Blue Jays Add Randal Grichuk To Crowded Outfield
In what has been perhaps the slowest offseason in recent memory, the hot stove is beginning to heat up for the Toronto Blue Jays. Ross Atkins has added slugging outfielder Randal Grichuk in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. Going the other way are relief pitcher Dominic Leone and pitching prospect Conner Greene. If the Blue Jays' outfield wasn't already crowded, it certainly is now. More importantly, the outfield is improved. This is not an elite group by any means, but it is a group that gives manager John Gibbons options.
Grichuk is capable of playing all 3 outfield positions, something that could come in handy when Gibbons wants to play match-ups. This will allow each player to be used in a way that gives them the best chance to succeed, rather than forcing guys to play roles that may expose them. Many have noted that Grichuk has a similar hitting profile to Teoscar Hernandez. This is mostly true, however, Grichuk offers better defence and versatility as well as more on the basepaths. In a year when every marginal win will matter for the Jays it is a better move to go with a guy like Grichuk over a less predictable player in Hernandez.
Plate discipline is a real issue with Grichuk. His 5.9% walk rate was well below the league average of 8.5% and his strikeout rate of 30.1% was also far off the league's pace of 21.6%. Power is where Grichuk's bat provides value and despite the terrible walk and strikeout numbers he was able to post a 94 wrc+ thanks to his .235 ISO. A 94 wrc+ is still below the non-pitcher league average of 100 so it's not like he has a game changing bat, but he did put up 138 in 2015 and is at 108 for his career.
What this means for the rest of the team's outfielders remains to be seen. It is possible one of them could be moved for pitching help. Steve Pearce is a nice bat but miscast as an outfielder. He is nice insurance policy in case Morales or Smoak struggle or are hit with injury. It is possible the team could go into the year with 5 outfielders on the roster. Doing so would likely mean Aledmys Diaz starts in the minors and only 7 men in the bullpen. The 7 man bullpen seems like the less likely option.
As for what went the other way, Dominic Leone is coming off a very strong season and his departure may cause a bit of a hole in a bullpen that was anything but a sure thing to produce in 2018. Leone projected to have the 3rd best ERA in the team's bullpen. Relievers are volatile and it's hard to know what you'll get from them from one year to the next. Losing Leone makes the current bullpen weaker, but that is something that can be addressed through free agency. The team currently has a lot of relievers with options so they can bring in a few steady veterans and let the rest sort it out through whomever performs the best.
Conner Greene appears likely headed for the bullpen. He has a nasty fastball that can hit 100 MPH but lacks the command to succeed as a starter. His secondary pitches also make it difficult to project him to have a successful career in the rotation. There is still time for him to develop so it would be unwise to write him off completely.
A relief pitcher can only provide so much value, so Leone's upside is not nearly as high as Grichuk's. Leone provided 1.5 fWAR last season and that is likely his ceiling going forward. Grichuk produced a 1.4 fWAR and that is most likely his floor going forward. If the Jays are going to feel a sting from this trade it's going to be because Greene finds a way to harness his nasty stuff and becomes a solid starting pitcher. He has shown little indication of that happening so far in his minor league career so it is a worthwhile gamble.
Grichuk is a flawed player and that is why the Jays were able to get him for a relief pitcher and a prospect with serious question marks. The Jays' new outfielder has the glove and base running skills to be around a league average player even with his hitting issues, and he has the upside to be more if he can find a way to do more at the plate.
All in all it's a fine deal. Mostly worthy of a shrug, much like the Granderson deal. It shouldn't hurt the team and has the potential to pay off in a big way.
