Who Should Be The Blue Jays Opening Day Starter?
With today's announcement that Marcus Stroman will not be ready for the Jays' opening day game against the Yankees on March 29th, it has created the question of who will start the first game of the year for Toronto. John Gibbons has said any of the Blue Jays starters are possibilities. Ultimately these types of decisions make little difference to a team's season and it's viewed more as an honor for the player who gets handed the ball as a way to recognize their strong performance for the team in the past.
Jaime Garcia can be stricken from the list right away, because he's a new acquisition and it would be pretty odd to give him the honor of kicking off the team's season. Aside from the fact that he hasn't thrown a regular season pitch for the Jays, he is a lefty and may not be the best option against the right handed mashers in the Yankees lineup.
Marco Estrada has been a Blue Jay long enough to earn the honor. He has come through in big games for the team in the past, and he is a fan favorite. Estrada performed well as the opening day starter last season, going 6 innings and given up just a pair of runs. The biggest issue with Estrada is his flyball tendencies. Estrada gave up 31 home runs last season which ranked tied for the 10th most in baseball. If the Blue Jays want to make a good first impression in 2018 it may not be wise to send Estrada out there with the risk of multiple home runs being given up against a lethal Yankees lineup. Estrada went 3-1 in 5 starts against the Yankees last year, but his 4.60 ERA was less than ideal.
Aaron Sanchez has ace potential and could end up pitching on many opening days in his career. In a match-up against the Yankees Sanchez may be the most ideal pitcher the Blue Jays have. He generates a lot of groundballs with his heavy sinker and would be less prone to home runs as a result. The Yankees are expected to hit a lot of home runs this year so it would be good to have someone who can stifle their biggest offensive weapon. Team splits aren't really a relevant stat, but for what it's worth, Sanchez has a career 2.40 ERA against the Yankees. The argument against starting Sanchez is that he already faces a lot of pressure this season after missing so much of last year with blister issues. Sanchez is likely already feeling a lot of pressure to perform and having him start on opening day would only add to the pressure.
J.A. Happ probably has the inside track on the opening day job. He was a 20 game winner for the 2016 Blue Jays team that went to the playoffs and he has been one of the team's most consistent starting pitchers. As a left hander there is some concern about sending him out against the right handed heart of the Yankees order. However, Happ doesn't give up an obscene amount of home runs to right handed bats and he had a career low flyball rate last season. Handing the ball to Happ on opening day would be a nice way to honor him for what he has done for the team recently. He is heading into the final year of his contract and it doesn't hurt to generate some extra goodwill and show him what an important part of this team he is.
The opening day starter won't make or break the season, but this home opener will be important from an optics standpoint. After last season's disappointment it's important for the team to make a good first impression in 2018. The home opener still isn't sold out so excitement for the Jays isn't nearly as high as it was last season. A strong opening day performance would at least help fans get a little bit more excited. It's not like a win on opening day is going to cause a massive surge in ticket sales, but every little bit helps. For a team looking to gain trust from a skeptical fan base, a win against the dreaded Yankees on opening day would be a good start.
