The Blue Jays Aren't Trading Donaldson
The Toronto Blue Jays front office seemingly explored trading Donaldson in the offseason but obviously didn't get an offer to their liking. Veterans on short, expensive deals simply weren't fetching a lot this year. St. Louis was the most aggressive team and when it became apparent they weren't going to get Donaldson, they moved on and traded for Marcel Ozuna. The package that Miami got for Ozuna is likely similar to what Toronto would have received for Donaldson. Ozuna had an excellent 2017 season, is younger, has an extra year of service and is on a cheaper contract. His trade value was probably very close to Josh's.
Miami got some decent players, but nobody that makes it worth throwing in the towel for 2018. If Donaldson gets traded in the offseason the front office doesn't go out and trade for Solarte, they don't trade for Grichuk and Diaz, they don't sign Jaime Garcia for rotation depth and they don't sign those veteran relievers. The rebuild would have been on and the team doesn't compete this year. In a year when seemingly more than half the teams aren't even trying to go for it, the Blue Jays saw an opportunity. They had a solid core that could be a contender, so they went out and added the depth pieces they needed so they could be competitive all year long and deal with any injuries that may occur.
To a playoff contender the value of a player like Donaldson cannot be understated. He is still one of the best offensive players in the game. Toronto built a deep team with loads of average or better players, but any true playoff contender needs a superstar. Solarte has done a fine job filling in when Donaldson was injured, but he simply can't replace Donaldson's production. Nobody on the Jays can. If they want a shot at the playoffs, they need to keep JD. Teams who are serious about competing don't trade their best player because they're afraid of losing him for nothing.
Last season the Blue Jays averaged just under 40,000 fans per home game. This year attendance is down to 25,000 per game. That's a lot of lost revenue. Last season's disappointing record drove the fans away, but as we've seen recently, when the Blue Jays are winning they draw crowds as big as any team in baseball. The Blue Jays have a shot at contention this year and if they continue to stay in the playoff race the fans will come back. There is a huge revenue boost at stake. When considering a potential Donaldson trade, the front office not only has to factor in the players they could potentially receive, they also have to factor in the huge revenue boost that comes with a possible playoff run.
Fans keep saying "We can't lose Donaldson for nothing. We have to get something for him." Well, what about getting a playoff appearance out of him, a huge revenue boost and a draft pick? Those things have real value and likely equal or top whatever prospect capital they would receive in a trade. We can't think about transactions solely in terms of the players involved. There is so much more to the equation than that. The Nationals aren't trading Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy because they "can't lose them for nothing". Cleveland isn't worried about losing Andrew Miller to free agency. The Dodgers aren't shopping Kershaw because they're worried he'll opt out and walk. Winning teams let players walk in free agency all the time. St. Louis let Albert Pujols go "for nothing" after 4 straight seasons of top 5 MVP finishes. They wanted to win more than they wanted to get prospects. Can you blame them? They took the wild card and then the World Series. Do you think before the season started their fans were worried about losing Pujols for nothing? Where a team is on the win curve makes a big difference in the decision about whether to trade a star. This is why Harper won't get traded, but Manny Machado will (unless, of course the Nationals don't climb back into contention).
Everything boils down to money. There are dollar values assigned to these players. Each team probably has their own value for each player, but if a trade is going to happen the numbers have to add up. For example, if Donaldson has $30 Million in surplus value, the team trading for him is only going to want to give up roughly $30 million of prospect value. Teams determine prospect value using historical comps and the value those players brought to teams. For the Blue Jays, a trade of Donaldson has to make sense not only in terms of the players coming back, but the revenue lost from trading away the team's best player in the middle of a playoff push. If the Blue Jays calculate that a playoff run is going to be worth say $20 million to them then any prospects they receive in a trade need to not only bring back Donaldson's worth, but the lost revenue from giving up on the playoffs. The draft pick they would lose also has value. These numbers were pulled out of my ass and each team has their own values, but I used them as an example to show why the Blue Jays have been hesitant to trade Donaldson so far. The value they have been offered to trade him probably has not added up to the value of keeping him.
If the team is out of the playoff race then it makes sense to trade Donaldson because the revenue boost from a playoff race and potential playoff run is no longer a part of the equation. The prospects are then more valuable to the team than Donaldson would be. But, as long as the team has a shot at contention they must keep him. Imagine the resentment from fans if the team was in the hunt and traded Donaldson only to see the team fall just short of the playoffs? Remember 2014 when Bautista and many fans were upset that Anthopoulos didn't do more to add to the team and make a run for it? Now we have fans eager to trade the team's best player from a team that, as I write this between the doubleheader, is on pace for 94 wins. Make up your minds people! You can't be mad that they didn't do more in 2014 then call for JD to be traded when we have a winning team. As of now, we have a contender, we can't be thinking about subtracting from this team to add some players who MIGHT help us with a MAYBE contender in what, 2022? At some point you have to play for today and until this team shows it's not a potential playoff team they need all the star players they can get. If Toronto is in the hunt come July they need to be thinking about adding on, not trading guys away.
If the Blue Jays make the playoffs, that added revenue is extremely valuable to the team and probably makes it worthwhile hanging onto Donaldson even if it means losing him to free agency and getting only a draft pick. When there is an opportunity to be a playoff team the Blue Jays owe it to their fans to go for it, and to do what they need to field the best team possible. Josh Donaldson is an elite player and is irreplaceable. Giving up on a contending team is a far worse thing than losing Donaldson for nothing.
