We Should Probably Cool Our Jets On Lourdes Gurriel Jr A Bit
Lourdes Gurriel was the first player in the Blue Jays' youth movement to arrive and his hot start has some Jays fans seeing a future star. Unfortunately, projecting him as a future star is a bit of a stretch. He is a talented player, but he has a few major flaws that will keep him from reaching stardom. This isn't to say he won't be a productive player, but current expectations of him are much too high, in my opinion.
The biggest concern I have regarding Gurriel's offensive potential is his 39.7% chase rate. Kevin Pillar's chase rate for his career is 40.1%. Chase rate is a stat that normalizes quickly so we can't just say Gurriel is likely to improve this aspect of his game with time or that it's a small sample size mirage. He is a free swinger and that's just something we're going to have to get used to. Due to his poor plate discipline we can't expect him to have a high walk rate and that will limit his OBP upside. His minor league numbers also support the idea that he doesn't draw walks so this isn't a case of a young player eager to do too much. This might not seem like a problem when he's stringing together multi-hit games, but it will limit his offensive production in the long run.
Gurriel currently sports a 0.14 BB/K. In the entire history of baseball only Shawon Dunston's 102 wrc+ in 1995 has a player ever had a 0.14 BB/K or lower and produced an above average offensive season while qualifying for the batting title. Even if we bump the criteria to 0.20 BB/K the odds are stacked against producing a quality batting line with 22 of 83 seasons being above average. Bringing it up to a 0.30 BB/K still only produces an above average batting line in 229 of 535 qualified seasons. It is also worth noting that these are only players who qualified for the batting title so there is some survivorship bias involved. These are the players who played well enough to stick on the active roster. If we include all players with these low K/BB rates the odds of an above average offensive season get even lower. It is very hard for a player to be a good hitter with such a large gap between their walks and strikeouts. Gurriel absolutely must improve his strikeout to walk ratio if he's going to be an asset at the plate. Pitchers will catch on very quickly and exploit his free swinging ways. He may be having success right now, but history has shown us that this type of BB/K is not sustainable.
Free swingers also tend to be streaky. Prior to going on his record breaking multi-hit streak, Gurriel had a 63 wrc+. Ryan Goins has a career 62 wrc+. Players who chase as often as Gurriel are going to look really good when the hits are falling in for them and are going to look worse than they really are when the hits don't fall. Currently, Gurriel's numbers are propped up by his hot streak. We've seen this same story with Kevin Pillar multiple times. He looks great for stretches then comes back to earth.
Blue Jays fans seem to have short memories. Remember last year and the start of this year when fans were gushing about Teoscar Hernandez? His free swinging ways have also brought him back down to earth. There is talent in his bat, but not as much as it seemed when he was mashing everything in sight. Fans have quickly turned on him when less than a year ago they were dubbing him the next breakout slugger.
Plate discipline is but one part of hitting. Gurriel still has many skills at the plate that will allow him to overcome his poor plate discipline and make him an asset at the plate. His current line drive rate is an excellent 25.8%. A high line drive rate is key to a high batting average. He also has a very low 2.4% infield fly rate which will also help to maintain a high batting average. We still need a larger sample size for those stats to normalize, but if he can maintain those numbers it would be huge for his hitting potential.
Gurriel currently has a .294 AVG but is also running a .339 BABIP which could mean he has been getting lucky on balls he has put in play. If we adjusted him numbers to a league average BABIP he would have a .264 AVG. With that said, I think Gurriel has a hitting profile that will allow him to run an above average BABIP. Maintaining a .339 BABIP is probably unlikely, but I think it's very likely he will be above average in terms of BABIP. How much better than average is still to be determined and we will need multiple seasons of data to know.
Gurriel's .294/.320/.454 slash line and 7 home runs in 43 games looks impressive at first glance, but when we factor in league and park factors his wrc+ comes out to 109. He has been 9% better than league average with the bat. It's nothing to scoff at, especially from a “middle infielder”, but it's not as productive as people who look at old school stats like AVG would want to believe. Those lack of walks really keep his OBP down and it limits his total production.
