The Grichuk Haters Are Probably Here To Stay
Randal Grichuk's Blue Jays debut has obviously not gone as planned. He has been a slow starter in each of his major league seasons, but none have been this bad. His .086/.206/.224 slash line is pretty much as bad as Luke Maile's .146/.176/.231 from a year ago. The same Luke Maile that many fans are now praising.
Grichuk can't be expected to continue hitting this poorly. He has a track record before this season that spans over 400 games where he put up an above average slash line of .249/.297/.488, good for a 108 wrc+.
Unfortunately, Grichuk has gotten off to such a poor start that even if he were to return to his career norm at the plate, his detractors will probably still find reason to dislike him. If Grichuk were to receive another 500 plate appearances this season and hit at the same rate as his career numbers prior to 2018 he would produce another 117 hits, 25 doubles 3 triples, 27 home runs and 32 walks. Adding that to what he has already don this season would bring his line up to .230/.285/.458. Despite being an above average hitter over the final 500 plate appearances of the season, his final numbers would still come up looking pretty weak.
With the Blue Jays current glut of outfielders it's unlikely Grichuk receives another 500 plate appearances. If he gets just another 400 chances to prove himself, the task of rebuilding his numbers becomes even more difficult. 400 plate appearances would get him 10 away from his career high set in 2016. An extra 400 plate appearances at his pre-2018 slash line would produce an extra 93 hits, 20 doubles, 3 triples, 21 home runs and 6 walks. His final slash line with those numbers factored in would be .227/.284/.451
None of those numbers would be enough to convince his haters that he can be a valuable player, despite the fact that if he did produce his career .249/.297/.488 slash line over the season's final 400 plate appearances it would mean he had been an above average hitter for nearly 6 times as many plate appearances as he has during his slump.
If Grichuk were to get his average above .260 then I could perhaps see some of his doubters be willing to admit that he can hit. If he were to see another 400 plate appearances that would require him hitting roughly .287 the rest of the way. A .287/.330/.548 slash line over the rest of the season would get him up to .260/.312/.505. A .817 OPS just might be enough to get some to admit he can hit, but that would require him hitting like Edwin Encarnacion for 5 months. His first month was so bad that it would take 5 months of monster production just to get him to a point where some fans would be willing to admit he doesn't suck. And even then I bet it would be a tough sell for some. Once someone hurts you, it's hard to forget.
Grichuk is still hittinng the ball hard. Based on his statcast data which tracks launch angles and exit velocity, his expected slugging percentage is .490, right in line with his career rate. He isn't going to continue running a .088 BABIP either. He has always had strikeout issues, this is something we all knew when he was acquired. He made a high strikeout rate work in the past, so we can't point to that as why he is struggling. Very little has changed in his overall hitting profile, aside from the results being ugly. He's still the same hitter he was when he was running a career 108 wrc+, he just needs his luck to turn. If the Blue Jays fans are willing to be patient they should eventually see a pretty good hitter in Grichuk.
The common comparison is that he's just another Colby Rasmus, as if that's a bad thing. Yeah, Rasmus is a strikoeut prone outfielder acquired from St. Louis. There are definitely similarities. Rasmus has also been worth 18.5 fWAR in 1082 career games. He hasn't been some scrub bust despite what some people would try to tell you. Rasmus has been a valuable contributor in his career, even if he didn't live up to the superstar hype. The expectations placed on Rasmus were very high and because he didn't live up to them he's often viewed as a bust. That couldn't be further from the truth.
Grichuk was never expected to be a star hitter. Based on his career so far, he should be expected to produce somewhere near league average hitting while being a plus defender in right and a fairly decent baserunner. The total package would be that of a quality, above average right fielder worth 2-3 fWAR. Grichuk likely had too high of exectations set for him by this fanbase and his dreadful start has only exacerbated the problem. It doesn't help that he's replacing a Blue Jays legend in Jose Bautista.
Grichuk can still salvage his season and be a productive player from this point forward. Unfortunately for him, it will likely be too little too late for some of the fans who are probably going to want him off the team no matter how he performs going forward. Unless he performs like vintage EE the rest of the way, his overall season numbers will look sub-par. He simply doesn't have the talent to hit like that, but he does have the talent to be a quality player. The Blue Jays have won despite of his poor start, so now it's time for Grichuk to take a mulligan, regroup, and do what he had done for 400+ games prior to this season.
