Which Of The Blue Jays Veteran Relievers Is Most Likely To Sustain Their Hot Start?
Tyler Clippard, John Axford and Seung-Hwan Oh have exceeded expectations so far in 2018. They were each brought in because of solid track records of success and they each showed promising signs of bounce back potential. However, nobody could have seen this early success coming. With ERAs of 1.23, 1.31 and 1.45 it's safe to say they have been better than anybody could have hoped for. This begs the question, is it sustainable?
The quick and easy answer is no. It's unlikely any of these pitchers finishes the season with an ERA below 2.00. Seung-Hwan Oh had a 1.92 ERA in 2016, so it's not even that crazy to think he could repeat that feat. Clippard and Axford both achieved a sub 2.00 ERA in 2011. With that said, realistically it's just not very likely, but that's not to say they can't continue to be valuable going forward.
While ERA is useful for understanding what has happened, it has a shaky track record for predicting future performance. A lot of noise goes into ERA. FIP has a better track record because it focusses solely on the elements mostly in a pitcher's control; strikeouts, walks and home runs. It focusses solely on outcomes that do not involve defence. A better description of FIP can be found here According to FIP, Axford is the most likely pitcher to sustain their performance. His improved control is a strong indicator that he can continue to suppress runs. He has always been good at getting groundballs and strikeouts, but free passes have often been his downfall.
Oh has a 3.05 FIP thanks to his superb command. Allowing just 1.45 BB/9 is a great way to keep runs from scoring. He supplements his great walk rate with an strong 9.64 K/9. Oh is a flyball pitcher so he will be susceptible to the long ball. So far he has allowed only 8.0% HR/FB which has kept his HR/9 at a decent 0.96. He is likely to start giving up home runs at a higher rate as the season goes on so a big factor in how much his ERA rises will be whether there are runners on base when he gives up the dingers.
FIP is less optimistic about the performance of Clippard. FIP has him pegged at 4.11 due to a mediocre walk rate and an extreme flyball profile. Clippard has been the beneficiary of an extremely low .167 BABIP. Clippard has been no stranger to an unusually low BABIP so I'm not ready to write off his early success as luck.
xFIP is similar to FIP except it adjusts a pitcher's home run rate based on their flyball rate rather than just using their home run totals. xFIP is important because it helps give an idea about whether a pitcher has been lucky on flyballs. All three of the Blue Jays veteran relievers have seen a good amount of flyball luck. Clippard's FIP goes from 4.11 to 4.57 using xFIP. Axford sees a jump from 2.52 to 3.95. He has yet to give up a home run this year, but that trend is unlikely to continue. Oh sees his FIP go from 3.05 to an xFIP of 3.84.
According to Statcast data found at Baseball Savant, these three pitchers haven't been experiencing too much luck and their positive results are more of a result of suppressing hard contact. I like to compare xwOBA with their actual wOBA to see whether they have been fortunate or not. Oh's xwOBA is nearly identical to his wOBA with a .252 xwOBA compared to .253. Axford has given up a .249 wOBA, but his xwOBA of .276 is still excellent. Clippard has matched Axford with a .249 wOBA allowed and his .281 xwOBA is also stellar.
Aside from Oh these pitchers haven't been elite in striking out batters or limiting walks, but they have instead found success by suppressing hard contact. Oh has allowed the hardest average exit velocity at 88.4 MPH, but he has offset that with by far the best strikeout to walk ratio. Clippard's average exit velocity of 85.1 MPH ranks 12th out of 244 pitchers with at least 50 batted balls. Axford ranks 34th with 85.9 MPH.
The awesome performances by this trio are already in the bank and they have been invaluable to this team so far. Looking forward the signals are mixed. Based on Oh's excellent strikeout to walk ratio I would choose him as the most likely to continue being dominant going forward. Axford has been fantastic due to his lowered walk rate, but his track record of poor control has me a bit skeptical. If he starts giving up more free passes it's going to be hard for him to continue suppressing runs, especially with his much lower strikeout rate compared to past seasons. Also, he is due to start giving up home runs. Clippard is a tougher one to project. His fielding independent numbers are not pretty and suggest a lot of regression coming. However, he has maintained a BABIP below .200 in 3 separate seasons, so it wouldn't be entirely surprising to see him do it again. Extreme flyball pitchers can run very low BABIPs for extended periods of time, as we have seen with Marco Estrada. I won't be surprised if more hits start falling and if more balls start leaving the park of Clippard pitches, but he could still maintain a quality ERA.
At this point these three pictures have pretty much paid for their contracts already and any production from this point onward is gravy. With the way the rotation has performed so far, they might need to keep producing if this team wants to stay competitive.
