About Kevin Pillar's Bat

I have long been a Kevin Pillar skeptic. His first two partial seasons gave little indication that he could hit enough to be a viable major league starter. He combined a high strikeout rate with little power and an abysmal walk rate. His outlook as a hitter wasn't promising. I was questioning whether he had what it takes to be even a 4th outfielder.

In 2015 he got his first shot at holding down a starting role and made the most of it by putting up 4.3 fWAR. The majority of that production came from his elite defence. The man known as Superman registered his best batting line to date: .278/.314/.399, but it was still only good for a below average 94 wrc+. He ranked 2nd among all center fielders in Fangraph's base running metric BsR, behind only Mookie Betts. Add it all together and he was the 7th most valuable center fielder in baseball that year.

While he still took a miniscule number of walks and hit for minimal power, he lowered his strikeout rate from 24.6% in 2013-2014 to a very good 13.5% in 2015. This drop in strikeouts was crucial to him finding success as a major league hitter. It appeared that he might be able to hit just enough to make him a solid starter based on his elite defence. Despite the improvements, questions remained surrounding his bat in 2015. He had the lowest gap in baseball between his in zone swing rate and his out of zone swing rate. Pillar had a better than average swinging strike rate, so it's not like he couldn't make contact, he was just swinging at the wrong pitches.

2016 saw more of the same strike zone issues. Pillar swung less often but made less contact with the pitches out of the zone that he offered at. His strikeout rate rose to 15.4% and his HR/FB ratio dropped from 6.6% to 4.5%. The backward steps in the power and strikeout rates caused his wrc+ to drop to 81 and his fWAR dropped a full win to 3.3. Pillar was still an above average center fielder, but relied almost entirely on defence to be a valuable player.

In 2017 Pillar showed early signs of life and 48 games into the season he was batting .289/.341/.472. His plate discipline stats improved and his gap between swing rate in the zone and out of the zone was nearly double what it was in 2015 when he had the worst rate in baseball. Then in his 49th game he went 0-6 and the wheels fell off his season. He swung at fewer strikes, chased more balls, and his wrc+dropped from 115 on May 28th to 85 by season's end. With his defence still solidly above average, but no longer elite, he produced a full season career worst 1.9 fWAR. Pillar drew walks at a career high 5.2% and for the first time in his career his Isolated Slugging percentage approached league average, falling .002 short with a .148 ISO. Some of the drop in his offensive production can be chalked up to a .280 BABIP after posting identical .306s the previous 2 seasons.

In all 3 of Kevin Pillar's full seasons we have seen him put up streaks of 50 games where he looks like an above average hitter with an OPS around .800, but the final results at the end of the season just aren't there. Consistency at the plate is not his forte.

So what are we to make of Kevin Pillar heading into 2018? There are some who feel the time is right to trade him and move on with someone new in center field. There is a risk that his defence could decline and his value will have disappeared, so perhaps it is best to trade him when his value is still high. But is it wise to give up on a guy who has shown flashes of being an above average hitter who also has one of the best gloves in the league at a premium position?

I'm going to present you with two players.

Player A: 2076 career plate appearances, .264/.302/.390, 85 wrc+, 3.19 fWAR/650 plate appearances, 3 time gold glove finalist, age 29

Player B: 2429 career plate appearances, .247/.295/.389, 88 wrc+, 3.16 fWAR/650 plate appearances,

2 time gold glove winner, age 28

Player A as you may have already guessed is Kevin Pillar. Player B is Devon White before the Blue Jays traded for him. Devon White was an elite defender with an inconsistent bat who blossomed later in his career. The move to the Blue Jays saw him put up 21 fWAR over the next 5 seasons in Toronto and hit a much better .270/.327/.432.

While Kevin Pillar has been frustrating to watch at the plate, there is also a chance that he could emerge in the same way White did. Even if Pillar's bat doesn't come around and his defence stays at the merely good level of last year (rather than the elite level of the previous 2), he is worth about 2 WAR per season, which is roughly league average. His overall production won't hurt the team as it stands and there is definite upside that could make him an elite player should his bat come around to the level he has shown for a third of a season at a time. Remember, Pillar has only 3 full seasons in the majors and it took Devon White until his 5th full season before breaking out with the bat.

Pillar has been a grinder his entire career and has proven the doubters wrong every step of the way. I have been one of his doubters and I remain skeptical, but I'm starting to come around to the idea that I too may have been wrong about him all along.