Can We Trust Kevin Pillar's Hot Start?
Kevin Pillar seems to be a bit underrated. Since becoming a full time player in 2015, Kevin Pillar ranks 14th among center fielders with 9.1 fWAR and, of the players ahead of him, 5 no longer play center field. He hasn't been a dominant hitter, but he still provides excellent production through elite defence. Offence is what gets people most excited so Pillar seems to get a bad rap due to his poor hitting. When adding up all of his production he's a better player than many Jays fans seem to want to give him credit for.
So far in 2018 he ranks 4th among center fielders with 1.3 fWAR. His defence has taken a step backwards, and this time it's his bat propping up his production. For a player with such a poor track record at the plate this is a bit worrying if you're hopeful that he can continue producing like one of the best center fielders in baseball. However, there are also signs that Pillar's bat may have turned the corner.
Pillar's statcast data suggests his results this year are based on quality contact. His xwOBA is .378, only slightly lower than his wOBA of .388. Pillar's average exit velocity is up to 89.0 MPH after averaging just 85.5 MPH last season. His .353 BABIP may seem like he has been lucky, but his xBA of .324 is actually .009 higher than his .315 batting average. The high BABIP is actually the result of an elite 31.5% line drive rate. Pillar has always had above average line drive rates, but he has taken things to a new level so far in 2018. He isn't likely to maintain a 30%+ line drive rate for the entire season, so we should see some regression in his batting average, but there's no reason to think he won't continue to hit an above average amount of line drives and maintain a solid batting average.
The biggest issue with Pillar's offensive production has always been his plate discipline, or should I say lack thereof. Little seems to have changed in that area. His 5.9% walk rate would be a career high, but it's still quite a bit below league average. He is chasing as many pitches out of the zone as he usually does and he is offering at a similar amount of pitches in the zone as well. Pillar has a .361 OBP, but that number will come down when he starts hitting fewer line drives and his batting average comes down. Improvement in Pillar's plate discipline doesn't seem likely so any offensive production will have to come from quality contact.
Pillar has good quality contact this season, but on fly balls it appears he has experienced a great deal of luck. His wOBA on fly balls has been a phenomenal .526, but his xwOBA has been .338. The .188 gap between his expected production and actual production means he's likely due for quite a bit of regression on fly balls. His hard hit rate on fly balls is just 28.0% compared to his career rate of 26.0% but his batting average is .261 and is slugging .913 compared to career rates of .168 and .453. More balls are leaving the yard for Pillar and he has a HR/FB rate of 16.0% against 6.8% for his career. He is hitting the ball in the air softer than league average, yet is hitting home runs at a higher rate than average. This is unlikely to continue long term.
Pillar got off to a hot start last season only to see his performance dwindle as the season went on. As a result, a lot of people think the same will happen this season. This is a logical fallacy. Monthly splits have very little predictive value and just because he has struggled in May in the past is no guarantee he will struggle this May. His batted ball data is a mixture of good and bad, but nothing points to him his results being way out of whack with his quality of contact.
The plate discipline issues remain and he's getting lucky on fly balls, but the key thing is he is hitting the ball harder overall when compared to past seasons. If he keeps putting a sting into the ball he should continue to get good results. He is going to see his BABIP and ISO come down, but not so much to completely crater his offensive production. If his exit velocity remains where it has been to start the year there's no reason to believe he can't produce a wrc+ over 100 going forward. If his elite defence returns we have a very good player on our hands, probably one of the 10 best center fielders in baseball.
As I'm writing this Pillar has a 2 hit day and a walk to further improve his numbers. He also made a nice diving catch that may have injured his wrist or thumb. Hopefully it isn't serious and doesn't impact his ability to hit the ball hard.
