Making Sense Of The Marcus Stroman Trade
The Yankees reportedly aren't willing to part with Deivi Garcia in a trade, but are open to moving Clint frazier or Miguel Andujar. Would either of those players really make sense for the Blue Jays and be a better fit than the players they received from the Mets? Frazier is limited to the outfield corners and is one of the worst defenders in baseball. The Jays are set in LF with Gurriel and have Grichuk locked up in RF so there really isn't a good fit for Frazier. Andujar is atrocious at third base and if the Jays were willing to play Andujar at third they might as well just stick with Guerrero there. It doesn't make sense for the Jays to trade for either of those position players and if the Yankees said no on Garcia there really wasn't much more to discuss.
Houston and Atlanta have some prospects that would interest the Jays, but do those teams have interest in Stroman? Stroman is an excellent pitcher, but he's not an ace. If Houston or Atlanta are going to trade a top prospect for a pitcher they probably want to do it for an ace. They are both sittingly comfortably in their divisions so there isn't a lot of motivation for them to make upgrades for the regular season. In the playoffs teams move to a 4 man rotation and while Stroman would help both teams in the playoffs, he likely isn't enough of an upgrade to make it worth moving a top prospect. If either of these teams weren't so comfortable in their division they would have more motivation to add a starter, but since any trades they make will be solely for the playoffs it's probably ace or bust for them.
That brings us to the Twins. The Indians are gaining on them and they could use some help, but they are probably better off focussing on the bullpen. The rotation is not spectacular, but it is solid with 5 above average starters. Stroman would no doubt improve the rotation, but more would be gained by adding to the bullpen. After Taylor Rogers the Twins bullpen thins out quickly. A trade headlined by Brusdar Graterol or Jhoan Duran would have been a more exciting return for Stroman, but the upgrade from their current 5 starters likely wasn't worth the cost in the eyes of the Twins front office. Would Jordan Balazovic and Lewis Thorpe be a better return than what the Jays got from the Mets? Perhaps. But if the Twins said no to either of those pitchers then there really isn't a deal to be had. They would probably be better off using one of those pitching prospects to acquire a reliever.
The Cubs are in a similar situation as the Twins. Stroman would improve their rotation, but with a move to a 4 man rotation in the playoffs Stroman would probably not move the needle enough from what they currently have to make the Cubs want to pay a lot. That and the fact that the Cubs don't really have a pair of pitching prospects that could top what the Mets offered.
The Dodgers are a similar story to the Twins and Cubs. They could use Stroman, but don't have an urgency to add an arm.
The Indians have clawed their way back into the playoff hunt and are dealing with some pitching injuries, but if Kluber comes back healthy their pitching is so deep that there's no guarantee Stroman would even make the team's playoff rotation. The Indians have been trying to shed salary and are in no position to give up prospects.
The Brewers have a clear need for a pitcher of Stroman's calibre. They are probably the team that needed Stroman the most. One small problem...they don't have good pitching prospects. Zack Brown and Aaron Ashby are their top pitching prospects and that would be a disappointing return.
The Cardinals could also use Stroman's services but they're even worse off for pitching prospects than the Brewers are.
I felt like the Phillies would have interest in Stroman since they are in the playoff hunt and also looking to contend next season. They brought in Bryce Harper so they also don't mind dealing with big personalities. I thought Adonis Medina plus a couple lottery ticket prospects would make a fair deal. Medina is a higher ranked prospect than either of the two prospects received by the Jays, but a deal of Medina and a couple lower level prospects really wouldn't be dramatically better than what Toronto received. If the Phillies said no on Medina then there's not a lot of paths to make a deal better than what Toronto got.
There were a lot of suitors for Stroman's services, but the problem seems to be that the teams who needed him the most didn't have the pieces that would make a deal appealing to the Jays. The Brewers and Cardinals could really use Stroman, but there is absolutely no way they could offer good enough pitching to make sense as trade partners. The Yankees need a starter but weren't willing to part with the one asset that would make a deal with them palatable.
Teams are more hesitant to give up prospects for a playoff push and in recent seasons we have seen smaller returns than we had grown accustomed to. This seems to be an extension on what we saw during the offseason where teams were reluctant to add to their rosters. A move for a pitcher like Stroman will move the needle for practically every playoff hopeful team, but with the playoffs being a crapshoot teams are apparently hesitant to move cheap young talent for slightly higher World Series odds.
The Mets may have saw an opportunity to capitalize on a suppressed market. If they hang onto Syndergaard the addition of Stroman will give them one of the top 1-2-3 punches in baseball led by Jacob DeGrom. Their window to contend is closing so they probably saw a chance to have a very good rotation for at least one more year in 2020 and with good health could make a return to the playoffs.
The Blue Jays got a risky return, but one that could also pay off for them. Anthony Kay is not an exciting prospect, but he is a borderline top 100 prospect who is very close to being MLB ready. The numbers in AAA are not inspiring, but his AA numbers were phenomenal and scouts like his stuff. Simeon Woods Richardson is the upside play in this trade. At only 18 years old he is a very risky player. An arm injury could keep him from ever making an impact in the majors. That's the risk you take to get someone who could be an impact pitcher in a few years. He is already in A ball and pitching very well. The 2.55 FIP and 2.25 xFIP against much older competition points to his immense upside. Scouts see at least a late inning reliever in him. 6 years of a late inning reliever would be a solid return. If he sticks in the rotation it becomes a great trade.
It would have been nice to see a larger haul for Stroman, however, after looking at all of the interested teams and what they had to offer and their level of desire to add a player of Stroman's skill it becomes clearer why this trade was the best offer they received. It will be interesting to see if any other top starting pitchers get moved and what type of returns they bring. Mike Minor appears to be the closest comparable pitcher to Stroman so his return should be a good gauge of how the market values these players.
