2018 Toronto Blue Jays Bold Predictions
Anybody who has watched baseball long enough knows that anything can happen. Here are my bold predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2018
1: Steve Pearce flourishes as the right handed side of the left field platoon and mashes lefties to the tune of .270/.360/.500.
Pearce struggled against lefties in 2017 relative to his career norms and managed just a .207/.293/.437 line. His strikeout and walk numbers against southpaws took a step backwards, but his power was as good as ever. He won't repeat 2017's .217 BABIP against left handers and should be a solid contributor as the short half of the left field platoon.
2: Devon Travis finishes in the top 10 for fWAR among second basemen
Travis has been excellent when healthy enough to take the field. For his career he has averaged 3.8 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. He isn't likely to reach 600 plate appearances, but if he can reach 500 plate appearances and play to his career averages he would be worth 3.2 fWAR. That number would have been good enough to tie him with Robinson Cano for 9th last season among second basemen.
3. Roberto Osuna has an ERA under 2.00
Osuna struggled at times last season, but the peripheral numbers suggest he is in for much better seasons. Osuna ranked 3rd among all relievers with a 9.22 K/BB and his 1.74 FIP also ranked 3rd. He kept the ball on the ground much more in 2017 and that bodes well for his ability to avoid home runs. Osuna is one of the best young relievers of all-time and 2018 will be the year that he really breaks out and shows what he is capable of.
4: Joe Biagini makes 15+ starts and has an ERA that is around league average for a starter.
Biagini struggled mightily as a starter in 2017. He was thrust into the role without proper preparation. Despite the ugly final results, there are signs for optimism. He had a 4.36 FIP and 4.23 xFIP, both of which were better than average for a starting pitcher. His xwOBA as a starter was .305 and actually better than Marcus Stroman's .313. The odds of Biagini repeating last year's 59.2 LOB% is highly unlikely. Biagini's spring numbers don't look very good on the surface, with a 6.50 ERA giving fans flashbacks of last year's struggles. However, he has had a quite good 19/6 K/BB ratio and most of the damage against him has been due to an elevated home run rate. He is getting plenty of groundballs, so the home runs are likely just a small sample fluke. With better luck on contact and stranding runners, Biagini should be able to serve as a capable fill-in for the Blue Jays rotation.
5: Aaron Loup has an ERA under 3.00
I stuck by Loup during his down 2015 and 2016 seasons due to his solid peripheral numbers. He rewarded my devotion last season by producing a better than average 3.75 ERA. That ERA was actually better compared to the rest of the league than his 3.15 ERA in 2014 due to the increase in runs across the league. Statcast data suggests he pitched even better than his ERA suggests. His xwOBA was excellent at .285 and much lower than his actual wOBA of .323. He hasn't walked a batter yet in spring training. If he can return to his walk limiting ways while maintaining his ability to limit damage on contact he should be successful again in 2018.