His current strikeout rate is 20.7% which is lower than the league average of 21.5% after removing pitchers who hit. This is one area where his free swinging ways come in handy. His swinging strike rate of 11.2% is higher than the league average of 10.5%, but because he swings so often he puts balls in play early in counts and ends at bats before he can get to 2 strikes. I think Gurriel can get his strikeout rate even lower. A lower strikeout rate with an above average BABIP will lead to some pretty good offensive numbers.
Gurriel also has above average power. His current 17.1% HR/FB is probably unsustainable, but he should be able to have a quality Isolated Slugging percentage moving forward. Due to his low walk rate keeping his OBP lower, it is very important for him to hit for power so a high slugging percentage can prop up his overall batting line. I will be keeping a close eye on his power numbers because they will be key to his offence.
It may seem like I have a pessimistic view of Gurriel's offensive potential, but I actually think he will be an above average hitter. His power, line drive hitting, below average strikeout rate and lack of infield flies lead me to believe he is capable of being a roughly 110 wrc+ hitter with a few seasons around 120 or better. Similar players with poor plate discipline, but above average power include Didi Gregorius, Ozzie Albies, Josh Harrison, and Scooter Gennett. It's absolutely possible to make this hitting profile work. It is also worth keeping in mind that players like Gregorius and Albies provide a lot of value with their defence which considerably improves their overall production.
Gurriel's defence is ultimately what will keep him from being the star some people seem to envision him becoming. Lourdes has a reputation as a poor fielder. His footwork is lacking and he makes his fair share of defensive miscues. His plus arm isn't going to make up for all of that. His defensive numbers at shortstop are worrisome. He hasn't had nearly enough playing time to draw definitive conclusions from his defensive stats, but already accruing -5 defensive runs saved in just 174 innings at shortstop and a -18.9 UZR/150 are not good signs for his ability to stick there long term. He has been one of the worst defenders at the position in baseball this year. His numbers at second base are better, but still below average. When a player's numbers match up with their reputation there's good reason to believe they aren't a very good defender.
I believe the Blue Jays would be wise to see what Gurriel can do in the outfield. He has experience there in Cuba and his foot speed and arm will play well in the outfield. His poor infield footwork wouldn't be an issue in the outfield. I think Gurriel is most valuable to the Blue Jays as a super utility player. Having an above average bat that can be slotted in wherever needed is a valuable piece for a manager to have. Using him as a super utility player is the best way to maximize his talents and minimize his flaws. I think he could be one of the best utility players in baseball.
He is still young, so there is room for improvement. However, he will be turning 25 in October so it's not like he's a raw 20 year old. He's probably fairly close to being a finished product as he heads into his prime years. Gurriel has played roughly a quarter worth of a season's games and his 0.5 WAR translates to around 2.0 over a full season. So far he has produced at a league average rate. He's still young enough that we can expect improvement from him, but to get him to a star's level of improvement would take MASSIVE improvements in parts of his game that players generally don't make big strides with. He doesn't have the complete package to put up 5+ WAR seasons that star players do. I think 2 WAR over a full season will be on the low end of what he does throughout his prime and he will probably put up a few 3 WAR seasons and may even peak with a 4+ WAR season. This is good production, but from a fan perspective he will probably be treated like he's way better than he actually is.
I know some will see this article as crapping on him, but I don't think viewing him as an above average bat and average to above average overall is that bad of a thing. I just see too many flaws in his game to envision stardom in his future. He does well the things that fans overrate and struggles at the aspects of the game that average fans don't value as much as they should. Fans will look at his batting average and home run totals being among the best for a “middle infielder” and overrate him.
Despite what may look to some as a pessimistic view of Gurriel, I still think he will have a fine career. He might even make a few all star games due to his offensive numbers, but his contributions toward winning baseball games will be less than they seem. Still, 2 to 3 WAR is nothing to scoff at and Gurriel will play an important role in turning the Blue Jays back into contenders, especially if he's turned into a super utility player who can be moved around anywhere on the diamond as needed.
