Does Devon Travis Need To Be Optioned To The Minors?
The start of Randal Grichuk's Blue Jays career has not gone smoothly and he has been the target of a lot of criticism from Blue Jays fans. The criticism isn't entirely undeserved, but there is another player who is performing even worse, yet doesn't seem to endure the same scrutiny. Grichuk's 20 wrc+ is awful, but it's still better than the 1 put up by Devon Travis.
I believe part of the reason Travis isn't receiving the same kind of criticism as Grichuk is because we have seen Travis succeed. We know what Travis is capable and as fans we're willing to give him some leeway. He struggled last April as well and then became one of the team's better hitters in May. Grichuk doesn't have that same luxury. Even though he is also notoriously a slow starter, Grichuk hasn't had the chance to show Blue Jays fans what he looks like when he gets on a hot streak.
While both hitters likely won't be this bad all season long, it is actually Grichuk that has shown much more evidence that he can be a solid hitter this season. Right away you can look at Grichuk's .088 BABIP and see that he has been the victim of a lot of bad luck. Travis also has a low BABIP, but at .189 it's not nearly contributing as much to his poor performance.
Grichuk is walking at a career high 10.1%, while Travis is at a career low 3.4%. Grichuk's offseason pitch recognition training may actually be paying off because he is chasing pitches out of the zone way less than in previous seasons. Unfortunately, Grichuk is swinging and missing more than ever, so some of his plate discipline gains are being wasted. Travis' plate discipline appears mostly unchanged. He is, however, also swinging and missing more often. Travis' contact rate is 74.5%, down from 83% last year.
The biggest difference between Grichuk's slow start and Travis' is the quality of contact. Grichuk has been hitting the ball hard, but not getting results that would normally be expected from his batted ball profile. Grichuk's wOBA according to Baseball Savant is .197, but his expected wOBA is .337. The league average hitter has a .333 xwOBA. Grichuk has been a slightly above average hitter for his career and this year's quality of contact suggests he's still striking the ball like a slightly above average hitter. Travis, on the other hand, has an xwOBA of just .236. Yes, it's better than his actual wOBA of .170, but it's still a very poor number.
Travis is not walking very often, striking out a lot, and when he does make contact he isn't making very hard contact. There isn't anything he is doing well at the plate right now. He used to have an all-field approach, but is now pulling the ball more than ever. His line drive rate is a miserable 13.5% and he is hitting the ball on the ground a whopping 64.9%. He has been an underrated defender in his career, but even that has taken a step backwards this year. As a result of his across the board decline he has already accumulated -0.5 fWAR. Only 6 position players have been less valuable to their team.
Currently it wouldn't make a lot of sense to demote Travis. They aren't going to bring Ngoepe and there isn't another middle infielder on the 40 man roster to bring up. The team will probably wait to see if Travis can play his way out of this slump until Donaldson comes back. Once Donaldson returns the team will need to make a roster decision and that's probably when Travis could find himself on the hot seat. If he still isn't performing at that point the team could shift Solarte into full time second base duty and keep Gurriel on the roster in the same utility infielder role.
The best case scenario for the team would be for Travis to get hot and keep his starting job. When Donaldson returns they can shift Solarte into a utility role where he is most valuable. If Travis can't get things on track by the time Donaldson returns the best course of action may be to send him to the minors to work out of this funk. I believe part of the reason for the Gurriel promotion was not only to upgrade over Ngoepe but to give the team a chance to see what they had in him and if he could handle a significant role should Travis continue his poor play. Gurriel is currently looking like he may be more valuable to the team than Travis. It may be Solarte who takes over at second base, but it's Gurriel who Travis is fighting for a job with.
With Donaldson's return seemingly around the corner, it will be interesting to watch Travis and Gurriel play and see which one the team decides to demote when the time to make a roster decision comes. The Blue Jays should be a playoff contender this season, but the cracks are starting to show. As a team already on the fringes of playoff contention talent-wise they need to have the very best team on the field every night. Travis has come around after a slow start in the past, but time is running short for him to prove he is one of the 25 best players in this organization.
