Blue Jays Are Right To Develop Joe Biagini As A Starter
One of the bigger debates surrounding the Jays this offseason was whether Joe Biagini should be a starter or a reliever. The team is going to try him as a starter and I believe this is a wise move. Yes, he struggled as a starter last season, but he also wasn't given a fair shot at the job. He was thrown into the rotation part way through the season without a chance to build up stamina for the role.
This spring the team has allowed him to build up his pitch count properly. His 5.09 ERA this spring has given his detractors plenty of ammunition, however, there is still reason for optimism. Despite the elevated ERA, Biagini has done well with his peripheral stats. He has struck out 25 in 23 innings, walking 7. The reason behind the 5.09 ERA is the 5 home runs he allowed. As a groundball pitcher, it's easy to bet against him continuing to allow 2.0 HR/9 during the regular season.
Biagini's 2017 ERA was 5.73 as a starter, but the peripheral numbers suggest he suffered his fair share of bad luck. His FIP of 4.36 and xFIP of 4.23 were both better than the league average for starting pitchers. His strikeout, walk and groundball numbers suggest Biagini is capable of being a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. The main culprit behind his bloated ERA as a starter is his 59.2 LOB%. Biagini had trouble stranding runners when they reached base, but this is something that is less within his control and will usually regress to the mean.
Biagini also suffered some bad luck on balls in play. On balls put in play he allowed a .386 wOBA, but according to statcast data his xwOBA (expected wOBA) was much lower at .337. The wide gap between the two numbers suggests he deserved better results. He had a .327 xwOBA vs an actual wOBA of .320 as a reliever which further supports the idea that he was bit by bad luck as a starter.
When you include his strikeouts and walks he has an xwOBA of .305 which falls right between Stroman's .313 and Happ's .288. Biagini was not giving up a lot of good contact, but the results didn't bear that out. More often than not, the results tend to catch up over the long term.
Another promising sign is that Biagini didn't show significant decline due to facing players multiple times. His FIP was actually strongest the third time through the order. This is a possible indication that he has the stamina needed to be a starter. I would be less confident in his ability to start if he showed obvious signs of decline the deeper he went in games.
Also working in Biagini's favor is his 4 pitch mix. His four seamer doesn't produce a lot of whiffs, but it does generate plenty of groundballs. His curveball rated as an average pitch last year. He started throwing the pitch for more strikes last year, which likely accounts for most of the increased success with the pitch. His best pitch last year was his changeup. Among 127 pitchers who threw a changeup and pitched at least 100 innings, Biagini's changeup ranked as the 33rd most valuable per pitch. The culprit for his struggles last year appears to be a drastic drop in the quality of his cutter. His chase rate with the pitch dropped from 48.2% to 28.8%. After generating swinging strikes on 21.9% of his cutters in 2016, he managed a miserly 4.8%. If he can't figure out what went wrong with his cutter last season he may be forced to drop the pitch and stick with his four seamer, curveball and changeup. Biagini's cutter and four seam were above average pitches in 2016 so a return to form with those pitches would very good.
The Blue Jays lack trustworthy starters behind their current rotation of Happ, Sanchez, Estrada, Stroman and Garcia so it's worth trying to see if Biagini can overcome last year's struggles. Taylor Guerrieri, Ryan Borucki,and Deck McGuire still need to prove themselves in the upper minors, so Biagini is currently the best option to fill-in should somebody go down with injury early in the season.
Many think that Biagini is better suited in the bullpen, and while his numbers have been better out of the pen, they aren't exactly irreplaceable. For the team's benefit, he is more valuable if he can make it work as a starter. Should he be passed in the rotation depth chart the team can then shift him back to the bullpen.
There is plenty of statistical evidence that points to last year having more to do with bad luck than a lack of skills. He probably isn't going to repeat a 59.2 LOB%. If he finds his cutter again it would be a major plus and would drastically improve his odds of being a successful starter. Even without the pitch he has three god pitches and the skills to stick in the rotation. There is no guarantee that he will be able to figure out what plagued him as a starter last year, but it's worth exploring, especially considering the team's lack of rotation depth.
