Buy Low, Sell High: Justin Smoak
After years of failing to live up to his top prospect status, Justin Smoak had a career year in 2017. With the possibility that it was just a one year blip and he returns to previous levels of production it's worth considering whether trading him at what could be his peak value is what is best for the Blue Jays.
While the idea seems nice on the surface-- buy low, sell high-- it probably isn't practical. First of all, if the Blue Jays are skeptical about whether Smoak can repeat, then the rest of the league probably is as well. With baseball more analytical than ever, teams tend to value players in a similar manner. The odds of getting a massive haul for Smoak are unlikely.
Hopeful contenders with first base situations that would be improved by adding Smoak are the Angels, Rays, Rockies, Mariners and Mets. Three of those teams are direct competitors with the Jays for the 2nd wild card so a match is highly unlikely and the Mets have a situation where they will see whether Dominic Smith can run with the 1b job and if he can't then they will go with one of their outfielders to fill the role. That leaves only the Rockies and if there is only one team bidding you can count on the price being low.
Slugging first basemen just don't have a lot of trade value right now. Logan Morrison had a similar season to Smoak last year and he remains a free agent. If a team wanted to trade for Smoak they could just go sign Morrison without having to give up talent to do so. Most contenders are set at first base which is why we're seeing rumors about Eric Hosmer, the top free agent first baseman on the market, heading to either the Royals or Padres.
The Blue Jays don't have a first base prospect knocking on the door so there isn't reason to move Smoak to keep him from blocking someone. Steve Pearce would be the most likely candidate to take over if Smoak is traded and he's not exactly the type of guy you're desperate to open up playing time for.
Smoak has one year and an option remaining on his contract. If the option is picked up the Blue Jays will end up paying him just over $10MM for 2 years of service. Even if Smoak returns to previous levels of production this contract is fair value for what he provides. If he keeps hitting like he did in 2017 then he is on one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball. The upside of keeping Smoak far outweighs the likely haul he would get in a trade.
If Smoak can prove that 2017 wasn't a fluke then his trade value would likely be higher at the trade deadline than it is now. Perhaps a team will have developed a need and if the Jays are out of contention it may be worth considering at that point.
