Toronto Blue Jays Sign Seung Hwan Oh
The Toronto Blue Jays added to their bullpen by snagging Seung Hwan Oh. The Korean born 35 year old reliever came to Major League Baseball in 2016 after dominating in both Korea and Japan. Oh has perhaps the coolest nickname in baseball: "Final Boss". This nickname stems from him being perhaps the most dominant closer in KBO history. Oh's contract guarantees $2MM and has a vesting option for 2019. The deal was first reported by Robert Murray of Fan Rag Sports. A deal with the Rangers reportedly fell through due to issues that came up in the MRI.
Oh's first season in MLB was simply dominant. He had a 1.92 ERA and struck out 11.64 batters per 9 innings. That K/9 was good for 15th in all of baseball among relievers and his ERA ranked 9th. His 2.6 fWAR was the 5th best among all MLB relievers.
2017 was a completely different story. His flyball percentage went from 40.5% to 49.5% and a higher percentage of those flyballs also left the park. As a result, his HR/9 rate went through the roof, going from 0.56 in 2016 to 1.52 in 2017. Not only that, his strikeout rate went from 15th in baseball at 11.64 all the way down to a below average 8.19. With fewer strikeouts and more home runs allowed he saw his ERA rise to 4.10. His FIP was even worse at 4.44 and his xFIP was a ghastly 5.04. His total production was barely above replacement level and he provided just 0.1 fWAR.
Oh's pitch mix was almost identical between 2016 and 2017 and his fastball velocity increased 0.1 MPH. His chase rate, both in the zone and out of the zone remained stable. The only real difference is the amount of contact hitters made. He went from 5th among relievers with a 18.0 swinging strike percentage to 12.9% last year. 12.9% is still above the league average for relievers (11.6%) which could bode well for a bit of a bounce back for Oh in the strikeout department. However, if he wants to be truly dominant like in 2016 he will have to find a way to generate more swings and misses or get the ball on the ground more often.
On a per pitch basis Oh's curveball was the worst among all MLB relievers who pitched at least 40 innings, and it wasn't even close. Oh's -8.84 wCB/c was 4 runs worse than the next lowest total. Oh's splitfinger also ranked as the worst among relievers at -7.07. Those two pitches combined for only about 9% of his total pitches thrown, so they can't explain all of his 2017 struggles, but when he did throw them the results were ugly. Oh's slider ranked below average, but not terribly so. Oh's fastball still ranks quite well at 43rd out of 192 relievers. This is in stark contrast to 2016 when all 4 of Oh's pitches were rated above average. Unless Oh can get his curve and splitter working again, he may be best as a strictly fastball/slider pitcher going forward.
Oh had quite a large gap between his wOBA and xwOBA (.298-.338), meaning he may have suffered some poor luck on contact. His .298 xwOBA would have produced much better results. Brian Duensing produced a .298 wOBA and had a 2.74 ERA. Jerry Blevins had a .299 wOBA and a 2.94 ERA. If Oh can get results more in line with the quality of contact he is giving up then we should see an ERA closer to 3, rather than the 4.10 we saw last year.
Realistically, the sub-2 ERA version of Oh is likely gone, but there are some positive signs that he can still be an effective reliever. Oh doesn't have to dominate for this deal to pay off. He is making less than what the Jays paid J.P. Howell last year. Simply seeing his results fall in line with his wOBA would make him a bargain at $2MM. The failed deal with the Rangers and his poor 2017 are both red flags, but since the Blue Jays have a bunch of young relievers with options, this deal and the potential upside it brings is a risk very much worth taking.
The Blue Jays will need to clear a spot on their 40 man roster. The top 2 candidates to be designated for assignment are Gift Ngoepe and Ezequiel Carrera. There is probably a good chance that Ngoepe could be slipped through waivers without being picked up. If the Blue Jays front office doesn't want to risk losing Ngoepe as middle infield depth they could afford to let Carrera go, seeing as how they have a logjam in the outfield. If a team claims Carrera, his $1.8MM salary coming off the books would almost completely offset the money owed to Oh. The Jays would likely be able to work out a trade for Carrera if they were to DFA him, due to his low salary and strong 2017. He wouldn't bring in much, but a low level prospect for a 4th outfielder would be fair. There is also the possibility that Carrera and other pieces could be used to bring in another reliever in a trade.
Hopefully the Jays can add one more reliable arm to the bullpen before the season starts, preferably a lefty. With some of the large deals handed out to relievers this offseason, the Blue Jays appear wise to have waited out the market.
