AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: First Base
Today we continue our look at Fangraphs' depth chart projections for each of the team's that are the Blue Jays' biggest rivals for the second wild card: The Angels, Rangers, Twins, and Mariners project as the teams most likely to be in the 2nd wild card hunt, with the A's and Rays as dark horse candidates. Fangraphs uses a mixture of Steamer and Zips projection systems and estimates on expected playing time. Today we will see how the Blue Jays first base situation stacks up. You can find the breakdown of catchers here
The Athletics lead the second wild card contenders with a 2.4 fWAR projection at first base. Matt Olson was worth 2.0 fWAR in just 59 games last year and the Fangraphs projections see him producing 2.4 fWAR in 2018. Olson's 162 wrc+ would have ranked 4th in baseball had he had enough plate appearances to qualify. He isn't likely to repeat his insane power numbers, but he should still be one of the game's best power hitters going forward. According to Baseball Savant, he had the 6th most barrels per plate appearance in 2017 and the 10th highest rate of batted balls hit over 95 MPH. Should Olson miss time the A's will rely on Brandon Moss or Mark Canha. Neither look likely to be above average hitters at this point and both would probably struggle to be more than replacement level players.
The Rangers have the second best first base projection among 2nd wild card contenders with 2.4 fWAR. Joey Gallo produced 2.9 fWAR in his first full season and is expected to put up 2.5 in 2018. The projections on Gallo seem accurate due to his extreme strikeout tendencies limiting how much more productive he could become. Gallo's BABIP was low at .250, but it is not uncommon for extreme flyball hitters to have a low BABIP. If Gallo can reduce his strikeouts he would be even more dangerous at the plate, but his track record suggests he is likely to strike out at a similar pace to what he did in 2017. Behind Gallo on the depth chart is Ryan Rua. Rua has his own strikeout issues except without the prodigious power and is nothing more than a replacement level player. If Gallo were to go down for an extended period of time the Rangers may turn to Ronald Guzman, a solid but unspectacular prospect. If Gallo fails to produce, the Rangers will likely struggle to get value at first base.
The Blue Jays project to have the third best first base situation with 2.3 fWAR. The projections see Justin Smoak maintaining much of the improvements he made in 2017. A slight rise in strikeouts and small drop in power have the projection system expecting a wrc+ drop from 132 to 116. The numbers seem reasonable. Steve Pearce backs up Smoak at first and projects a 108 wrc+. Pearce is a nice piece of insurance in case Smoak fails to repeat his 2017 success or goes down with an injury. Pearce won't light the world on fire, but he is a veteran bat that should provide decent production. Rowdy Tellez remains at AAA and will need to prove himself after a disastrous 2017.
The Twins project to receive 1.7 fWAR from a combination of Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas. After 3 straight seasons of hovering around league average production at the plate, Mauer showed that he still has something left in the tank in 2017. His .384 OBP ranked 5th in the American League and he had his best defensive season since moving to first base full time. Mauer will turn 35 early in the 2018 season and the projections see him dropping 10 points off last year's 116 wrc+. Vargas has yet to spend a full year in the majors and has alternated between solid hitting and below average hitting. He has maintained a high BABIP during his time in the majors and his offensive production depends mostly on how much power he hits for. Steamer sees Vargas likely producing a wrc+ around 101. If Mauer's age catches up to him in 2017 and the Twins have to rely on Vargas they could see themselves struggling to get offensive production at first. There is the possibility that Miguel Sano could move to first, but then they would then need to figure out what to do at third base.
