Cool Your Jets, Grichuk Will Be Fine
There's no denying it, Randal Grichuk has been bad so far this season. He has a team worst -0.4 fWAR and his -26 wrc+ makes Luke Maile's 2017 season look like vintage Babe Ruth. Ok, maybe not that bad, but still, bad.
And yet, it's only 10 games. Gary Sanchez has been even worse at the plate than Grichuk. Should Yankees fans be calling for his demotion? Absolutely not. Jose Ramirez finished 3rd in MVP voting last season and currently sports a -1 wrc+. Good players get off to horrible starts every season. Sometimes it's just something as simple as poor luck. He has had an ugly .048 BABIP. I highly doubt that's a number that will continue all season.
Grichuk's strikeout rate is much too high at 34.2%, but it's also not obscenely higher than his career rate of 30.1%. Even while striking out 30% of the time in his career he has managed to have a wrc+ 4% better than league average. He makes up for his high strikeout rate by being one of the better power hitters in baseball. Since 2015, Grichuk ranks 18th in baseball with a .243 ISO.
According to statcast data, based on Grichuk's exit velocity and launch angles his batted ball data suggests he's more deserving of a .496 slugging percentage, compared to the .147 he currently sports. His average exit velocity of 93.5 MPH ranks 27th out of 288 players with at least 10 at bats. He is crushing the ball, the results just haven't followed yet. If Grichuk were hitting soft groundballs I would be more concerned about his performance.
Another positive sign is that Grichuk isn't chasing balls out of the strike zone more than in previous seasons. In fact, his current O-zone% would be his lowest since his 47 game debut season in 2014. The biggest area of concern is his swinging strike rate. His current 18.8% would be much higher than his previous career high of 15.5%. It's still too early to come to any conclusions using these numbers, but it's worth keeping an eye on whether the swinging strike rate remains elevated. If he continues to whiff at such a high rate, it will be hard for his numbers to recover.
Right now, the only numbers that truly mean anything are the 400+ games in his career where he has been a slightly above average hitter. His defence in right field has been solid and the hitting should come around. As fans of the Blue Jays we owe Grichuk the benefit of the doubt based on a track record as an above average major leaguer. Yes, the results have been bad, but 10 games is not enough to draw any conclusions. I don't expect Grichuk to be a superstar at the plate, I expect him to be about average, maybe even slightly below average. With his defence and base running that's enough for him to be a positive contributor to this Blue Jays team. Do I expect him to play his way right out of the major leagues at age 26? Probably not.
