Taking A Look At The Spring Training Stats That Actually Matter...A Little - Hitters Edition
It should be common knowledge by now that spring training stats are to be taken with a grain of salt. The sample sizes are small and the quality of competition varies. However, while it may not be wise to look at a player's overall batting line, there are some stats that have shown themselves somewhat valuable in assessing whether a certain player made noticeable improvements. Strikeout and walk rates tend to normalize much quicker than other statistics, and if a player is showing improvement in one of those areas during spring training, there is an increased chance that those changes could carry over into the regular season. To a lesser extent the same can also be said for Isolated Slugging.
Kevin Pillar had an impressive 1.116 OPS this spring, but his strikeout and walk numbers did not improve significantly compared to past seasons. He walked just 4.3% of the time, so anybody hoping for improved plate discipline will likely be disappointed. I wrote earlier in the offseason about how improved plate discipline could potentially do wonders for Pillar. His spring results are not promising. Pillar did have an impressive 6.5% strikeout rate so even if he doesn't improve his walk rate, further improvement in strikeouts would be a plus.
Luke Maile had a season to forget in 2017 and many are hoping he will have more to offer with the bat in 2018. The early signs are promising. He posted and impressive 14.7 BB% and just 5.9 K%. Luke Maile didn't suddenly turn into Joey Votto, but any improvement on last year's 2.2 BB% will be very welcome. The high contact rate is also a good sign. One area of concern is Maile's low .111 ISO. If he isn't more of a power threat in the regular season it will be difficult for him to maintain a quality walk rate because pitchers will have no problem challenging him.
Justin Smoak's slow start this spring probably had some people concerned he was a one-year-wonder. Smoak's 21.7 K% suggests he should be able to keep the solid strikeout rate that allowed him to break out last season. The OPS may have been low this spring, but that has more to do with a .233 BABIP than any skill degradation.
Teoscar Hernandez has Blue Jays fans very excited after his scorching September numbers carried over into this spring. The 1.030 OPS is great, but the underlying numbers remain troublesome. Strikeouts were an issue for him last season and they remained an issue this spring with 31.4% of his plate appearances ending with him being rung up on strikes. His walk rate is also of concern with only 5.6% of his spring plate appearances resulting in a free pass. History has not been kind to hitters with Hernandez's strikeout to walk ratio. Only one player in baseball history has had a career as an above average hitter while striking out more than 30% and walking less than 9%. Teoscar's power remains intriguing. He had a .320 ISO this spring and if he can continue to be among the game's best power hitters he can succeed with his poor plate discipline. He won't be a superstar with that K/BB ratio, but he can be an above average hitter based on his extreme flyball profile and ability to crush the ball.
Anthony Alford was having an excellent spring before a hamstring injury cut his grapefruit league stint short. The stat worth noting is his 25% strikeout rate. Strikeouts were a concern for Alford early in his professional career, especially in 2016 when he struck out 29.2% of the time. He made major improvements in that area last season and had a very good 15.6% in AA. The 25% rate this spring suggests he may still have work to do on cutting down strikeouts before he's ready to face major league pitching regularly. A few more months in AAA will likely do Alford a lot of good.
Randal Grichuk spent the offseason trying to improve his pitch recognition. The results this spring suggest he still has work to do. His walk rate was 6.1% and his strikeout rate was 25%, neither are significant improvements that would suggest a change in approach.
Devon Travis's 14.9% strikeout rate is encouraging. He was at 19.3% last season. If he can lower last year's strikeout rate he is a good bet to be at least a league average hitter. The less promising stat is his 4.3 BB%. After being at 3.6% last year, it looks like he may be in for another year of below average walks. A return to his rookie level of 7.6% would be very welcome, but at this point it looks like that may be ancient history.
Russell Martin's strikeout numbers this spring are a bit concerning. He went down on strikes 29.7% of his spring plate appearances. His walks were still strong at 10.8%, but if he strikes out near 30% in 2018 it will be difficult to repeat as a league average hitter.
Danny Jansen had just a .105 AVG and .340 OPS, but there are still reasons to be optimistic about his future. He had a very low 9.1 K% and an equal BB%. Jansen has an elite contact rate, he just needs to spend more time in AAA to prove he can do enough damage when making contact.
It's worth repeating that spring training stats don't tell us a whole lot. Strikeouts and walk rates can give us some insight into whether players made significant improvements and based on spring results for Blue Jays hitters, most of them are the same as they always were. Luke Maile's numbers are the ones that stand out the most. Improved K/BB numbers from him would be very good, so let's hope this spring is a sign of things to come. He'll probably still be a poor hitter, but at least there's hope now that he can hit well enough to be a competent back-up. Russell Martin's strikeout rate is worth keeping an eye on. The bar for catcher offence is low, so even if Martin's bat takes a step backwards he can still be an average to above average catcher overall. The other takeaways are that Jays fans shouldn't be overly concerned with Smoak's slow start and to temper expectations regarding Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez's power appears legitimate, but his K/BB issues will limit his ceiling unless he can make improvements.
