Are Pitchers Today Babied Too Much?
A common thing you'll hear from older baseball fans is "Back in my day pitchers finished what they started. Seaver, Ryan, and Gibson would pitch 300 innings a year and they wouldn't whine about sore arms. None of this stupid pitch count nonsense." Yes, it's true that those pitchers were very durable, but those older fans may also be using selective memory. For every Seaver or Ryan there are players who started promising careers with high innings totals, only to see their careers quickly fizzle out due to arm injuries.
Take Gary Nolan. In 1967 he produced what at that point was the greatest season ever by a pitcher who had started the season 18 years old. He threw 226.2 innings with a 2.58 ERA. He struck out Willie Mays 4 times in one game. He was a superstar in the making. He strained his shoulder the next spring training and the following 2 seasons he missed time due to injury. He put together a few healthy seasons and was terrific whenever he was on the mound. However, arm troubles became too much and he never threw an MLB pitch in his 30s. He had Hall of Fame talent, but perhaps 226.2 innings for a teenager is too much.
Dick Ellsworth had 5 straight 200 inning seasons by age 26, including 290.2 in his age 23 season. From 27 onward he managed just 542.1 innings.
Jim Maloney looked like a potential Hall of Famer in his 20s. He threw 47 innings in his 30s. He put up very high innings totals at a young age and battled arm injuries most of his career.
Sports Illusrated once said about Art Mahaffey “At 24 he is nearly ready to challenge Don Drysdale of the Dodgers and Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals as the fastest pitcher in baseball.” He threw 274 innings that year. He was injured the next season, never threw more than 157.1 innings in a single season and was finished by 28.
Mike McCormick was one of the most sought after high school pitchers of the mid 50s. He pitched over 1000 innings before age 23. He then missed large parts of the next 3 seasons. Came back and won a Cy Young award but arm injuries dogged him and he retired by 32.
Moe Drabowski looked like an emerging star at 21. He injured his elbow the next season and was never the same. He had a long career in relief, but it's hard to wonder whether he may have been able to stick longer in the rotation had his innings been managed better when he was young.
Dick Drott threw 229 innings as a 20 year old rookie and finished 3rd in rookie of the year voting and 21st in MVP. He suffered an arm injury the next season and was never effective again.
Ewell Blackwell was a very promising pitcher as a teenager, but had his career delayed due to World War II. When he finally arrived he was lights out. In 1947 he was the MVP runner up, pitching 273 innings with a 2.47 ERA. He was then injured the next 2 seasons. He returned for 2 more successful, healthy seasons, but couldn't remain healthy. He finished with career with an excellent 3.30 ERA but managed only 1321 IP. Over a third of those innings came in 2 seasons. Williams, Musial, Robinson, Kiner all said they hated facing him.
Dave Ferriss was one of best pitchers in baseball during his first 2 seasons. He injured his shoulder part way through his third season and was essentially done. He tossed 757 innings in his first 3 seasons with a 3.38 ERA. Only managed another 123 IP in his career with a 5.27 ERA.
Howie Pollett made the majors at age 20 and had a 2.21 ERA in his first 3 seasons including leading the league with a 1.75 ERA in his third year. Went to war for 2 years and in his first year back once again led the league in ERA with a 2.10 mark. He also led the league with 266 IP that year. Shoulder troubles emerged late that season. He stuck around the majors for another decade, but was never as effective as he was early in his career. Pollett looked like he would go on to be one of baseball's greatest pitchers in his early 20s, but that 266 inning season may have been the reason his arm was never the same.
Al Javery threw 818 innings over 3 seasons from age 24 to 26. He looked like a star in the making. Arm troubles emerged and he threw only 80 more innings during his career.
Russ Bauers had great age 23 and 24 seasons. He pitched 243 innings at age 24 and never threw more than 53 in a season for the rest of his career.
Cliff Melton started very promising. Tossed 491 innings his first 2 seasons. He began experiencing elbow issues in year 3 and lasted only 8 years despite being a quality pitcher.
Van Mungo tossed 1343 innings through his age 25 season. Shortly after his 4th straight all star appearance he injured his arm at age 26 and threw only 608 IP after his age 26 season. Another promising career possibly derailed by high innings totals.
Paul Dean, the brother of Dizzy Dean, was one of the best pitchers in baseball during his first two seasons, but had pitched 503 innings in two seasons before age 23. Injured his arm that offseason while barnstorming and pitched 284 innings from that point on.
Fred Newman looked like a promising pitcher throwing 260 innings at age 23 with a 2.93 ERA. 109 more innings and he was done by age 25.
Bill Singer, Steve Barber, Dave Boswell, Jim Nash, Tony Cloninger, the list goes on...
I only looked at pitchers from the mid 1930s to the mid 1960s and we can already see dozens of pitchers who were amazing pitchers in their early 20s only to suffer arm injuries right after seasons of well over 200 innings pitched. I didn't even include all of the pitchers who made it through their mid 20s only to fall off a cliff in their late 20s or early 30s. These are just guys who were pushed hard in their early 20s and had success, but their arms couldn't hold up. Almost every season there's an example of a young pitcher who showed promise only to fall apart.
People like to remember the guys like Nolan Ryan who could toss inning after inning, but often forget about the guys like Gary Nolan, Ewell Blackwell or Dave Ferriss who started their careers just as good, or better, but couldn't hold up under the high pitch counts that were expected in those days. We'll never know if some of these pitchers would have had longer and more successful careers had their innings been managed in a more thoughtful manner. There are also a lot of cases of guys who had long and successful careers, but their season inning totals bounced between 250 one year and 100 the next. People who reminisce about the good old days often forget about all the great young players who fizzled out. Pitchers weren't as durable as they think they remember them to be in those days. A few select were, but many had trouble dealing with those high workloads.
Teams today invest a lot more money in young players than they used to and don't want to take big risks with their players because of how much they have invested in them. I think there are definitely pitchers in baseball today who could withstand the crazy high innings totals from years ago, but there's not really a good way to know which pitchers can do that. If Clayton Kershaw were expected to pitch 250+ innings as a 20 year old he may not have stuck around long enough for him to become what he is today. Maybe Felix Hernandez could have pitched 300 innings during his prime, but would you want to send a guy out there that often when he's signed to a $135MM contract just to find out if he can do it? The risk outweighs the potential benefits.
Until teams find a better way to predict injuries they are going to take a cautious approach with their hurlers and it's hard to blame them. History is littered with pitchers who could have been Hall of Famers but may have failed to reach their peak due to overuse. This article also wouldn't be complete without bringing up one pitcher that I have yet to mention who was phenomenal in their 20s and threw a LOT of pitches, only to see their career end at age 30. If managers took a more cautious approach with pitchers back then would history have turned out differently for Sandy Koufax?