Before trading for CJ Cron, the Rays first base situation was probably to throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and go with whatever sticks. They project to receive 1.0 fWAR from a combination of Cron, Brad Miller, Daniel Robertson and Jake Bauers. Cron has yet to live up to his promise. He has had a few decent seasons at the plate, but took a step back in 2017 when he produced just a 99 wrc+. Fangraphs depth charts sees a repeat of that number in 2018. Miller will need to prove that his 30 HR season in 2016 wasn't a fluke after hitting 9 in 2017. He has only had good power numbers once in his 5 years at the major league level so it doesn't look to promising that he can return to being a 30 HR hitter. Robertson is a middle infield prospect with a middle infielder's bat. If he sees a lot of time at first base it will be due to a lack of better options. Jake Bauers could be the Rays saviour at first base. He isn't a superstar prospect, but he could be good enough. He doesn't strike out very often and takes a good amount of walks, but lacks the power you traditionally see at first base. Joe McCarthy has good minor league numbers but has yet to play at AAA. A strong showing at AAA could earn him a shot in the majors later in 2018. Matt Duffy or Ryan Schimpf could also get a look at first. Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison are still free agents and both played for the Rays last season but since the team appears to be focussed on keeping payroll down they will probably hope to get a breakout performance from Cron.
The Angels project to get only 0.5 fWAR from their first basemen. Luis Valbuena and Albert Pujols are expected to see a fair amount of time at first. Pujols is a shell of his former self and with only one season of an ISO above .200 in the past 5 seasons it's unlikely he's going to be a fearsome hitter anymore. 2017 was a disaster for the future hall of famer and expecting a bounce back at age 38 would be foolish. Valbuena had a nice run at the plate from 2014-2016 but struggled badly in 2017. He hit only .199 with an OBP of .294. However, the power remained, and due to a .233 ISO and he was able to approach league average production with the bat despite the horrible OBP. Chris Carter was brought in as insurance. The 31 year old slugger saw most of his power disappear last season with the Yankees and will be looking to rebound with the Angels. Jeffry Marte could also factor into the Angels first base plans. Overall, the team does not have any sure-fire producer to count on.
The Mariners have the worst first base situation among 2nd wild card contenders and the second worst in all of baseball. They project for a mere 0.2 fWAR. Ryon Healy was brought in to fortify the position, but is an imperfect solution. Healy has some power, although it likely isn't enough to make up for his extremely low walk rate. Healy looked like he might be a solid hitter in 2016 when he produced a 132 wrc+, but much of that was due to an unsustainably high .352 BABIP. He lacks the traits you usually see with high BABIP players and the .319 he put up in 2017 is more likely what we should expect going forward. With the Athletics Healy was worth just 0.2 fWAR in a full season last year, but part of that low total had to do with his extremely poor defence at third base. The Mariners won't need him at the hot corner and he should be more valuable playing at first everyday. If he can drop his strikeout rate closer to what he had in the minors he could end up an above average hitting first baseman and give the Mariners a couple more wins than he currently projects to. If Healy doesn't produce, the Mariners have a pair of intriguing prospects that they could call upon. Mike Ford has a very good minor league track record as a high walk, low strikeout hitter. He actually projects as a better hitter than Healy in 2018 despite never played a game at the major league level. Ford was a rule 5 pick-up which means he will have to spend the entire season on the Mariners 25 man roster or be offered back to the Yankees. He could end up being a sneaky good pick-up. The Mariners also have Dan Vogelbach. Another high walk, low strikeout minor leaguer, Vogelbach has yet to get a significant chance in the majors despite strong minor league numbers. Questions surround him due to his middling power and lack of athleticism. The Mariners have 3 players who project to have essentially league average bats, but each one also contains some upside to be more than that.
As you can see, the Blue Jays are set up pretty well at first base compared to their wild card competition. Even if Smoak returns to what he was pre-2017 he should still be better than what the Angels, Rays, and Mariners are likely to get at the position. Smoak had the best 2017 out of the expected starters and it wouldn't be surprising if he repeated that feat in 2018. Steve Pearce is also the best back-up among this group, so the team is better protected in case of injury than their rivals. If the A's hope to contend they will need a big season from Matt Olson. If he can be a superstar slugger they could surprise a lot of people.
