Brewers Snag A Couple of Blue Jays Targets and That's Not Necessarily A Bad Thing
Within the span of a couple hours last night the Milwaukee Brewers traded for Christian Yelich and then signed Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year $80MM contract. Both players had been linked to the Jays this offseason and it's easy to see why. The Blue Jays had a need to improve their outfield and Yelich and Cain were the two best options available.
The Jays outfield would certainly look a lot more solid with one of those stars, but the cost was probably too much to make it worth it considering where the team sits on the win curve. Adding the 4 or 5 wins that they would bring with them would have put them in a better position to compete for the second wild card but they would probably still lack the talent to be a strong challenger for the division.
Interestingly enough the Cain deal looks very similar to the one the Blue Jays gave out to Russell Martin. Cain is only 2 months younger than Martin was when he started his Blue Jays career. Cain signed for nearly identical terms, taking in just $2MM less than what Martin received over 5 years. Cain also has significant performance bonuses in his contract, so he is likely to receive more money than Martin has on his deal.
Russell Martin was signed to give the Jays star level production at the front of the contract when they needed a high calibre catcher to push them over the top. The team knew the back-end of his contract would mean paying him more than the production he would provide. The team probably expected a little more from him the past two years, but he has provided pretty much what could have been expected from him when the contract was signed.
If Jays fans hate the idea of paying Martin $20MM each of the next 2 seasons, how would they feel about paying Cain similar money for his age 35 and 36 seasons? Many fans seem to resent the Martin contract and he was a key piece in taking the team to consecutive league championships. Cain would be brought in to help the team maybe compete for the wild card. What do you think the fan reaction would be to Cain's contract if the Jays missed the playoffs early in his deal and were stuck with an overpaid declining star? Personally, I'd rather have an overpaid and declining Donaldson on the roster in a couple years. Having Cain around would have made it harder to justify a Donaldson extension.
The Cain deal is fair value for a player of his talent, but likely not worth it for a team like the Jays who are still a long shot for the playoffs at the front end of his contract. It's the type of move a team makes when they're putting the final touches on a contender.
As for Yelich, a similar argument applies. Yelich is a better bet than Cain to provide all-star production over the next 5 years, but it would require giving up a lot of pieces that could play a role in making the Jays contenders in the future. The Brewers sent Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto to Miami. A similar deal from the Jays would have probably been Bo Bichette, Anthony Alford, Richard Urena and Jon Harris. No prospect is a sure thing, but one of those players is likely to provide excellent value on a cheap contract in the next few years.
Teams rely on cheap young talent to build winners. The Astros hoarded young talent and then added the final pieces when the time was right. The Royals did the same thing. The Brewers feel they are close to contention and are in the process of doing just that. The Jays don't have as clear of a path to contention as those teams did, or do, when they made deals to push themselves over the top. (side note: Fangraphs projections have the Brewers at 76-86 even with Cain and Yelich, so they may be further from contention than they think they are)
It's easy to get hung up on star players and the value they bring, but the difference between a guy like Grichuk and Yelich isn't as large as some would seem to believe. Yelich would bring 2 or 3 extra wins over Grichuk, not enough to push the Jays up to the level of the current Yankees and Red Sox squads. The Jays would be better off trading for a payer like Yelich in a couple seasons when they are better situated to compete using the young talent they have spent the past few seasons building. Patience is needed for this Blue Jays team. They have the young guys, but the time is not right to push their chips into the center of the table and really go for it.
