Are The Blue Jays Doing The Right Thing Keeping Teoscar Hernandez In The Minors?
When Teoscar Hernandez didn't make the team out of spring training many fans were left wondering what else he needed to do to prove he belongs in the majors. With the early season struggles of Randall Grichuk, Steve Pearce and Kendrys Morales many fans are even more confused as to why Teoscar is not with the big club. After producing a .908 OPS last September, Teoscar continued hitting this spring with a 1.084 OPS. Yes, the results have been nice, but they also come with red flags that could be detrimental to his success in the majors.
The most obvious flaw is his strikeout rate. If fans are wary about Randall Grichuk's strikeout issues, they are kidding themselves if they think Teoscar couldn't also see a similar cold streak. Hernandez struck out at a 37.9% rate last year in the majors. That would have led all of baseball had he played enough to qualify. This spring he showed minimal improvement in that area with a 29.8% strikeout rate. It's a step in the right direction, but still a number that could hinder his success.
He had a 16.6% swinging strike rate in the majors last year. Last season in AAA Buffalo he had a swinging strike rate of 16.4% so even against a lower level of pitching there was a lot of swing and miss in his game. He had a better 13.0% swinging strike rate earlier in the season when he was still with the Astros. There was a noticeable difference in his flyball rates between the two AAA stops and it appears that the Blue Jays may have encouraged him to trade flyballs for a bit of swing and miss. He was one of the most extreme flyball hitters during his time in the majors last season and that's probably what led to his power breakout.
The other issue that could be problematic for Hernandez is his low walk rate. He walked in just 6.3% of his plate appearances in the majors last season and was at just 5.3% in the spring. Most power hitters with high strikeout rates offset some of the lost production with a high walk rate. With so much swing and miss and so little patience, it wouldn't be difficult for major league pitchers to expose Teoscar.
History has not been kind to hitters who strike out so often and walk so little. There has only been one player in history with a career strikeout rate over 30% and walk rate below 9% that was able to maintain a career batting line above average. Interesting tidbit, among guys with strikeout rates above 30% and walks below 9% the best career wrc+ is Bo Jackson at 111. The next highest is exactly league average at 100 and it is former Blue Jays future "superstar" Juan Francisco. I remember getting excited about him. History is solidly against players with this profile. I do think it is worth mentioning that strikeouts are up quite a bit and the odds are better now that a player can succeed striking out so often. Still, it's an uphill battle.
I also think it is worth noting that nearly the entirety of Teoscar Hernandez's success last season came during a 6 game stretch. In the 18 games prior to the September 22nd contest, Hernandez had a .734 OPS. He went on to hit 6 home runs in 6 days and his final numbers ended up looking much better. This spring Teoscar did most of his damage against a low quality of opponent. His QOPA of 6.6 suggests he was facing pitchers that were more of AA calibre than major league quality. I believe it is wise of the Blue Jays front office to not rush a player with a major flaw based on a hot 6 game stretch and a spring training where he feasted on low quality pitchers and had a .455 BABIP.
To most fans they see a player who dominated in 26 major league games last season, then came into spring training and continued to mash. What may be news to many is that in between those stellar performances he spent time playing winter ball in the Dominican. He hit just .195/.271/.287 in 22 winter ball games. Granted, that data is not nearly as valuable as numbers put up in the majors or minor leagues, but it still happened. What it shows us is that Teoscar is not some sure-fire offensive talent. He is just as susceptible to slumps as a player with a similar hitting profile, like Randall Grichuk.
There are some that want to see Hernandez displace Steve Pearce as Curtis Granderson's platoon partner. Teoscar is a right handed hitter and is far superior defensively compared to Pearce, so the decision seems obvious. Not so fast. Remember how good Teoscar was last season? He had a 132 wrc+, an excellent number. In Steve Pearce's career, he has a 126 wrc+ against left-handed pitching. As good as Hernandez was last season in 26 games is essentially how good Steve Pearce has been during an entire career against lefties. But there's more! Against left handed pitching last season, Hernandez produced a pitiful 54 wrc+. This also wasn't a one-off thing. During his minor league career he has had fairly large reverse platoon splits and has struggled against left handed pitching. Using him as the short end of a platoon to face left-handers, simply because he's a right handed bat, is possibly the worst thing the Jays could do. Not to mention how bad it would be for his development to have irregular playing time. Good luck fixing that strikeout issue playing twice a week, Teoscar!
This may seem like I have a very pessimistic view of Hernandez's potential, but that's not the case. Teoscar ranked 8th in baseball last year for expected wOBA on balls in play. This means that when he does make contact he's elite. He ranked just ahead of Giancarlo Stanton. When he makes contact, he crushes the ball with the best of them. If Teoscar figures out his strikeout issue we have a monster. Right now he compares similarly to Joey Gallo, except without the walks. Gallo hits the ball even harder than Teoscar and walks at nearly twice the rate and still was just a123 wrc+ player. That's nothing to scoff at, but it's also not elite. Without the walks, Teoscar would probably be lucky to produce a 110 wrc+ without some serious batted ball luck like he enjoyed last September. If you're curious about what I mean by his batted ball luck then read this article I wrote about him during the offseason.
The Depth Charts projections at Fangraphs see him producing just a 88 wrc+. That's 1 point lower than the projection for Kevin Pillar. It may seem crazy to some, but remember, the projections only care about the numbers and won't be swayed significantly by a hot 6 game stretch in the same way a human can be. Personally, I feel the projection is light because the numbers probably aren't aware of his recent switch to being an extreme flyball hitter and the power surge that could result. However, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that he could produce a wrc+ below 100 and be a below average hitter. High strikeouts and low walks are a recipe for failure. If Teoscar can prove that the strikeout issue won't keep him from being a productive bat, he has the potential to be a huge call-up for the Jays. A heart of the order that includes Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak and Teoscar Hernandez has the potential to be one of the best in the game.
Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays to win the 2nd wild card, and that projection includes very little playing time for Hernandez and, when he does play, it sees him hitting like Kevin Pillar. I think Hernandez should, at the very least, hit better than Pillar. Beyond that, he has the potential to be a powerful middle-of-the-order bat. The range of outcomes for Hernandez is massive. I wouldn't be surprised by a 95 wrc+ and I wouldn't be surprised to see 130.
I am hopeful that Hernandez can become a great hitter, but I am also tempering my expectations. He has tremendous power, but a major swing and miss flaw could render that skill useless more often than not. I enjoy players like Teoscar because they force me to reassess my ideas about how I analyze players. He is someone definitely worth keeping an eye on early in the minor league season. He could have a huge impact on this team in 2018 and beyond. I don't think it's worth hindering his development in order to rush him to the majors based on 6 games last September when he does have a major flaw that often gets exposed by pitchers at the highest level. I believe the Blue Jays are handling the situation with Hernandez properly and putting him in a position where he can work on his flaws without the pressures of producing in the majors. Players with his type of power don't come along very often and it would be a shame to see him fail to reach his potential due to ignoring his flaws.
