Which MiLB Free Agent Pitchers Could Help The Blue Jays?
Each year there are a few players who will sign contracts as minor league free agents and go on to play a role with the big club. Justin Turner, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill are a few recent names who have signed as minor league free agents and went on to have success in the majors. These players are outliers, as most players on MiLB deals don't produce in the majors, but they are an example that every once in a while a minor league deal can pay huge dividends. Minor league deals are generally risk free and have nothing but upside. I've compiled a list of pitchers who remain on the open market who have shown skills that may translate to big league success and could be bargains for the Toronto Blue Jays. Keep in mind that these guys are merely lottery tickets and the odds are that they likely won't play a key role in the majors this year.
John Stilson is a personal favorite as I have been following him since his college days. He moved quickly through the Jays system but has yet to break into the majors. He has a career 2.75 ERA at AAA and could yet prove to be a useful part of a bullpen.
Tim Cooney had a strong 6 starts in his 2015 MLB debut but has since dealt with injuries. If he can put the arm issues behind him he has a chance to regain his former potential as a back-end starter with solid control.
Scott Barlow put up a phenomenal 2.10 ERA in 19 AA starts last season thanks to a very high 10.4 K/9. He maintained the high K rate after being promoted to AAA but control and home run issues led to an ugly 7.24 ERA in 7 starts. The high number of strikeouts are intriguing and could lead to Barlow becoming a sneaky good pick-up.
Sean Nolin has missed each of the past 2 seasons due to Tommy John surgery. If he is able to prove himself healthy he is worth looking at seeing if he can regain some of the skills that earned him a few cups of coffee in the majors between 2013 and 2015. He has a 3.02 ERA in the minor leagues and has averaged a strikeout an inning.
Excellent control has been Dylan Unsworth's calling card in the minors. He has given up only 1.3 BB/9 while making his way through the Mariners system. He continued that trend and allowed just 1.5 free passes per 9 innings and it led to a 3.30 ERA primarily at AA, with 2 starts at AAA. When he has been able to avoid the long ball he has put up quality numbers. He does not strike out a lot of batters so the high rate of contact would likely lead to a spike in home runs allowed at the game's highest level. With that said, anybody who allows as few walks as Unsworth deserves a few cracks at AAA to prove themselves worthy of a shot in the majors.
Forrest Snow makes the list simply because his name is a great fit for Canada's only team. Moving on.
Jonathan Aro has a career 2.96 ERA at AAA and in 2017 he showed that he might have what it takes to make it back to the majors. He struck out 10.1 per 9 and walked just 2.3, good for a 4.36 k/bb.
Tyler Jones has produced excellent strikeout numbers at every stop along the way. He reached AAA with the Yankees last season and could earn a look in a big league bullpen if he keeps sitting batters down at such a high pace (10.9 k/9 in the minors).
Alejandro Chacin got a taste of the majors after serving as a closer in the Reds system. He has a 2.46 ERA throughout his MiLB career and has shown swing and miss stuff. Still only 24, Chacin will likely earn another shot at the big show.
Jeff Johnson has gradually climbed through the Indians system posting strong strikeout numbers and limiting runs. Steamer projects him for a 4.32 ERA in the majors. That number is not awfully inspiring but a lot of that has to do with the 4.89 BB/9 he is projected for. Last year when he walked a ghastly 6.05 batters per 9 is the only time he has walked more than the 4.89 he is projected for. If he can get his walks down closer to his past rates he could surprise some as a strong bullpen piece.
It's hard to believe that Justin Masterson is still only 32. The veteran groundballer is still working towards making a major league comeback and he helped his case by putting up a 4.13 ERA for the Dodgers AAA affiliate last year. A 4.13 ERA at AAA doesn't exactly scream major league comeback, but he could be a valuable veteran presence in Buffalo and a decent depth piece.
I'm a sucker for guys who walk very few batters and keep the ball on the ground. All the better when they're a submariner as well. Ben Rowen was somebody who I had long hoped would get a chance in the majors just to see whether the gaudy minor league numbers would translate. He has been beat up in his brief major league career, but that 2.21 ERA in the minors keeps me interested in whether he can have a career similar to Chad Bradford. Between his MLB struggles and his poor performance in AAA last year I'm not going to keep my hopes up, but a guy can dream.
CC Lee is a name that has intrigued me for a long time due to a high strikeout rate and decent walk rate. He struck out 12.8 per 9 at AAA last year but was burned with a .357 BABIP and minor league career high 3.86 BB/9. If he can maintain the high whiff rate and get his walks down to a more manageable number there's a chance he could see the majors again.
Tim Collins was a strikeout monster in the Jays minor league system before being shipped to Atlanta in the Yunel Escobar deal. He eventually found success in the majors with the Royals and even put up 12 k/9 in 2012. Injuries have stalled his career and he was atrocious in 2017 after missing the previous 2 seasons. A return to form is unlikely, however, minor league deals are lottery tickets anyway and it might be worth a shot bringing him back to see if he can regain some of what made him a big part of the Royals bullpen from 2011-2014.
Neil Ramirez had filthy strikeout numbers in the majors and AAA last year, but that was about all he did well. Anybody who can miss bats the way he does has a chance at breaking out if everything clicks. He has had success in the majors in the past and is a worthwhile gamble to plug into the AAA bullpen and see if he can harness his stuff.
Paco Rodriguez stormed all the way to the majors in his first year as a pro and looked primed to be a fixture in the Dodgers bullpen for years. Injuries got in the way of that plan and he is now looking to reestablish himself. He missed much of 2015, all of 2016 and most of last season as well. If he can prove himself healthy he could pick up where he left off before being bit by the injury bug. He is still only 26 and has produced a 2.53 ERA and 1.3 fWAR in 85.1 innings against the game's toughest competition.
It's a group of flawed pitchers, but that's to be expected, otherwise they wouldn't be available as a minor league free agent in the first place. The point isn't to sign a sure-thing stud, but to try and find lightning in a bottle. These pitchers all have qualities that could make them suitable for a big league job and could be one adjustment from carving out a solid big league career. Or, in the case of Masterson, continue one.
