Will Strikeouts Limit Anthony Alford's Upside?
Anthony Alford has the physical talents of a major league baseball player. He has plus speed and great raw power. There's no denying his physical talents. On top of that, he has excellent patience at the plate. It's easy to see why he projects as a potential impact player in the majors. However, there is one aspect of his game that could limit his ceiling. The ol' swing and miss.
During his first extended look at professional pitching at single-A in 2015 he ran a 25.9% K rate. Despite the elevated strikeout numbers he hit very well and was promoted mid-season to high-A. In a very promising sign, he lowered his K rate to 19.2% after moving up a level. Between the two levels he hit .298/.398/.421 while also showing off his speed on the bases going 27/7 in stolen bases. Against older competition and from a young man who had limited baseball experience this was a phenomenal season.
Alford repeated high-A in 2016 and saw the strikeout issues return. This time his K rate jumped all the way to 29.2%. As a result, his slash line slumped to .236/.344/.378. The OBP was still solid due to a 13.2% walk rate, but the swing and miss was reason for concern. He could still be a dangerous player, the speed alone makes him valuable on defence and the bases, but if he wanted to be an impact hitter he simply could not do so with a strikeout rate pushing 30%. To have that high of a strikeout rate at high-A was troubling.
Physical tools weren't the only great thing about Alford though. He is known for his work ethic and ability to make adjustments. 2017 saw massive improvement in his strikeout rate and he nearly cut it in half to 15.6%. Injuries slowed him down a bit, but he was looking every bit the part of the top prospect Toronto thought he could become when they drafted him. AA and co.'s gamble seemed to be paying off. However, there was one thing in his stats that stood out to me and that was his swinging strike rate. In 2016 when he was struggling with strikeouts he swung and missed 11.1% of the time. In 2017 his swinging strike rate actually rose to 11.3%. Now, I'm not entirely sure how trustworthy the minor league swinging strike numbers at Fangraphs are and there are other plate discipline numbers that can factor into strikeout rate that aren't available, but I did find it curious that he cut his strikeouts so dramatically, but didn't cut out the swing and miss. Without more plate discipline stats it's hard to know if last year's drop in Ks was just smoke and mirrors.
Because of the swinging strike rate staying essentially the same I was a bit skeptical heading into this season. I was worried that he might return to his high strikeout ways. In 11 games split between a 6 game rehab stint in Dunedin and 5 games at Buffalo, Alford has a strikeout rate of 34%. He has swung and missed 18% at Dunedin and 15.7% at Buffalo. The sample sizes are small and still need time to stabilize, but the early results have not been good. Many fans are anxious to see the older players purged from the roster, but Alford's early season struggles show why patience is sometimes needed with youngsters. Alford may not yet be a finished product.
Alford's strikeout rate is a bit worrisome. He has enough skills elsewhere that he can still be a quality player with lots of strikeouts, but it definitely limits his offensive production. His lack of baseball experience and ability to adjust in the past bode well for his future, but I can't say I'm completely confident in his strikeout rate right now. Byron Buxton is an example of a player with a high strikeout rate who is still an impact player due to elite speed that allows for plus defence and base running. Buxton is the fastest player in baseball, so Alford may not be quite at the same level, but even 90% of Buxton's production would be a great outcome for Alford. If he can cut down on the strikeouts he could provide even more value than Buxton has so far. That would be amazing and for that reason I'm keeping a close eye on Alford's strikeout rate. It will likely determine his upside.
