AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Second Base
Based on current projections the Astros, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees are a step ahead of the rest of the teams in the AL. Today we will look at the second base situations of the teams most likely to be competing with the Blue Jays for the second wild card: Angels, Rays, Rangers, Twins, Athletics and Mariners. I will be using Fangraph's depth charts which rely on Steamer and Zips projections.
The Twins have the best second base situation among these teams due to the presence of Brian Dozier. Dozier accounts for 3.7 of the team's projected 3.9 fWAR. This is a conservative projection considering Dozier has topped 5 fWAR each of the past 2 seasons. It isn't completely unrealistic though. Steamer sees his strikeout, walk and ISO numbers staying relatively the same as last year, but expect his BABIP to drop from .300 to .281. Given his career .276 BABIP this isn't an unreasonable prediction. Eduardo Escobar backs up Dozier in case of injury and is a solid replacement. He won't produce nearly as much as Dozier but can be counted on a fWAR around 1.5 over a full season's worth of at bats.
The Mariners rank second among second wild card contenders with 3.0 projected fWAR. Robinson Cano continues to produce in his mid-30s and Steamer is expecting 2.9 fWAR from him in 2018. Behind Cano on the depth chart are Taylor Motter and Andrew Romine. Motter has yet to translate his strong minor league numbers into MLB production. He isn't a strong defender so he will have to count on his bat to improve if he hopes to make a mark at the game's highest level. Steamer is projecting a much improved wrc+ of 87. At that level he is still nothing more than a borderline back-up. Romine has a longer and better track record than Motter, but is still unlikely to make any impact if pushed into a starting role due to a Cano injury. Gordon Beckham is in the minors in case they have to go that far down the depth chart. The Mariners production at second base will rely heavily on the health of Cano.
The Angels have had a hole at second base since Howie Kendrick left after the 2014 season. They may have solved that problem by bringing in Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has been one of baseball's most reliable at the keystone over the past decade. Fangraphs projects 2.8 fWAR from Angels second basemen. Kinsler's bat had a down season in 2017 and Steamer is expecting a slight bounceback. Kinsler's defence has been excellent recently and should provide plenty of value again in 2018. Caleb Cowart is on hand in case Kinsler goes down with injury. Cowart's strikeout issues limit his offensive ceiling. Steamer projects a sub .300 OBP with below average power and little defensive value. The Angels have Jose Miguel Fernandez in the minors and he has a very good bat, but questions surround his ability to stick at second base.
The Blue Jays project to receive 2.5 fWAR at second base. The depth charts account for the fact that Travis is injury prone and have him down for only 455 plate appearances. Travis is expected to contribute 1.9 fWAR, while Yangervis Solarte will provide 0.5 fWAR at second base. Aledmys Diaz is projected to provide 0.2 fWAR over 70 plate appearances at second. The Blue Jays have a solid projection at second base and some upside if Travis can stay healthy all year. It's nice to have some depth to protect the team in the case of Travis' injury woes continuing.
The Athletics project to receive 1.8 fWAR at second base, with the majority of that production coming from Jed Lowrie. Lowrie was worth 3.5 fWAR in 2017, but that is coming after a year when he managed a woeful -0.8 fWAR. Lowrie has been quite productive throughout his career, but has had a hard time staying healthy. If he can play a full slate of games I could see the A's getting more production at second base than they are currently projected to receive. If Lowrie can't stay on the field they have Chad Pinder on hand. Pinder showed a lot of power as a rookie last year, but that is something he didn't really show a lot of in the minor leagues. The projection systems are skeptical that he can repeat. His strikeout and walk totals are an issue and he doesn't provide much value with the glove so a lot will rely on him being able to repeat his strong power numbers. Fangraphs also has Franklin Barreto down for 21 plate appearances at second base. The young prospect that the Jays traded as part of the Josh Donaldson trade is ready for an extended look in the majors. If the A's are out of the race early then we may see Lowrie traded and a spot will open up for Barreto to see regular playing time.
The Rangers are projected for 1.8 fWAR and Steamer is projecting a major bounce back from Rougned Odor, but Zips is not as optomistic. Odor was the worst qualified second baseman last year with -1.0 fWAR. He hit a woeful .204/.252/.397 with sub-par defence. The projections expect his BABIP to return to a more normal .283 from the unusually low .224 Odor hit last year. Odor is a flyball hitter who pops up often and has an extreme pull spray chart. A high BABIP is unlikely and if he produces another low BABIP the Rangers may be looking at another sub-replacement performance from their overrated second baseman. Jurickson Profar has seen his stock drop from being the top prospect in baseball due to injuries. He has yet to produce consistently in the majors, but put up very good numbers in AAA last year. Willie Calhoun likely doesn't have the glove to stick at second base, but he is a very good hitter. The Rangers have counted on a poor fielder in Odor, so they may be ok with Calhoun's poor fielding as well.
The Rays have the worst outlook at second among the wild card contenders. Joey Wendle is projected to receive most of the playing time at second. Matt Duffy, Daniel Robertson, Brad Miller, and Nick Solak also figure to see time. That group projects for 1.2 fWAR. As is the case with most of the Rays infield positions they are likely to go with a position-by-committee and see who emerges and takes hold of a position and runs with it. Ryan Schimpf had a breakout season in 2016 but struggled last year. He has a lot of power and draws walks but serious strikeout issues and poor defence limit his upside. Christian Orroyo, acquired in the Longoria trade, may also factor into the Rays second base situation. Micah Johnson may also get a look. Who knows, maybe they'll even bring Akinori Iwamura out of retirement to fill the spot.
Neil Walker and Brandon Phillips remain on the free agent market. Both would be an upgrade for the Rays. Phillips is the more likely player to land in Tampa due to price. None of the other teams are likely to be interested in either player, at least not as their second base solution.
Second base is a strong position for the teams competing for the wild card. The Blue Jays have a couple of solid options to choose from. With Solarte and Diaz around the Jays may be better protected in case of injury than any of the other teams. This is a common theme for this Blue Jays team. They seem determined not to repeat last year's disaster where they often had 3 or 4 sub-replacement players in the lineup at the same time. Since making his debut, Travis has been one of the most productive second baseman in the game by fWAR/600, but injury issues have kept him from his full potential. A healthy year from Travis could be huge for this team's wild card hopes.
