Keeping The Faith
The Blue Jays are not off to the start we were hoping for. The pitching has been fine, but the hitting has come out of the gate limp. With memories of last year's disastrous start still fresh in our minds, it's hard not to blame people if they start to get nervous. However, this year should be different than last.
The front office focussed on building the team's depth this offseason and they did a fine job of it. There are 9 new players on the opening day roster. The position players are an obvious upgrade over the guy they replaced.
Solarte > Goins
Diaz > Tulo (2017 version)
Granderson > Carrera
Grichuk > Bautista (2017 version)
Ngoepe > Barney
This comparison is a bit wonky because of Tulo's injury. Technically he's still with the team. If Tulo comes back healthy he's an upgrade over himself and Diaz becomes an upgrade over Barney.
Whichever way you slice it, the lineup is clearly better than the one from last year that finished last in the league in runs. Not to mention there are some excellent reinforcements in the minors should the offensive woes continue. If Teoscar Hernandez truly is the real deal the Jays will be able to add a middle-of-the-order bat at some point. A heart of the order consisting of Donaldson, Smoak and Hernandez would look really good. First, Hernandez needs to prove that his strikeout rate won't be a problem, but that's a story for another day.
Then there is Jaime Garcia, who is an upgrade over Francisco Liriano. Rotation depth was an obvious problem from day one last year and the team is in a much better place in that area this year. As much as Biaigini has struggled as a starter so far, there is reason for hope that he can be a quality starter. Then there's the group of prospects in Ryan Borucki, Taylor Guerrieri, and Deck McGuire. The 2017 Blue Jays didn't have the luxury of turning to a prospect with potential upside. If they're forced to hand 5 spot starts to Borucki, could they turn out like the 5 given to Mike Bolsinger last year? For sure. If they have to count on 3 games from Guerrieri could they be disasters like Cesar Valdez? Absolutely. But what the young players offer that those guys don't is significant upside. There is a better chance that one of Borucki or Guerrieri, or even McGuire could turn into a quality starter than with Bolsinger, Valdez, Lawrence, Tepesch, etc.
The only area where the team didn't make obvious upgrades is the bullpen. Gone are Dominic Leone and Joe Smith and they have been replaced with the likes of Seung Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard and John Axford. Even without major upgrades in the bullpen, it can be argued that the relief corps is in similar shape as it was at this point last year. Remember, they opened with Jason Grilli and J.P. Howell in the pen. It wouldn't be surprising to see the trio of Oh, Clippard and Axford get similar or better results than the veteran trio of Smith, Grilli and Howell that they started with last year. This year's bullpen also has some solid reinforcements that could make it a better group than last year's group that ranked 7th in fWAR. Part of the reason last year's bullpen accumulated so much fWAR was because of the rotation that ranked 6th last in innings. This year's rotation should be capable of providing more innings and getting rest for the pen.
The point of building depth wasn't for the first 2 games. They built the depth so they would be better equipped to handle 162 games. Yes, the early results aren't promising, but they also came against two of the best pitchers in the world. That won't be the last time this year that Severino and Tanaka make teams look hopeless. If the Blue Jays continue to struggle badly into their series with the White Sox and then James Shields limits them to 2 hits and 12 strikeouts, then I might start to worry a little.
The Toronto Blue Jays 2018 playoff hopes were always built like a house of cards that could come crashing down at any time. They need their stars to stay healthy if they hope to have a chance. This makes Donaldson's dead arm extra concerning. If Donaldson, Stroman, and Sanchez can stay in the roster and play up to their abilities, the rest of the roster needs only be average for the team to contend for a playoff spot. Based on the careers of the players on this team that seems like a reasonable expectation. A breakout here, or there and the team could even weather an injury to one of their stars. It may seem risky to rely on your stars this heavily, but you can also say the same thing about the other potential wild card contenders. If Mike Trout gets injured, or Garrett Richards misses significant time what does the Angels playoff hopes look like? If Byron Buxton or Brian Dozier miss large chunks of time are the Twins in a position to replace them with quality players? The Blue Jays are actually set up better to deal with injuries than either of those teams.
The strength of this team is their depth. That isn't going to show itself in 2 games.
