Is A Toronto Blue Jays Rebuild The Answer In 2018?
There has been a lot of talk among Toronto Blue Jays fans about whether the team should engage in a rebuild. With the Yankees coming off a playoff appearance and looking stronger than they have in years, and the Boston Red Sox returning a solid team that won the AL East last season, it is understandable that Blue Jays fans would feel that the window has closed on this team's chances of winning. Yes, winning the division appears very unlikely and would probably require a perfect storm of things to go the Jays' way to pull off a pennant victory. With that said, the Blue Jays still remain a contender for the second wild card. This may seem hard to believe for some of the fans clamoring for a rebuild, but this current group of Blue Jays projects as the 6th best team in the American League according to Fangraphs. Currently the Los Angeles Angels sit 5 projected wins ahead of Toronto for the second wild card. Tearing down a team that sits so close to playoff contention doesn't make a lot of sense and, based on the moves made by the teams' front office, they seem to feel the same way. Yes, Toronto finished with a 76-86 record last year, but it's not as simple as saying "They were bad last year and didn't bring in anybody special this year, therefore they will be bad again." Much of last year's struggles had to do with injuries to key pieces of the team and a lack of depth to cover for those injuries. Josh Donaldson missed a third of the season. A healthy 2018 would go a long way toward moving this roster into playoff contention. Aaron Sanchez followed up his 2016 AL ERA title by missing almost the entire 2017 season. If he can put the blister issues behind him, Toronto should have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation between Sanchez and Stroman. Devon Travis has been worth about 3.8 fWAR/600 in his short, injury riddled career. He is capable of being an All-Star talent if he can remain on the field. Russell Martin appeared in a career low 91 games but still provided better-than-your-average-catcher offence and his usual steady defence. Troy Tulowitzki missed nearly two thirds of the season and was ineffective when on the field. Nobody can expect all of these players to have healthy and productive seasons, but if even a few of them stay on the field more often than last year we can expect more wins from them.
Better health from their stars isn't the only thing that will make the 2018 squad better than the 2017 team. Ross Atkins has done a nicer job of building depth, something that was sorely lacking last year. In the not unlikely case of missed time for Devon Travis or Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto will not have to trot out Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney for 800+ plate appearances. The addition of Yangervis Solarte means they can cover many of those plate appearances with someone who has provided roughly league average production over the past 4 seasons. Solarte's versatility in the field, switch hitting ability, and low strikeout bat will be an excellent upgrade for the Blue Jays' bench. Aledmys Diaz is a wild card because we can't be sure what to expect from him. Still, even in his down year he provided more value to the Cardinals than either Goins or Barney provided the Jays.
Which brings me to Jose Bautista. The franchise icon had a miserable season last year. The bottom fell out from under one of the greatest Blue Jays in history and it's sad to say but his absence from the 2018 roster will be considered addition through subtraction. Basically anybody Toronto sends out there will be an improvement from what he provided last year. The team has a strong group of outfield prospects in the upper minors, something that was missing last year, and the front office will be able to pick whoever is performing best out of Hernandez, Alford, Smith Jr and Pompey should a need arise for outfield help. The current group of Pearce, Carrera, Pillar, Grichuk and Granderson isn't going to frighten opponents and will likely be a below average group, however with the prospect capital in AAA they should be able to hold down the fort until one of the young guys forces their way up, takes a spot and runs with it.
Another aspect to acquiring depth pieces is that it keeps the team's top prospects in the minors a little longer and could cause the team to gain an extra year of control over those players. If Granderson can come in and give the Jays the type of production they are hoping for it could mean a player like Alford is still around an extra year when the team is better equipped to fight for the division title, rather than use up a year of service during a season where they have an outside shot at a one game playoff. That alone could make the signing quite valuable. There is nothing wrong with having the youngsters force their way onto the team.
One issue that hindered the team last year and has yet to be fully addressed is the lack of rotation depth. We still don't know how Marco Estrada will bounce back from last year's struggles, if at all, and Joe Biagini, while still talented and capable of holding a rotation spot, would probably be better suited as the team's #6 starter to be called on in case of injury or underperformance. The team's current 6-8 starters appear to be Ryan Borucki, Thomas Pannone and Taylor Guerrieri. Between them they have combined for 3 starts at AAA. 2017 saw them give 27 starts to guys like Mat Latos, Casey Lawrence, and Mike Bolsinger. We should expect at least a similar number of starts to go to pitchers not currently in the team's 5 man rotation. Failing to acquire another pitcher to push Joe Biagini into the #6 role could mean giving valuable starts to pitchers who may not be ready for the big show. In a year where the Jays are a marginal contender they can hardly afford that.
Is this the perfect roster? Absolutely not. Does a lot need to go right for them to make the playoffs? For sure. However, any team that makes the playoffs has a season where more things go right than wrong. This version of the Toronto Blue Jays still features a lot of talented ballplayers. The problems that plagued the team last year have been largely addressed. I know a lot of fans are chomping at the bit for the team to make a splashy move and acquire an impact talent like Lorenzo Cain, JD Martinez or Christian Yelich, but with the realities of the team's budget they are better off focussing on raising the team's floor and surrounding the team's solid core with a higher calibre of supporting cast.
You have to squint if you want to see a playoff team in this current Blue Jays roster, but that should be reason enough to go for it. The second wild card means any team within spitting distance of contention has a shot at sneaking into the playoffs if things break right. Rebuilding can be long and difficult and is not a guarantee for success. The returns for star players who have been traded this offseason have been underwhelming and any potential return for Donaldson is likely significantly less than those calling for a rebuild likely imagine. The excitement surrounding the Blue Jays is something Toronto hasn't seen in two decades and the Blue Jays have led the American League in attendance each of the past 2 seasons as a result. It would be foolish to squander that excitement by throwing in the towel before the season even starts. Another ugly season will see fans disappear in droves and that loss of revenue will make a rebuild even more difficult. The best course of action is to give it the ol' college try and reassess at the deadline.
