Lourdes Gurriel Jr Probably Isn't A Future Star
Lourdes Gurriel Jr was brought to the majors with quite a bit of fanfare. He comes from a legendary Cuban baseball family, he had an excellent spring and got off to a terrific start in AA. The early results in the majors were promising. Not really from a slash line perspective, but a few clutch hits made it appear like he was producing. Things quickly went downhill for Gurriel as he stopped producing at the plate and showed inconsistency in the field.
Still, despite his obvious struggles in his first taste of the majors, there are still many fans who believe we have a future star infielder on our hands. I'm less optimistic. Gurriel showed some serious flaws in his game that will likely limit his ceiling.
As mentioned earlier, his defence was inconsistent during his big league cup of coffee. This is also the reputation he had coming with him when he arrived. He has a good arm and solid range, but mental mistakes are often his undoing. He is known for being able to play all over the diamond, but doesn't seem to excel at one particular position. Most of what I've read says he isn't a true shortstop. He can play there if needed, but probably doesn't have the glove to be there everyday. He probably is defensively skilled enough o be a starting second baseman. Being more of a second baseman than a shortstop limits his value.
Gurriel is extremely swing happy. His chase rate of 43.5% is higher than Kevin Pillar has ever produced. He also offers at a high percentage of pitches in the zone. His overall swing % of 56.4% is well above the league average rate of 45.7%. With such a swing happy approach he isn't going to draw many walks. Without a lot of walks he's not going to produce a quality OBP. He has had low walk numbers in the minors, so this isn't something new for him either.
The chance that he's going to be a low OBP hitter puts a lot of pressure on his quality of contact. He needs to make contact often and he has to hit for power if he's going to be an asset at the plate. Gurriel makes contact with pitches in the zone 84.7% of the time, below the league average of 85.2%. His overall contact rate is above the league average due to a O-contact% of 71.4% that is well above average. He also swings and misses more than the average hitter. Gurriel is not an elite contact hitter. Kevin Pillar was one of the best at making contact with pitches in the zone last season and still only managed a 85 wrc+. It's really difficult to be a good hitter if you're not walking and producing a strong OBP.
The positive in Gurriel's hitting profile is that he makes a lot of hard contact. His average exit velocity of 91.4 MPH is better than the league average of 88.3 MPH. Kevin Pillar is having a breakout season at the plate thanks to an improved exit velocity, so there is definitely hope that Gurriel can also produce strong numbers despite putrid plate discipline. Gurriel's xwOBA of .347 suggests he is capable of good offensive numbers based on his quality of contact. The .115 gap between his xwOBA and actual wOBA points to a lot of bad luck. He probably deserved better results in his time in the majors. His .245 BABIP is another indication that luck was not on his side.
Gurriel showed a very pull heavy approach at the plate. This could become a problem if it continues. It will make him easier to shift on defensively. Also, pull heavy hitters tend to produce somewhat lower BABIPs. Without a line drive heavy approach there's a possibility that Gurriel could struggle to maintain a quality BABIP that pushes his numbers up.
Gurriel is a very toolsy player. He shows flashes of star-like talent, but struggles with consistency. He hits the ball hard, he has a good arm, he's a good runner, but too often he fails to make full use of his talents. Based on his defensive reputation and his plate discipline issues, it's very hard to project stardom in his future. He is definitely a talented player, but right now he looks more like a very good utility player or just a run of the mill starting second baseman. The power is intriguing though. If he can tap into his power often enough to be a 20-25 HR guy he might do enough at the plate to overcome his OBP issues. Gurriel is still only 24 so there is time for him to improve some of his flaws. Unfortunately, he has a number of flaws and it's unlikely that he addresses all of the issues he needs to become the star some people see him becoming.
