Trading Marcus Stroman Is The Right Move
I've been on the fence about the whole trade vs. extend Stroman situation.
Ultimately it comes down to how he is expected to perform on the mound going forward. He is likely one of the top 30 pitchers in the game and that talent isn't easy to come by so I can see why extending him would be an appealing route.
With one more year of arbitration ahead it means any extension would begin with the 2021 season when Stroman will be 30. He will likely demand at least a 4 year contract, most likely 5 years. This means they would be locking up his age 30 to 33 or 34 seasons. The list of starting pitchers his size pitching well that far into their 30s is not a long one at all. Those concerns could explain the hesitancy by the front office in locking him up. They would probably have to dish out $100 million or more to get him under contract. Stroman is a very talented pitcher, but let's not pretend that locking him up to a long term contract wouldn't be a large risk. We don't even know if the Jays will be contenders during the early years of that extension. They could be wasting his last few remaining prime years on losing seasons and when they do become competitive there's a possibility he will be into his decline phase.
Maximizing assets means trading him is probably the best route to go. They can likely acquire a top prospect for him and 2 other intriguing pieces. These players will also likely be close to major league ready, meaning their timelines will line up well with the Blue Jays' window to win. Yes, Stroman is young enough that part of his peak will line up with the team's window to win, but so will part of what is normally a pitcher's decline years.
The important thing to keep in mind is that the money they aren't giving to a Stroman extension will still be available to spend when the time is right. Instead of locking up Stroman in 2019 for $100 million for the 2021-2025 seasons and hoping he's still worth that money, they can use that money when they have a better idea of where the team's contention windows stands. What if the rebuild hits a few speedbumps and the Jays aren't contenders until 2023? In that scenario they're ready to compete, but they have a declining veteran pitcher on a huge contract. The Jays would have been better off with payroll flexibility at that point so they can go out and get the pitcher they need with the money they're not paying Stroman.
Prospects are seen as a risk because they may not reach their peak, but even if none of the prospects traded for Stroman reach their peaks they can still contribute to the big league club.
As an example, let's say the Jays trade Stroman to the Phillies for Adonis Medina and two mid-level relief prospects. Medina doesn't become the frontline starter he potentially could be, but he becomes a decent late inning reliever and ready to pitch important innings for the Jays 2022 season. Let's say one of the other prospects becomes a mop-up reliever. Nothing special, but still provides some value. Don't forget, they're paying the prospects practically nothing. This is important. The trade didn't work out as hoped, but they are still getting something. However, without a lot of money tied up in Stroman, that allows them to go out and sign a starting pitcher of Stroman's calibre after the 2021 season. The Jays in this scenario now have a solid starting pitcher on par with Stroman PLUS a couple MLB quality relievers making peanuts. The Jays are clearly better off in this situation and that's with the trade being a relative bust.
As much as people want to say prospects are risky, so are pitchers. Tying up a pitcher with a big contract years before the team is ready to compete is just as risky as counting on those prospects to develop as hoped. In the scenario above where the trade could be considered a bust the Jays are still in a better situation than if they had hung onto Stroman. There is nothing stopping the Jays from using the money they could use to extend Stroman to sign a free agent when the timing is right and the team's outlook is clearer.
If the Stroman trade works out as hoped then the Jays have a very good starting pitcher making nothing and money available to spend big on a free agent. In that scenario they're WAY better off than if they had hung onto Stroman. Even a worst case scenario where nobody from the trade becomes anything the Jays end up in a less risky position because they still have the money to spend on a pitcher. Spending $100 million on a pitcher during the offseason before 2022 when you have the previous season to gauge their current talent is a hell of a lot less risky than locking up Stroman in 2019 for that same 2022 season and hoping he's as good as he has been so far.
Really, the only way this situation could work out poorly for the Jays is if Stroman goes on to be very good for his entire contract, the prospects all bust, and whichever free agent they give Stroman's money to also flops. The chances of that free agent flopping are just as high as Stroman flopping. In fact, the chances are lower because the contract will be handed out the year before it begins, not 2 years before.
There are just so many more paths to things working out better in the Jays' favor if they trade him than if they keep him.
I used to be on the fence, but the more thought I've given it the more it makes sense to deal him. Take a chance on the prospects and use the money when the timing to spend aligns better with their contention window.
