Toronto Blue Jays Should Target Free Agent Starting Pitching They Can Potentially Flip At The Deadli
The Toronto Blue Jays likely won't be too active searching for position players this offseason and, in fact, will likely be looking to move some of their position player depth in order to bolster a pitching staff that could use some upgrades. The team also has some payroll space to work with and could look to the free agent market to add a few arms. They have plenty of young arms for their rotation, but a few of them could benefit from more time in the minors and the front office may want to bring in some veteran placeholders to keep those rotation spots warm until the kids are ready. Despite rumors of the Blue Jays checking in on names like Dallas Kuechel and J.A. Happ, it's probably unlikely that they will be shopping at the top of the market and it is more probable that they will be looking at mid-tier free agents instead.
Gio Gonzalez is an underappreciated lefty who never seems to get injured. The 33 year old southpaw reeled off 8 consecutive 3+ fWAR seasons before regressing to a still solid 2.0 last season. He will probably be looking for a multi-year deal so he may not be ideal if they want someone who won't be blocking any of the young starters. He should still have something left in the tank and a good veteran presence for the youngsters. If he could offer some tips on how to stay healthy that would be a bonus.
Tyson Ross looked like an emerging ace in 2015 when injuries derailed his career. He missed almost all of 2016 and the majority of 2017, but managed to make 22 starts for the Padres before being traded to the St. Louis at the deadline and moving to the Cardinals bullpen. Most importantly he managed to avoid the disabled list. The top-of-the-rotation stuff is no longer there, but he could provide quality innings on an affordable contract with the possibility of being flipped at the deadline.
Derek Holland had a promising start to his career, but from 2014 to 2017 he was either injured or ineffective. 2018 was a different story and he managed to produce a 3.57 ERA across 171.1 innings. A big jump in his swinging strike rate led to a career high 23.3% strikeout rate. His market probably won't be very robust due to his 4 years of struggles so he could be a cheap option to give the Blue Jays innings in 2019.
Matt Harvey still has good velocity and saw his ability to generate swinging strikes start to return as the season went on. His ability to limits walks also returned after a disastrous 2017. His attitude issues were well reported in New York and his work ethic came into question so he may not be the ideal pitcher to have around young pitchers. However, he has a lot of upside and could be worth the gamble if he comes cheap.
Matt Shoemaker can't stay healthy, but when he is on the mound he shows a lot of potential. His 4.94 ERA in 7 starts last year may not look impressive at first glance, but the underlying numbers paint a more promising picture. He produced a 3.35 FIP due to high strikeout numbers and a below average walk rate. His 13% swinging strike rate was well above league average. He is a definite injury risk, but would provide a massive amount of surplus value should he be able to make it through a season healthy.
Shelby Miller is still just 28 years old and won't turn 29 until October. His last 3 seasons have been a nightmare. In the rare moments he was able to be on a mound in 2018 he still showed off plus velocity. The former top prospect should come cheap and a team like the Blue Jays with nothing to lose may want to take a chance on him.
With the Blue Jays being long shots to make the playoffs they can afford to gamble on pitchers who have their share of warts, but also provide upside. If any of these pitchers can perform well they can be moved for assets that will be able to help when the team is ready to compete again. Toronto should be an enticing destination for pitchers looking to rebuild their value since they will be able to offer a rotation spot out of spring training.
