Francisco Liriano Can Still Get Left Handed Batters Out
Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins recently said there is about a 90% chance they will bring in a relief pitcher. Given the amount of young players currently in the bullpen and the uncertainty that comes with young arms, it's probably a good idea to add veteran reinforcements. The Blue Jays are in a very fortunate position when it comes to adding depth to their bullpen because they have a lot of players with options remaining. Adding a veteran to the pen lowers the amount of risk surrounding the bullpen and allows a reliever to spend more time getting polished in the minors. The options allow them to shift players in and out of the major league bullpen based on who is performing or needs rest.
One name that is still on the market and could make sense is Francisco Liriano. With Aaron Loup as the only left hander locked into a job, it makes sense for the team to add another lefty. Loup does not dominate left handers, so they would be wise to focus on getting someone who does.
Liriano held left handed hitters to a .286 wOBA last season. For his career he has held them to .273 vs. .321 against right handed hitters. His career FIP against same handed batters is 2.84 compared to 4.02 against righties. Last season that gap was even more pronounced: 2.75 vs. 5.28. He has declined significantly against right handed batters but continues to get guys out from the left side.
Walks have been a problem for Liriano throughout his career, but last year against lefties he walked only 5% of them. For his career he has walked 8.1% of left handed batters which is similar to last year's AL average of 7.9% for left handed pitchers against left handed hitters.
Lefty bats have a very hard time getting the ball in the air against Liriano. For his career he has held them to a 59.5% groundball rate. That has led to only 0.44 HR/9. Last year he held left handed bats to just 0.37 HR/9. Having a weapon that can keep left handed hitters in the ballpark is important for the Jays.
If the team were to rely on Matt Dermody or Tim Mayza as their LOOGY they would be taking a risk that could leave them without a reliable pitcher to get out lefty bats. Yes, Dermody and Mayza have shown promise that they can get outs, but the team would be putting a lot of faith in a couple of young players without a solid plan B. The safer move would be to use the young players as the plan B. If a veteran like Liriano comes in and gets the job done, great! We save some service time for a couple young arms and get similar production to what they were likely to produce. If Liriano fails to produce, he will be on a cheap one year contract and easy enough to cut ties with. At that point they can turn to Dermody or Mayza, whoever is performing best. We can't say for sure that Dermody or Mayza would be better than Liriano at getting lefties out when they haven't done it for an extended period of time in the majors and Liriano has.
Injuries will surely hit the bullpen and it's wise to have as many options in the pen as possible. One more arm that pushes a young pitcher off the roster only adds depth. Veterans like Liriano may not have huge upside, but they have experience and you know more or less what you're getting. Also, there is nothing wrong with having the young pitchers force their way onto the roster. There are enough pitchers with options in the bullpen that if one of Dermody or Mayza forces the team's hand then they can easily move one of the struggling relievers with options to the minors.
As an added bonus, Liriano can be used for multiple innings or as an emergency starter if the team is desperate for someone to fill that role. He should be used primarily as a LOOGY, but if injuries occur he can be moved into another role quite easily. Having him in the bullpen opens up a lot of possibilities with what they can do. That type of flexibility adds value that isn't easily seen in a stat line.
The front office is familiar with Liriano and he knows many of the players so there should be a decent chance they can get him to agree to come to Toronto if they can match up on the financial details. At this point in his career he's not likely to be a dominant starter anymore. He could start in a pinch, or be a long man in the pen if that's what is needed from him, but he is best suited as a LOOGY. Right handed batters have hit him well recently, while he continues to hold left handed batters at bay. Since Liriano fits the team's need as a guy who can get outs from the left side he is worth pursuing.
