Is Justin Smoak's Breakout Sustainable?
Few Blue Jays players drew more criticism than Justin Smoak heading into the 2017 season. He had failed to live up to his prospect hype and was looking like a bust. Many fans were upset that the team signed him to a 2 year deal with an option. He had performed like a bench bat and was being paid like a bench bat. Still, some fans felt the money would have been better spent elsewhere.
2017 saw Smoak finally live up to the promise he showed in the minors and he produced a career high 38 home runs and a slash line of .270/.355/.529. His wrc+ was 132, good enough to put him in a tie with Edwin Encarnacion for 27th in baseball. Smoak had produced wrc+ marks of 103, 112, and 108 so it's not as if he hasn't had a productive bat in the past, he just hadn't shown any consistency from year to year. Every odd numbered season of his career he has been over 100 and every even numbered year he has been below. Will the trend continue in 2018?
Smoak was a top ranked prospect due to a very high walk rate, mixed with fairly good strikeout numbers. He put up huge power numbers in college, but he didn't show a lot of power early in the minors. Scouts felt that he could grow into his power due to his large frame and his success in college.
He was rushed to the majors and spent less than 150 games in the minors before making his MLB debut. During his MLB debut in 2010 he had a very good 11.6% walk rate that would have ranked 27th in baseball had he had enough plate appearances to qualify. His strikeout rate became a slight issue at 22.9% and his power was only a little above average with a .152 ISO. His BABIP was .255 and it all added up to just a 81 wrc+.
2011 saw much of the same except a boost to BABIP and a bit more power led to his first above average hitting performance with a 103 wrc+. During the first 5 years of his career his strikeout, walk and power numbers remained fairly consistent and his production mostly depended on the whims of BABIP.
The Mariners eventually gave up on Smoak and the Blue Jays were able to claim him off waivers after the 2014 season. There was some hope that Smoak could produce more power for the Jays based on his career HR/FB of 9.4% at Safeco field vs. 14.6% on the road. He was among the league leaders in average flyball distance in 2014, even if the home run numbers didn't reflect it.
The shift to Toronto seemed to do wonders for his power and he produced a new career high .243 ISO. His HR/FB shot all the way up to 25.4%. The HR/FB rate was unsustainable, but it showed that perhaps there was more power in Smoak's bat than he had shown as a Mariner. His average exit velocity of 91 MPH ranked 41st in baseball, tied with Bryce Harper and ahead of notable power hitters like Jose Abreu, Nolan Arenado and Edwin Encarnacion.
Smoak's walk rate in his first season with the Jays was 8.8%, only 0.1 above the lowest mark of his career. His strikeouts jumped to a new career high 26.2%. Add in a .254 BABIP and despite the massive boost in power he was only able to muster a 108 wrc+. Granted, 108 is still a fine wrc+, but it was 5 points below the average first baseman in 2015. As a result, he was worth only 0.6 fWAR.
2016 saw his walk rate return and he drew a free pass in 11.7% of his plate appearances. The power took a step back from his 2015 performance, but his .174 ISO still matched his previous career high. His average exit velocity actually increased from 91 MPH in 2015 to 91.4 mph in 2016. Smoak also enjoyed his best season for batted ball luck and had a .295 BABIP. The high BABIP wasn't just luck though. His 27.3 line drive percentage would have ranked tied with Joey Votto for 4th in baseball had Smoak had enough plate appearances to qualify. Unfortunately, all of those improvements were negated by a ghastly 32.8% strikeout rate. Smoak had suddenly become one of the game's top strikeout machines.
2017 was the year that all of the things Smoak had done well during his career came together in the same season. His walk rate remained high at 11.5%, his strikeouts were at a career low 20.1% and his power was a career best .259 ISO. His exit velocity dipped to 89.5 MPH, but his average launch angle of 16.9 degrees saw him to hit 38 home runs. His hard hit rate of 39.4% ranked 21st among qualified hitters.
Since 2013 Smoak's 37.7% hard hit rate ranks 25th. His 13.4% soft hit rate ranks 27th lowest. Of the 24 batters that have made more hard contact than Smoak, only 12 of them have made less soft contact. Smoak has been consistently hitting the ball hard for 5 years now. The results are just now starting to catch up.
Smoak hits an above average number of line drives and, despite hitting a lot of fly balls, he doesn't hit a lot of infield flyballs. If Smoak maintains this batted ball mix it should ensure that he can continue to have BABIP numbers similar to the .295 and .285 he posted the past 2 seasons. He wasn't particularly pull heavy last year, so he shouldn't be susceptible to the shift.
We now have 5 years of data that shows Smoak crushes the ball when he makes contact. He always knew how to draw a walk. The main thing that will determine his success going forward is whether he can maintain the low-ish strikeout rate. His contact rate was 79.4% in 2017. The exit velocity dip may have been a trade off to make more contact. He had a 79.7% contact rate in 2012 and 78.3% in 2013 so it's not like he has never made this amount of contact before.
Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are the other 2 famous Blue Jays breakout stories and they both had similar hitting profiles to Smoak. They both drew a lot of walks and had low strikeout totals, but had yet to tap into their power. Smoak is more prone to the K than either of them ever were so his chances of maintaining his performance leap is lower, but he has a lot of the tools you look for in a top power bat. Justin was rushed to the majors and had to learn the game at the highest level and he may have finally made the adjustments necessary to reach the potential so many saw in him all those years ago.
If Smoak hadn't shown all of the skills that he displayed in 2017 at some point earlier in his career I would be more skeptical of a repeat performance. Last year was the first year that he put all of his talents together and he turned into one of the game's top hitters. I wouldn't be surprised if 2017 ends up being Smoak's career year, but I think he should still be a valuable hitter going forward. A wrc+ around 115-125 seems reasonable and that should be enough to give the Blue Jays an above average first baseman for the cost of a bench bat. Not bad for a guy picked off the scrap heap.
