Which Toronto Blue Jays Could Breakout in 2018?
Every season a team will surprise people by outperforming their pre-season expectations. Last year the Twins and Brewers took the game by storm, with the Twins making the playoffs and the Brewers just missing out. Usually when a team surprises it's because they got breakout performances from a few of their players. These players can be top prospects who finally live up to the hype, like Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios. Or they can be lesser hyped players who found a way to maximize their talents, like Chase Anderson or Travis Shaw.
Justin Smoak was the Blue Jays' breakout player in 2017. Unfortunately, almost everyone else around him either underperformed or missed significant time with injury and the team failed to capitalize on his breakout performance. If the Blue Jays hope to be contenders in 2018 they are probably going to need another surprise performance from someone in the system.
Kevin Pillar has never been able to get his bat going. He shows flashes of being a good hitter and nearly every year he will have a 40 game stretch where he posts an OPS well over .800. Unfortunately he has yet to put it all together for an entire season. I have long been a skeptic of Pillar's bat and stats like xwOBA suggest he may not have a lot of upside at the plate. Still, despite my skepticism I have always thought there will be at least one season in his career where he rides an unusually high BABIP to a strong hitting season. With Pillar's strong center field defence and solid base running he could be very valuable if he can find a way to up his offence. In 2015 Matt Duffy had a similar strikeout, walk and power profile to Kevin Pillar. He had a .336 BABIP that year and it helped him to a 113 wrc+ and 4.7 fWAR. A season from Pillar that approaches 5 fWAR would be a huge boost to this team's playoff hopes.
Randall Grichuk has been worth 3.16 fWAR/600 in his career so far. He has beaten the league average for outfielders in fWAR/600 every season of his career, even last year in what has been his worst season. When on the field he has been an above average outfielder. He has yet to have a full season of plate appearances and if he gets regular playing time with the Jays they may be able to unlock his slugging prowess in the same way they have with Bautista, Encarnacion and Smoak. The difference between Grichuk and those players is they were high walk players who had yet to fulfill their power. Grichuk is the opposite, he doesn't walk and has shown his power. Still, Grichuk has hit the ball hard his entire career and could have a big year if he can return to the power he showed as a rookie in 2015. If Grichuk can hit 35+ bombs and continue to be strong on defence he could be a surprise 5 fWAR player over a full season of plate appearances.
Ryan Borucki had a breakout in the minors last season. If he can force his way onto the major league roster at some point in 2018 he could be a big boost to the team. Injuries have kept him from gaining much attention before 2017, but boy did he ever put people on notice last year. He has always shown a good ability to strike guys out while limiting walks and inducing groundballs. He will probably start the year in AAA unless he absolutely blows management away in spring training. If he shows the same skills he did last year he should make his way to the majors at some point in 2018 and could give the Jays another weapon in the rotation. Stroman, Sanchez and Borucki could give the Blue Jays one of the best young trios of starting pitchers in baseball.
I have been a big fan of Danny Barnes for a very long time because he was a strikeout machine in the minors. He struck out a strong 23.4% of batters he faced last year in his first full season in the majors. If he can get that number into the upper 20s he could be a very valuable piece of John Gibbons' bullpen. He worked out of the zone often last season and if he can come in the strike zone more often he has the swinging strike rate that could see him succeed. His walk numbers in the minors were quite good so he obviously has control, even if he doesn't have command. He will need his slider to become a weapon again, it was quite bad last year and as a result he was mostly just a fastball/changeup pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher so he is susceptible to the long ball. If he keeps the ball in the park and improves his k/bb we could see a sub 3 ERA from Barnes. Barnes is a risky bet for a breakout because with some poor luck on home runs he could just as easily put up an ERA approaching 5. He's a lot like a bullpen version of Marco Estrada.
Every year there are a few teams that have everything break right for them and they make the playoffs. The Jays have put themselves in a position to potentially be one of those teams. Unfortunately for the Jays they have more players where things could go wrong than guys who could take a big jump in performance. The Jays have the talent on the roster to be contenders, but they are old and more likely to suffer from injuries or regression compared to some of the younger, more athletic contenders. Still, the talent is there.
Obviously as Jays fans we would rather see a team with greater odds of making the playoffs and less reliance on good fortune, but after going for broke in 2015 and 2016 the team is actually in a better position than many would have expected. To have an outside shot at the playoffs with an ageing team and so many large contracts while having lost so many key pieces speaks to the job the front office has done to raise the floor of this team. Their job has not been easy the past couple years. The front office is working on building a team from the ground up so they are less reliant on ageing veterans. It will take time. However, I have been pleasantly surprised that in the meantime they have also been able to construct a team with an outside shot at contention. 2018 could be an exciting year for the Blue Jays if they get a few breakout performances.
