Get Excited About Vladimir Guerrero Jr
MLB Pipeline has been rolling out their prospect rankings and Toronto's Vladimir guerrero Jr. took the top spot in their third baseman ranking and the third spot among all prospects. More impressively, he received MLB Pipeline's first ever 80 grade hit tool. Guerrero Jr.'s bat to ball skills are among the best that scouts have ever seen from a player this age.
The Steamer projection system featured on Fangraphs already projects him to be an above average hitter at the major league level based on what he has shown in his minor league career, and it's hard to argue with it. In 181 MiLB games he has slashed .305/.402/.473. Guerrero Jr. started 2017 in Single-A Midwest League and dominated pitchers who were more than 3 years his senior. He hit .318/.409/.480 and earned a promotion to High-A where he slashed an even better .333/.450/.494 against pitchers nearly 5 years older than him. That level of production against much older competition is unheard of.
Vladdy Jr's 17.2 BB% vs. 13.4 K% shows that he has elite strike zone judgement. Elite even seems like too light of a description for how good he is. It's rare for a player to walk more often than he strikes out, and even rarer to do it with power. Joey Votto is the best MLB comp for what Guerrero has done in the minors and Votto's career 158 wrc+ has him in a tie with Stan Musial for 10th all time.
Guerrero Jr. has yet to turn 19 years old and will start 2018 in AA. A promotion to the majors this year isn't out of the question if he continues to show elite hitting skills in the upper minors. The Blue Jays could have a player who contributes at a high level right from the start.
Cynics like to point out that prospects fail all the time, but Guerrero isn't most prospects. Hitters who have no major flaws rarely fail to translate their talents to the highest level. Most top prospects who failed in the majors had major question marks surrounding some aspect of their bat. Guerrero is as complete a minor league hitter that you could ask for.
The name that continues to come up when talking about Guerrero Jr.'s hitting skills is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera was an elite hitting teenager who excelled against much older competition. Cabrera spent his age 18 season at Single A and hit well, but wasn't even close to as successful as Guerrero Jr. was last season.
Like Guerrero Jr., Mike Trout also spent his age 18 season split Single A and High-A and put up remarkably similar numbers to Vladdy Jr. Trout hit .341/.428/.490 between the two levels compared to Guerrero's .323/.425/..485. The young Blue Jays third baseman has a more advanced eye than Trout had at that stage and doesn't have any strikeout issues.
Guerrero doesn't have the speed and defensive skills that make Trout the best player in baseball, but he has the same type of bat that has led Trout to produce a 169 wrc+ through his first 6 seasons. If Guerrero continues to develop the skills that have made him one of the top prospects in baseball he won't just be a superstar, he could end up one of the greatest hitters who ever lived. That's worth getting excited about.
