A Healthy Devon Travis Could Be Big For The Blue Jays In 2018
2018 is a year where the Blue Jays have a shot at the wild card and they will need more things to go right for them than go wrong. One of the things that would go a long way in making the Blue Jays contenders is a healthy season from Devon Travis.
Travis has suffered from a number of injuries in his short career and has been tagged with the label "injury prone". While some of the injuries could be considered flukes, he has also had a recurring knee issue that would be concerning if it were to become chronic. The latest word from the player himself is that he is healthy and hasn't suffered any setbacks, so until he proves otherwise it is best to take his word for it.
Since making his MLB debut in 2015 Travis has averaged 3.81 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. That number ranks him 5th among all major league second basemen, behind only Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy and Jose Ramirez. Elite company. When Travis is on the field he is one of the very best second basemen in the game. Unfortunately, in those 3 seasons he has made only 867 trips to the plate. He is about 1000 plate appearances short of what you would hope to have from a player 3 years into their big league career. The significant time missed may have hindered his development and his bat has taken a step back since his excellent 2015 debut.
Travis regularly put up walk rates above 7% in the minors and during his rookie season, but has seen that number drop all the way down to Kevin Pillar territory at 3.6%. Part of the reason may be that he is putting the ball in play more often early in the count. 13.8% of his plate appearances went to 3 ball counts last year compared to 15.9% as a rookie. 29% of his plate appearances lasted 2 or fewer pitches vs. 25.5% in 2015. He saw a career low 3.79 pitches per plate appearance in 2017, down from 4.00 the year before. This may be a result of Travis pressing and feeling the need to prove himself after missing so much time. If Travis is willing to trust his skills and go deeper into counts he may draw more walks and also get better pitches to hit.
Travis' chase rate was actually the lowest of his career last season. If he continues to let balls out of the zone go by at the same rate as last year we should see his walk rate rise. For him to be an offensive threat it's important that he gets that walk rate back up to previous levels.
Statcast was a fan of his last year and had his xwOBA at .338 compared to his actual .311 wOBA. If he can get his numbers closer to his xwOBA expect to see a batting line closer to what he did in 2016 when he hit .300/.332/.454 and had a .341 wOBA.
An underrated part of Travis' game is his defence. He won't be vying for the Gold Glove any time soon but he has quietly put up above average defensive seasons each year in the majors. He makes more errors than the average second baseman and it's the errors that tend to stick in people's minds, but he takes away more bases than he gives up in errors due to his above average range. He moves well laterally and is good at turning double plays.
So far this spring training Travis has hit .269/.321/.500. It's is quite encouraging that he has struck out only once in 28 plate appearances. He already makes contact at a rate higher than the league average, so if he can further improve his strikeout rate he could become one of the top hitting second basemen in the game. A season with a .290+ AVG, 20 home runs and 35 doubles isn't out of the question. A more modest expectation is something in the range of a .280 AVG, ~15 HR and 30 doubles. Those numbers, along with steady defence, would give the Blue Jays one of the game's better second basemen.
The recent news that Troy Tulowitzki is going to start the season on the DL makes it even more important that Travis can be healthy and productive. The front office added middle infield depth, but with Tulo out, a Travis injury would push the depth to it's limits and one more injury could mean trouble for the team.
Travis has a long track record of being a great hitter that dates back to college. As long as there aren't any lingering health issues, Travis should be ready to contribute in 2018 and return to the form that led to him being one of the game's most productive at the keystone. He doesn't need to be elite to help the Jays reach the postseason, but if he can stay on the field there's no reason to believe he won't be productive and add wins to the team's total.
