If John Axford Makes The Roster, Who Comes Off The 40 Man?
In an article by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet he shares some quotes by John Gibbons that indicate John Axford is likely to make the 25 man roster out of spring training. About Axford, Gibbons says "I’ve seen everything to this point that I need to see" and adds "He should be pitching in the big-leagues, no doubt." Now, this is merely a statement that Gibbons sees Axford as a MLB quality arm and isn't an outright acknowledgment that he has made the team. However, it's a strong remark about Axford that means he likely makes the team unless something changes between now and March 29th.
Axford was a non roster invite to spring training and with the 40 man roster full it means somebody will have to be taken off in order to make room for Axford. The Blue Jays have a number of candidates that they could remove from the roster, but the chances of slipping them through waivers and keeping them in the team's system may be slim.
Among the pitchers on the 40 man roster that could be removed, the most likely candidate is Matt Dermody. Dermody has had inconsistent results in the minors and his spring results were not very good as well. He was never a top prospect and wasn't taken until the 28th round of the 2013 draft so he isn't likely high on a lot of team's priority lists to acquire. With that said, he is a big left hander with solid control and most teams are willing to make room on their roster and take a chance on a player with that profile. Also, his 2017 MLB numbers are skewed by a horrendous outing in April where he allowed 5 runs and only recorded a single out. When he returned to the majors at the end of July he produced a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings. He would likely be taken if put on waivers and I doubt the Jays front office wants to risk losing a potentially solid lefty reliever when that's already an area of concern.
Thomas Pannone could be the other possibility among pitchers who could be removed. He had a poor spring training and profiles as a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. He was acquired a part of the Joe Smith trade last season so he obviously has some value and his worth hasn't changed much just because of a few bad spring outings. The Blue Jays have depth questions with their rotation and probably want to hang onto as many upper minor league starting pitchers as possible.
In the infield the only real possibility is Rowdy Tellez. Tellez had a disastrous 2017 season at AAA. He has a .222 AVG and only 6 home runs in 501 plate appearances. His strikeout and walk rates remained the same. A very low .264 BABIP was a factor in his poor numbers, but the real concern was his power outage. He also had an extreme platoon split that saw him bat just .146 against left handed pitching. 2016 saw him breakout in the power department and he was #95 on Baseball America's top prospect list heading into 2017. There is a good chance that a team will be intrigued enough by his strikeout/walk numbers and his past as a top prospect to give him a 40 man roster spot.
In the outfield it's Dalton Pompey and Dwight Smith Jr. who find themselves at the bottom of the pecking order. Pompey has more of a prospect pedigree than Smith Jr. and ranked 30th on Baseball America's top prospect list heading into 2015. Pompey has game changing speed as he showed in the 2015 playoffs. Pompey's speed also helps make him a plus fielder. He has been injury prone his entire professional career, but the talent is there when he's on the field. He's the type of talent that a team could regret giving up in a few years if he ever manages to stay on the field.
Dwight Smith Jr. doesn't have a standout tool, but he is solid across the board. His ceiling isn't very high because of his lack of plus tools. However, he has performed consistently all the way up the minor league ladder and is the type of player a rebuilding team might like to give some playing time to and see if he can stick in the majors. He could be a nice fourth outfielder or if he maximizes his potential he could carve out a nice career as an average starting outfielder.
The other possibility is that Troy Tulowitzki starts the season on the 60 day DL. This would be the least ideal situation because it would mean the team's infield depth would immediately be tested . Hopefully Tulo is only out for a short time and the Blue Jays can slip a player through waivers. The other possibility is that a trade opens up a roster spot. Aside from slipping a player through waivers unclaimed, this would be the ideal solution to the roster crunch.
There is still 2 weeks before the season starts so a lot could change, but the front office will be tasked with a tough decision when it comes time to finalize the 25 man roster on opening day and making room on the 40 man roster.
