Let's Get Excited About Aaron Sanchez
I'm sure many people are already excited about Aaron Sanchez, but it may be time to get really excited about Aaron Sanchez. He already has an AL ERA title under his belt, but it always seemed like he was capable of even more. Despite leading the league with a 3.00 ERA in 2016, there was still room for improvement. His 3.55 FIP, 3.75 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA all suggested that his 3.00 ERA would likely be his peak, unless he were to make improvements. With his strikeout, walk and groundball rates he was looking more like a mid-3s ERA type of pitcher, rather than the lights out ace that his stuff suggests he's capable of being.
Despite a mid-90s fastball and knee buckling curveball, Sanchez struggled to generate a lot of swing and miss. He found most of his success by generating weak contact and lots of groundballs. This is definitely a recipe for success if the pitcher can also limit walks. Sanchez has been making it work very well, as has teammate Marcus Stroman. However, true aces rack up strikeouts. Of the top 30 pitchers in fWAR last season, only 2 had a K/9 below 8.4. Only 9 of the top 30 qualified starters in ERA had a strikeout % lower than 20%. Sanchez's career K/9 is 6.95 and his K% is 18.7%.If he wants to join the upper echelon of pitchers, those numbers have to improve. He currently lacks a true strikeout pitch that he can turn to in order to get whiffs.
A comp that Sanchez often had early in his career was Justin Verlander. Both are big, power righties. Verlander had a similar issue to Sanchez early in his career. He was effective at limiting runs, but his strikeout numbers lagged behind his stuff. Then in 2009 he began generating swings and misses with his changeup and slider and became the ace we know and love.
We're still early in the season, but Sanchez has been generating a lot of swings and misses with his changeup. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs recently wrote an excellent piece on Sanchez's seemingly improved changeup. Definitely give it a read if you haven't already. Sullivan digs into the numbers and why Sanchez's new changeup could be the missing piece for him.
I have been waiting for Sanchez to start striking more guys out. I tweeted my excitement about Sanchez's changeup during his first game of the season, so it was very encouraging to read Sullivan's article confirming that the numbers seem to support that the pitch is in fact improved this year. If Sanchez now has a strikeout pitch he should become a beast.
So far, the strikeout numbers for Sanchez aren't up, but, if he has a pitch that can generate close to 20% swinging strikes, he should see his K% rise. His changeup has been great at generating groundballs in the past. If it is now also a pitch he can go to in order to strike batters out from both sides of the plate, he has one of the most dangerous weapons in baseball. Also, if his changeup becomes a feared strikeout pitch, it could also make his curveball play up. If batters are worried about his change, he can toss them a knee buckling curve. If his curve then starts generating more strikeouts we have a legitimate ace on our hands.
Sanchez has already been a very good pitcher so far in his career. If he can be as good as he has been without the huge strikeout numbers, just imagine what he would be if he can get batters to put the ball in play less often. I was excited watching him in his first game thinking he may have finally found a strikeout pitch. I was even more excited to read one of the game's best writers break down why it might be here to stay. Seriously, go read the article and get excited with me.
