Toronto Blue Jays Sign Jaime Garcia
Jaime Garcia has inked a deal with the Jays for 1 year at $8MM and an option for $10MM with a $2MM buyout. The deal also includes $2MM in incentives. This is a perfectly fine deal for a pitcher of his calibre. He was essentially a league average pitcher last season. His ERA+ was 99 and his 4.41 ERA was slightly better than the league average starting pitcher ERA of 4.49. For a guy who is expected to be the Blue Jays 5th starter those are good numbers to see.
Garcia is a very good groundball pitcher, coming in at 56.2% for his career. His sinker is one of the best in baseball and would have ranked 8th in value per pitch if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. His sinker actually found the zone less often than in years past so there could even be room for him to improve with the pitch next season. Groundball pitchers seem to be something this front office values. The Blue Jays may ask Garcia to rely even more on his sinker since it can be such a valuable pitch for him and he only used it 31% of the time last year. In years where Garcia has had the most success he has kept the ball in the park. HR/FB is generally out of a pitcher's control so if last year's 14.3% can drop closer to his career rate of 12.0% we should expect to see a pretty solid year from Garcia. In 2015 when he had great fortune on flyballs with a 7.1% HR/FB rate he had a 2.43 ERA. That would have Jays fans ecstatic.
Unfortunately, Jaime Garcia also come with some serious injury concerns. He missed time in every season from 2012-2015 and made only 56 starts over that span. He has managed to avoid the DL the past 2 years. The option year is a nice bit of insurance should Garcia struggle with injuries, while also leaving the door open to have him return in 2019 should he prove himself healthy.
Some fans may be disappointed that the Jays didn't aim higher and get a guy like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. The Jays may have got a pitcher that actually isn't all that different from Lynn and Cobb though. ERA is not a good indicator of future performance. A lot of noise goes into that stat. Strikeouts, walks and groundballs are more consistent for pitchers from year to year and give a better indication of future performance. Garcia's strikeout rate was identical to Lynn's last season and his 3.77 BB/9 was just 0.10 higher than Lynn's. Garcia had a nearly 11% edge in groundball percentage. Compared to Cobb, Garcia had nearly a full strikeout per 9 more than the former Rays pitcher. Cobb had a large edge in walks with only 2.21 BB/9 and he trailed Garcia in GB% by 7%. Added all together Garcia had a 4.25 FIP compared to Lynn's 4.82 and Cobb's 4.16. Granted, Lynn and Cobb were both coming off missed seasons in 2016 and may have been shaking off some rust. Looking past ERA we sees 3 pitchers who aren't actually all that different.
Getting Garcia for only one guaranteed year for nearly half the salary Cobb and Lynn are reportedly requesting on multiyear deals makes this a good value buy for the Jays. Not having to give up a draft pick is also a good thing. Cobb and Lynn are likely better pitchers than Garcia, but not significantly better. Each of these players have injury question marks surrounding them so the slight difference in talent doesn't really make up for the big difference in asking prices. This deal is a solid bet for the Jays and a good fit for what the team needs.
With Joe Biagini now bumped from the rotation, hopefully he is sent to AAA to start the year to see if he can develop as a starter. Biagini has an option left so it's worth seeing if he has what it takes to start. Having Biagini as a starter in AAA adds to their rotation depth and allows them to pursue another reliever. You can never have too much pitching and there is nothing stopping them from using Biagini in the bullpen if a need arises there instead of the rotation.
When Garcia has been on the mound he has been an effective pitcher. He adds much needed depth to the rotation at an affordable price. The move leaves budget room to add a relief pitcher on a major league deal, or if the team is confident in the bullpen pieces they currently have then the extra money could be used to add a player during the season should the team find themselves in the playoff hunt.
