, spring training stats don't hold a lot of value due to the small sample sizes and wide variance in talent levels, but strikeout and walk rates tend to normalize much quicker than other numbers. Blue Jays pitchers have had mostly promising numbers this spring, with Sanchez and McGuire showing that there may be meaningful changes in their skillset. Since much of the Blue Jays' 2018 success relies on the quality of their pitching, the team's pitchers' spring results are definitely encouraging.
