Rowdy Tellez Is Looking Like The Player We Hoped He Was
Rowdy Tellez has fallen out of favour among Blue Jays fans more than probably any other prospect currently in the system. Prior to last season there were many fans ready to send Smoak packing and hand Tellez the first base job. After a disappointing 2017 season, he is mostly an afterthought now. Despite the hype wearing off, Tellez remains an interesting prospect. He's not as exciting as he was when in 2016 when he produced a 152 wrc+ as a 21 year old in AA, but he still has many of the skills that made him so highly regarded just 2 years ago. He is also still very young. At 23 he's now in his second season at AAA when many players his age are just now reaching AA for the first time.
Tellez started slowly this season and as a result many of the people who hadn't already written him off began to write him off. He has really turned his season around and since July 1st has produced a 164 wrc+. It's only a month and a half of elite production, but to give context to just how well he has hit since the start of July, only 4 hitters this season have a higher wrc+ in the majors: Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, JD Martinez and Jose Ramirez. Tellez has been mashing lately and he has his season wrc+ all the way up to 122. That 122 wrc+ is good for 14th in the International League. Only 2 players in the league are younger than Tellez and have a higher wrc+. One of those players is Danny Jansen. This year Tellez has quietly put up one of the best offensive seasons for a prospect at AAA. Another good sign is that he is producing quality numbers without the help of an inflated BABIP. Tellez's main skill is his ability to avoid striking out. Rowdy's 15.8% strikeout rate ranks 9th in the international league. Only 3 of players ahead of him can be considered legitimate prospects. Even if Tellez's strikeout rate rises when reaching the majors, there's a good chance he will still be able to run a below average strikeout rate. Having the ability to put the ball in play so often means Tellez should be able to produce a quality batting average and his offensive floor is quite high. His 8.6% swinging strike rate ranks 13th in the International League and is a good sign that he can continue to avoid Ks once he reaches the majors. The young first base prospect is also quite good at drawing walks. His 9.0% walk rate isn't at the same level of his 12.3% performance in 2016, but it is still a solid number. Of the 8 players in the International League with a lower strikeout rate, only 3 have a higher walk rate. Two of those players are non-prospects over 30 years old, and the other player is Danny Jansen. As a result of Tellez's patience and contact oriented approach he ranks 11th in the league with a 0.57 bb/k.
Last season 41 players had a strikeout rate below 20% and a walk rate greater than 8%. Based on Tellez's minor league numbers it's not unreasonable to think Tellez could reach both of those benchmarks. Of those 41 players only 6 failed to achieve a wrc+ over 100 (league average). Tellez's AAA strikeout to walk ratio is very encouraging. Even if we lower the walk threshold to 7% there are now 51 players in our sample and only 10 of them failed to achieve a league average batting line. Players who take walks and don't strike out a lot have a high offensive floor. Players who add power to that profile end up being some of the best hitters in the game.
Tellez has the body that you would typically see from a power hitter, but he has yet to fully unleash his power potential. His .169 Isolated slugging percentage this year is an improvement on last year's .110, but still a far way off the .233 he produced in 2016. If he can recapture his 2016 power surge he will have a very high likelihood of becoming a great hitter in the majors. First basemen are expected to hit much more than most other positions, but the bar isn't as high as many seem to think. The average first baseman wrc+ this season is 107 with a .249/.330/.437 slash line. Even without a return of 2016's power there is a decent chance that Tellez can match that slash line. He won't be a star if he has an average bat at first base, but he will still be a contributor. The next few seasons will be about finding as many players as possible who will not be black holes of production to surround Vlad Jr with.
I was one of those people who were down on Tellez, but the more I look into what he has been doing at the plate this year, the more encouraged I become. Rowdy Tellez is by no means a sure thing to succeed in the majors, but he has shown some skills that allow players to succeed at the highest level. Much of his potential relies on whether his power develops. As long as Tellez continues to have a low strikeout rate he will remain a breakout candidate because he's just a power surge away from being an offensive threat. I hope he will get a chance to show what he can do as a September call-up this year and see if he can maintain his contact skills at the game's highest level. Smoak will be in the last year of his contract in 2019 and if Rowdy can keep hitting like he has this season he may end up taking over from Smoak after all, just a few seasons later than some fans were originally thinking.
