Why Did Pillar's Offence Crater Once Again?
I don't believe in monthly splits having any kind of predictive value. People who have looked into them haven't found anything that suggests they can be used to forecast future production. If a player usually struggles in a certain month, it's not a predictor that they will continue to struggle during that month in future years. It's likely just a coincidence. I'm sure you've figured out who this post is about by now.
Last season was the first time Kevin Pillar had a wrc+ above 100 in the month of April, so the narrative that he always starts hot then craters in May is overblown. Last year was the first April that could actually be qualified as good. Yes, he does now have a 4 year trend where he does worse in May compared to April, but that's likely just statistical noise. He's a streaky hitter. Always has been.
What I do find interesting is that on May 2nd he was hitting .324 with a .951 OPS. During that game he made a nice diving catch and appeared to injure his thumb or wrist. Since that date, he has hit .207 with a .545 OPS. Monthly splits make for a nice story and they're cute if you believe in superstition, but I want better answers than that. Is it possible that Pillar injured himself on that play and it has contributed to his bat declining?
Take a look at the game logs for Pillar's career and in every full season of his career you'll find a 50+ game stretch where he absolutely rakes. Those are long periods of greatness, nearly a third of a season, yet he can never figure it out for an entire season.
Pillar actually has some tools that could make him a great hitter. He ranked 3rd in the majors for contact rate on pitches in the strike zone last year. That's an elite skill, and an important one. Unfortunately, he also makes contact with a lot of pitches out of the zone and those usually lead to weak contact.
Pillar's furthest home run was 451 feet last year. That was the 69th longest personal best out of 444 hitters. Further than Miguel Cabrera, Kris Bryant or Bryce Harper hit a ball last year. His max exit velocity of 111.9 MPH ranked 112th out of 444. Hitting the ball hard is a skill and an important one. It's also not something a guy just lucks into. You don't see guys like Ezequiel Carrera or Ben Revere with 112 MPH exit velocities.
Despite Pillar's ability to hit the ball harder than nearly 3/4 of the hitters in the league, his average exit velocity ranked below average last season. He was 308th out of 444 with an average of 85.6 MPH. The guy simply makes contact with too many pitches out of the zone and it causes a lot of weak contact.
It's rare for players to change their plate discipline mid-career. It's a skill that usually stays mostly the same. He's unlikely to suddenly stop offering at bad pitches. However, Pillar has the physical tools to be a great hitter. Not everyone can hit a ball 450 feet or make contact on 90% of pitches within the zone. He's so close to being a good hitter and a slight change could unlock his talent. Unfortunately there's been so much time passed that it's hard to believe that adjustment will ever come.
Now, that's not to say it's impossible. I'm going to present you with 2 players:
Player A: 2076 career plate appearances, .264/.302/.390, 85 wrc+, 3 time gold glove finalist, age 29 Player B: 2429 career plate appearances, .247/.295/.389, 88 wrc+, 2 time gold glove winner, age 28
Player A is Kevin Pillar heading into this season. Player B is Devon White the day he was traded to the Blue Jays. White was also a defensive whiz who had yet to find himself at the plate. He went on to produce 21 fWAR over the next 5 years for the Blue Jays.
I've been a massive skeptic of Pillar's right from the start. Even when he came up as a .300 hitting minor leaguer I didn't see him succeeding at the plate with that discipline. He turned into the hitter I expected him to be. But I just can't shake this feeling that there could be more. I'm not holding my breath waiting for it, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he put together a half decent season at the plate at some point in his career. Hell, maybe he'll .350 BABIP his way to a strong season.
This post has been about his bat, but I don't want to ignore his glove. It's easy to focus on what a guy can't do and ignore what he can do. The past 3 seasons Pillar was one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. That can't be discounted. Finding people capable of manning center is no easy task. Finding guys who are elite at it is even harder. As a result, despite his mediocre bat, he put up fWAR totals that were either around average or even better for a center fielder.
Yes, his fWAR has declined each year and his defensive numbers are down this year. He's definitely trending in the wrong direction. He still ranks 10th in defensive runs saved among center fielders despite a drop-off in range this year. It will take more than half a season to determine whether he's now below average in range, or if it was a blip. It's very possible he's still a plus defender at a premium position.
Currently, Pillar isn't great. He's still deserving of a starting center fielder job, but he's now on the lower end of that list, rather than in the middle or better. He will hold some value to teams who like his defence and think there's untapped potential in his bat.
The Blue Jays would probably be wise to consider seeing what they can get for him this deadline or in the offseason because if he's going to have a good season it's likely to happen in the next couple years and it would be better served on a contender. I can't help but think of what a good fit he would be in San Francisco. It'd be a shame to let him go and see him blossom the way Devon White did, but it's probably a risk worth taking, especially with the ability to slide Grichuk into center and the possibility that Alford turns his season around and can take the job next year.
Pillar can make contact as good as anyone in the game. He has the ability to hit the ball harder than 3/4 of the guys out there when he connects with one. It's that damn free-swinging attitude that gets him. He can't make use of his physical talents consistently enough. He is probably what he has shown us so far and nothing more. It's worthy of a starting job somewhere, but it's also pretty 'meh'.
But back to that dive. I'm really curious about that dive. In the 10 games prior to and including the dive he hit .371 with a 1.286 OPS. In the 10 games after the dive he hit .293, but with a low .724 OPS. The numbers only continued to go downhill from there. In the 51 games since the dive he has 15 extra base hits, compared to 18 in the 30 games prior. His average exit velocity at the time of the dive was a respectable 89 MPH and well higher than his career norm. He has averaged 86.1 MPH since that point. Is it possible he hurt himself on the dive and it sapped his ability to drive the ball? It's certainly more believable than the baseball gnomes who come out from under his bed every May and fuck with his jock strap.
