Does Jonathan Davis Have A Future As A Starting CF?
Jonathan Davis got off to a terrific start in AA and some fans had visions of him taking over as the center fielder of the future in Toronto. However, there are a lot of red flags in his statistical profile that suggests that is unlikely.
The first one is his age. He is already 26 years old. If a 22 year old at AA had a .302/.388/.443 slash line with plus speed and defence they would be considered a top prospect. However, Davis' age makes that line a little less impressive. At 26 he is entering his physical peak. He is 1.7 years older than the average Eastern League player. That age gap matters. While he's at his physical maturity he's playing against players who are still growing into their bodies. He also has more playing experience than these younger players.
Another red flag in his AA batting line is the .345 BABIP. That elevated BABIP isn't built on a lot of line drives or an all-field approach, therefore it's probably not sustainable. There's a good chance his batting line at AA was built on a fair bit of luck.
Coming into this season his best year as a pro came in 2016 when he produced a very strong 142 wrc+. He was 42% better at the plate than the average hitter in the Florida State League. But again, it has to be taken with a grain of salt because he was old for the level. We can't just throw out every strong performance because a guy is old for their level, but time and time again we have seen players who are old for their level struggle to maintain those results against better competition.
Despite being old for his levels throughout most of his minor league career, he has still shown skills that do make him a prospect with a legitimate major league future. In 2016 he had an excellent 13.5% walk rate and the following season he was able to maintain a high walk rate with a 12.6% during his first crack at AA in 2017. He has also showed a bit of pop at some stops in his minor league career, although that has abandoned him lately. His biggest asset is his speed and that is probably what will get him to the majors.
The biggest knock against Davis has been his strikeout rate. He struck out over 20% of the time in both 2016 and 2017. He cut that down to 14.8% in AA and it was looking like he had improved upon one of his biggest flaws and his major league prospects improved quite a bit.
Something I have yet to mention is his performance since being promoted to AAA this year. That is because it's where I think Jonathan Davis is showing his true talent. He is playing against age appropriate competition and so far has struggled. His 97 wrc+ has him producing less than average on offence. The strikeout rate is fine, there isn't a whole lot of power and the ability to draw walks has mostly dried up. I think the walk rate will come up, but even with a rise to 8 or 9% he's still not going to be destroying the competition at the plate. His .253/.308/.394 slash line at AAA is right about where I would expect him to be if he were to play in the majors. And that could even be considered optimistic.
Davis has the tools to be a major league outfielder, but the idea of him being a quality starting outfielder is a bit far fetched. He has struggled every time he has faced age appropriate competition. If forced into a starting role, he could probably keep his head above water, but the chances of him ever being above average with his current skillset is unlikely.
Steamer Projections have his major league projections at a 7.9% walk rate, 22.3% strikeout rate and a .127 ISO. All of these numbers appear very reasonable based on his minor league performance. With a .295 BABIP that would be good for a .238/.310/.365 slash line that would be 15% below league average. That's similar production to Kevin Pillar. Unless he's an even better fielder than Pillar there's a good chance he's not an improvement.
I like Davis as a 4th outfielder. He has the skills to excel there. He has steadily improved his game to put him on the MLB radar, but he would need some big improvements to become a quality starting center fielder. It could happen, but players who do that are outliers and not the norm. If Davis becomes an integral part of the next winning Blue Jays club I'd be pleasantly surprised, but I'm not counting on it.
