When Is The Right Time To Call Up Vladimir Guerrero Jr?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr has been dominating AA and is hitting .398/.455/.624. With Kendrys Morales struggling mightily and the Blue Jays fighting for a playoff spot there has been a lot of discussion about whether the time is right to call up Vlad Jr. The topic has been beaten to death at this point, however, there are a few points on the topic that I haven't seen talked about too much that are worth mentioning.
AA is often considered the ultimate proving ground in the minor leagues. The leap from AA to AAA isn't a big as the jump between other levels. It's probably safe to say that Vladimir's bat is major league ready. He probably doesn't have anything left to prove in the minors with his bat and at this point the development of his hitting would probably be best served by facing major league pitchers. We have seen many teenage phenoms reach the majors and struggle at the plate. Mike Trout and Alex Rodriguez hit poorly in their first taste of the majors, but those struggles likely played a major role in their development. Both players returned for their age 20 seasons and finished as runner up in MVP voting before going on to be the best players of their generation. Sometimes a hitter needs to face some adversity in the majors to reach their full potential. Giving Guerrero Jr an opportunity to struggle in the majors and learn to make adjustments could be invaluable experience for him. He isn't going to get that at AA facing pitchers he's way too good for.
Guerrero Jr's fielding, on the other hand, is not major league ready. GM Ross Atkins has said that defence is one reason why they want Guerrero Jr to remain in the minors. It's a valid concern, but is it worth keeping him in the minors for? Sure, game action on defence is important and he'll develop as a third baseman slower if he's only seeing the field a couple times a week in the majors and spending the rest of the time at DH. However, many believe that Guerrero Jr is destined for first base in the long run anyway. No matter where he ends up on the field he's going to be a bat-first player. Is it really worth delaying the development of his bat at the expense of his glove just so he can improve at a position he probably isn't even destined for long term? This is a question that can only be answered by the front office. If they believe Guerrero can stick at third base then the chance to improve his fielding is worth keeping him down. If he's not a third baseman long term then it might be best to get him facing major league pitching sooner than later so he can learn to make adjustments against the best pitchers in the world.
Service time is another consideration often brought up. However, if Guerrero Jr were brought up today he wouldn't lose a year of service time. Enough time has passed that he wouldn't accumulate a full year of service time. That would mean they would control Guerrero Jr for the rest of this season and the subsequent 6 full years. If the team wants to save a year of control it would mean having to keep him down for most of next April. If Vlad keeps dominating the minors the rest of 2018 it will be hard to justify keeping him down to start next season. If he is still in the minors at the start of next season it will obviously be to manipulate his service time. It's a common tactic, the Braves did it to Ronald Acuna this year and it caused quite the stir when the Cubs did it to Kris Bryant in 2015. Sacrificing a couple of weeks of playing time to gain a full year of service is a smart baseball move, but it's bad optics.
The other service time consideration is the super two deadline. If Guerrero Jr were to come up now he would qualify for super two arbitration. This extra year of arbitration eligibility would be costly to the team. If Guerrero reaches his potential as a superstar, his arbitration salaries will jump quickly. The team may prefer to wait until the super two deadline has passed so they can save millions in the long run.
Many Blue Jays fans still have memories of Travis Snider being fast tracked to the majors and they are concerned the Blue Jays could repeat that mistake with Vlad Jr. I believe the Snider comparison is a bad one, though. Snider was a flawed player when he came up. He had a major strikeout problem in the minors that he was expected to address in the majors. Guerrero Jr doesn't have any obvious flaws in his hitting. He is as close to a finished product with the bat as you'll ever find in the minor leagues. Snider was a top prospect, but that doesn't mean he was the same level of prospect as Guerrero Jr. Guerrero Jr is a generational talent on the level of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Those players moved quickly because their development demanded it.
Realistically the division is probably a pipe dream so any improvements the team makes to their roster are for a chance at the wild card. The Blue Jays have a real shot at the playoffs this season so fielding the best team possible is a good idea. Capitalizing on the last year of Donaldson's contract is a good idea because you never know when the team will have another chance for the playoffs. However, you have to ask yourself whether it's worth costing the team millions in future salary or losing a year of a superstar all for a chance at a one game wild card playoff? Ultimately the team needs to do what is best for the player's development. He has the ability to impact the team's chances for 7 seasons so the team needs to decide when they want him to get started. There is lots of information that we as fans don't have access to. The front office knows this player better than anyone and it's up to us to trust them to do what is best.
